Nebraska’s loss to UCLA in 2024 was a major setback for the team, as they aimed to make their first bowl game appearance in nearly 10 years. The stakes for the 2025 game are nearly as high. A win would give the Huskers their first winning regular season since 2016. The Huskers faced a big challenge with star quarterback Dylan Raiola suffering a season-ending injury against USC. Now, all focus shifts to another talented true freshman, TJ Lateef, as the Huskers hope to move forward in 2025.
Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. / Arbitrary Analytics
Lateef has performed well in his limited opportunities but remains a step below the highly touted recruit Dylan Raiola was. However, his mobility could give the Huskers some additional flexibility that they lacked with Raiola. A major factor in his potential success in this game will depend on how much the coaches tailor the game plan to match his skill set.
Running total EPA for Dylan Raiola, TJ Lateef, and Nico Iamaleava in 2025. / Arbitrary Analytics
UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava had one of the most notable stories of the 2025 college football offseason. His standoff with Tennessee over NIL funding led to him being essentially traded to UCLA for Bruin incoming transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar, who ended up with the Volunteers.
Iamaleava is a talented quarterback who led Tennessee to the playoffs in 2024. His passing statistics have declined since last season. He’s already thrown more interceptions (7) in eight games than he did in 13 games in 2024 (5). He was once considered a first-round talent at quarterback, but his performance at UCLA has limited his draft potential. Despite this, his experience and skill still pose a tough challenge for the Huskers’ secondary.
Top UCLA rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. / Arbitrary Analytics
Iamaleava is also the Bruins’ biggest rushing threat this season. He leads the team in carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns. While he’s had plenty of runs for negative yardage, he’s also a major threat to run for 10+ yards. If you exclude the sacks UCLA has taken, they are a top 15 rushing team in 2025 in terms of EPA* per rush. Jayden Maiava and the Trojans provided the Bruins with the blueprint for how to beat the Nebraska defense.
*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.
The Huskers’ rushing attack has been a one-man show in 2025, with Emmett Johnson having the best season for a Nebraska running back since Ameer Abdullah. The change at quarterback, however, may have a bigger impact on the running game than the passing game. TJ Lateef is a much bigger threat in the running game than Dylan Raiola was. While Emmett Johnson will likely continue to get plenty of work, Lateef could have the best day on the ground by a Husker other than Johnson this season.
Top Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. / Arbitrary Analytics
While UCLA might rack up rushing yards against the Blackshirts, Nebraska will be able to return the favor. As poor as Nebraska has been at defending the run, UCLA has been worse. Only Colorado (215 YPG) gives up more yards on the ground per game than UCLA (196) among power conference teams. Run-the-ball guy should be very happy in Lincoln this Saturday. The only thing that will limit Emmett Johnson on the ground is how many yards TJ Lateef is able to take for himself.
This game will resemble a typical November Big Ten football matchup, even if the teams are far from traditional Big Ten powerhouses. Both the Huskers and Bruins excel at running the ball but struggle with their run defenses. While Nico Iamaleava is a talented player both through the air and on the ground, Nebraska should be able to key on him and limit the damage he does on the scoreboard, even if he has a good day in the box score.
Emmett Johnson is the top player in this game, and Nebraska should involve him heavily. I predict he will have over 30 touches, and the Huskers will rely on him to secure a close victory in Pasadena.
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