The Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles offenses are going in different directions. Indy leads the NFL in scoring (194 points) while outscoring its opponents by 78 points. The Eagles come into this week on a two-game losing streak while struggling to run the ball (3.7 YPR), and their offensive line has given up 18 sacks.
Pittman comes off a season-low game (2/20 on three targets). He scored four times over six starts, but gained over 41 yards receiving in two matchups (6/80/1 and 6/73/1). Indianapolis has had him on the field for 84.2% of its plays, compared to 53.5% by Josh Downs and 51.9% by Alec Pierce (two missed games).
Shawn Childs
The Chargers rank sixth in wide receiver defense (156.10 fantasy points), with three teams ahead of them playing one fewer game. Four wide receivers gained over 90 receiving yards.
Pittman is on pace to catch 79 catches for 830 yards and 11 touchdowns on 108 targets. When at his best from 2021 to 2023, he posted higher output seasons (88/1,082/6, 99/925/4, and 109/1,152/4).
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Devonta Smith (6) makes a catch against Denver Broncos cornerback Riley Moss (21) in the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The missing link in Smith’s profile this year has been touchdowns (1 – 7, 7, and 8 over the previous three seasons). His best two games (8/60/1 and 8/114) came at home. The Eagles gave him six targets or fewer in four matchups (3, 6, 2, and 5). Last season, Smith averaged 10.14 fantasy points at home, compared to 15.80 on the road.
As I mentioned in the A.J. Brown/Chris Olave start/sit decision, the Vikings lead the wide receivers defense (37/483/2 on 63 targets). They’ve faced Chicago (14/144/1), Atlanta (5/69), Cincinnati (6/65), Pittsburgh (7/139/1), and Cleveland (5/66), which spells a favorable wide receiver schedule. In addition, Minnesota has faced only 138 pass attempts (27.6 per game), which is well below last season (32.2). DK Metcalf (5/126/1 on five targets) exploited some of their weaknesses in coverage vs. big physical wideouts.
Smith is on pace to catch 82 passes for 910 yards and three touchdowns on 99 targets. He beat those outputs in 2022 (96/1,196/7) and 2023 (81/1,066/7) when the Eagles were more proficient in throwing the ball.
Both players have top-18 wide receiver upside, while playing in offenses with almost identical run/pass splits (IND – 48.6/51.4 and PHI – 48.5/51.5). The scoring edge via the pass favors the Colts’ wide receiver, making Pittman the winner in this start/sit decision.
