The Los Angeles Chargers have been on a dead sprint since July 16. That day, the Chargers reported for training camp, and for four months, the grind has not stopped. They started training camp before any other NFL team. They played in the first preseason game, in Canton, Ohio, on July 31. They flew to South America for their season opener. They have made three additional trips to the East Coast, including two to Florida, before Thanksgiving.
The cumulative toll seemed to add up for the Chargers in a shocking and embarrassing blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Chargers now head into their bye, and coach Jim Harbaugh said players, coaches and staffers will be off Tuesday through the weekend. “Refresh, regroup,” Harbaugh said. They need it right now, maybe more than any other team in the league.
“The rest could be good for us,” quarterback Justin Herbert conceded Sunday in Jacksonville.
When the Chargers return, they will be staring down a six-game stretch that will decide their season. The Chargers are 7-4 and currently hold the sixth seed in the AFC playoff race. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Chargers have about a 64 percent chance of making the postseason.
The final stretch begins with a home game against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13. The Chargers then host the defending Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night in Week 14. They finish the season, in order, at the Kansas City Chiefs, at the Dallas Cowboys, at home against the Houston Texans and at the Denver Broncos.
The NFL announced the schedule in May. Even at that early date, the final five games looked like they would present the toughest stretch of the season. That has come to fruition. The Eagles are the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs and Texans are 5-5. They will be hungry and desperate when they face the Chargers in December. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is playing some of the best football of his career. Dallas has been a top-five offense this season by expected points added per play, according to TruMedia.
The Chargers’ path to the postseason must begin with a win over the Raiders coming out of the bye. That feels non-negotiable. The Raiders fell to 2-8 after losing to the Cowboys on Monday night, their fourth loss in a row. The Chargers cannot be dropping winnable games at this point in the season. If they beat the Raiders, the Chargers’ playoff odds improve to about 69 percent. If they lose to the Raiders, the odds fall to about 41 percent. The Chargers will be heavily favored in the game.
The Chargers need to find three wins over these final six games to get to 10-7. They are tied with the Broncos for the second-best conference record among AFC teams, at 6-2. Conference record is the second tie-breaking measure for wild-card spots, after head-to-head matchups. That could come into play with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, two wild-card contenders who are not on the Chargers’ schedule this season.
They have head-to-head wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Broncos and Chiefs. They have head-to-head losses against the Indianapolis Colts and Jaguars. Then there are those remaining games against the Texans, Chiefs and Broncos.
The Chargers will have to beat multiple playoff contenders to get into the postseason. The three best teams they face over the rest of the season are the Eagles, Broncos and Chiefs. The Chargers already beat the Chiefs in Week 1 and the Broncos in Week 3. But they were a far healthier team then, with star tackle Joe Alt starting both those games. Alt is out for the season with an ankle injury.
If the Chargers lose to the Eagles, Broncos and Chiefs, their playoff odds drop to around 27 percent. The Chargers would have to beat the Raiders, Cowboys and Texans to get their playoff odds back well above 50 percent. Find three wins. That has to be the goal. The benchmark in the AFC this season is shaping up to be 10 wins.
The Chargers must rebound from the Jaguars loss to find those three wins. So many of their weaknesses were exposed in Sunday’s listless performance. They are inconsistent in run defense. With Alt and tackle Rashawn Slater out for the season, the Chargers are struggling to protect Herbert, who has been pressured on over 40 percent of his dropbacks.
“We have some football issues that have to be fixed,” Harbaugh said Monday.
The defensive fronts the Chargers have to block down the stretch are concerning. Houston is second in the league in pressure rate, according to TruMedia. The Texans destroyed the Chargers’ offensive line in last year’s playoffs, when Alt and Slater were healthy. The Broncos are fifth in pressure rate. The Eagles are eighth. The Chiefs and Cowboys are also in the top 10.
The Chargers have to find stability along their offensive line. That could mean starting Jamaree Salyer at left tackle over Trevor Penning and Austin Deculus. The most consistent play of Salyer’s career has come at left tackle, including this season when he filled in for the second half in a win over the Tennessee Titans. Harbaugh said Monday that Salyer is an “option” to start at left tackle.
How the Chargers manage these defensive fronts will be a major factor in determining the outcome of this season. Herbert was pressured on 39.1 percent of his dropbacks against the Jaguars.
“We know we’re capable,” Harbaugh said of his offensive line. “We’ve had games where we were more than capable and played very well.”
The stage is set.
The Chargers will rest and recover, and then the sprint picks up again.
Can they beat the rest of the AFC playoff hopefuls to the finish line?
