We’re headed into the final week of the fantasy football regular season for most teams. Every decision has the potential to make our break our year. These are the stands and fades I’m putting my season on the line for.
▶ Quarterback
Start: Sam Darnold, Seahawks
It’s been a rough few weeks for Darnold. The journeyman passer threw three touchdowns and five interceptions in November. Vegas, however, expects a return to form versus Atlanta. Like Darnold, the Falcons’ pass defense began the year on a tear, only to take a tumble as of late. Atlanta ranks 18th in EPA per dropback allowed since Week 10 after sitting at 11th through eight games. Sportsbooks have the Seahawks with a 25.75 implied team total, the fourth-highest mark of the week. Darnold leads the league in YPA (12.6) on play action and the Falcons are a below-average unit by both YPA and touchdown rate allowed when facing play action. I’ll side with Vegas here and predict a bounce-back as well.
Start: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
It’s an ugly start, but Lawrence’s Jags have a 22.75 implied team total. That is the highest for any quarterback who can be considered a streaming option. The Colts are a good but not great defense on most fronts. They rank 13th in EPA per dropback allowed and 10th in rush EPA. This split has opponents targeting their secondary with a +2% pass rate over expected this year. Lawrence has quietly crept his way into the QB1 conversation over the last month. He now ranks as the QB14 on the year, boosted by five rushing touchdowns. That is a bit fluky, but Lawrence has been one of the most effective—and most used—quarterbacks at the goal line this year. His seven inside-the-five attempts trail only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts among passers. Between an uptick in passing volume and the potential for a rushing score, Lawrence is one of the best streaming options this week.
Sit: Justin Herbert, Chargers
On plays without left tackle Joe Alt on the field, the Chargers rank 27th in EPA per dropback and 15th in passing success rate. Coming out of their bye in Week 13, they appeared to find some stability in their post-Alt era and handled business against the lowly Raiders. They did this via a -11% PROE.
Herbert’s broken finger on his left hand certainly played into the run-heavy approach. The finger will still be broken on Monday when they play the Eagles. Philly’s defense has generated pressure at the 11th-highest rate this year and was just manhandled by the Bears’ ground game. I do not foresee many pass attempts in Herbert’s immediate future.
Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears
The road-tripping Bears are not expected to do much this week, according to sportsbooks. Their 19-point team total is lower than the Jets and Vikings. It’s a quarter-point higher than the Browns’ team total. A date with the Packers in Lambeau will do that. Per the spreadsheets, the Packers haven’t fielded an elite passing defense in 2025. Their games are just boring for everyone involved. Green Bay has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers, largely because quarterbacks don’t get to throw many passes against them. The Packers have faced the second-lowest pass rate over expected and they have limited their opponents to a below-average number of offensive plays per game. Ben Johnson and the Bears will be more than willing to lean into a low-scoring, run-first game after mauling the Eagles with 281 rushing yards last week.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 14’s top plays at quarterback.
▶ Running Back
Start: Chase Brown, Bengals
Sometimes, fantasy football is as simple as starting anyone who plays a certain team. This year, the Bills versus running backs has been one of those situations. Buffalo is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing backs. They rank 31st in explosive run rate allowed (17.1 percent) and 30th in EPA per rush allowed. No team has allowed running backs to find the end zone more often than the Bills. Even with Samaje Perine—who is a viable RB4 this week—stealing some work, Brown is pushing for an RB1 rank in Week 14.
Start: RJ Harvey, Broncos
Harvey’s role took a step back in Week 13. He went from running 48 percent of the routes on 61 percent of the snaps in Week 11 to a 29 percent route rate on just 46 percent of the snaps post-bye. Those fancy stats will not matter against the Raiders. We want carries and goal line work versus Vegas. Harvey saw plenty of those things last week. His carry share actually rose one point to 62 percent and he saw all three of the team’s goal line attempts. It’s frustrating for him only to earn a two-down role with J.K. Dobbins out, but that will be more than enough to get home this week.
Sit: Woody Marks, Texans
Marks, on the other hand, is a player with a great role who won’t cash in on it this week. The Chiefs aren’t an elite rush defense efficiency-wise, but they limit rushing volume like almost no other team. They have faced a +2% PROE this year. That has resulted in them seeing the second-fewest rush attempts per game. The receiving outlook isn’t much better. Kansas City has given up just 5.1 targets per game to opposing backfields, the eighth-lowest mark in the league. Marks ranks 27th in breakaway rate and 44th in yards after contact per carry. He doesn’t have the efficiency necessary to overcome a lack of volume this week.
Sit: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
The Broncos are giving up the seventh-fewest carries to opposing running backs every week. Unlike the Chiefs, they also excel in the spreadsheets. They rank 14th in EPA per rush allowed and have conceded the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt. Jeanty has scraped by on receiving volume in recent weeks, but Denver could even take that away. Only the Saints are facing fewer running back targets than the Broncos, who see 4.1 per week. With a 16.5-point team total showing no hope for the Raiders offense, Jeanty isn’t a must-start for the final week of the fantasy regular season.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 14’s top plays at running back.
▶ Wide Receiver
Start: Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled out this week. That’s all you need to know.
Wilson averaged 27.7 PPR points in two games without MHJ. He racked up a 32 percent target share and still holds the record for most receiving yards in a game this year at 185. When MHJ is out, we start Wilson. That’s the rule.
Start: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
The Bucs have redoubled their efforts to force-feed Egbuka the ball since their bye. Dating back to Week 10, Egbuka’s 30 percent target share ranks sixth among all wideouts and his 9.5 targets per game sit at fourth. He is the WR24 by points per game during that stretch.
Sit: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Coming off a two-catch, four-yard outing, this could just as easily have been a spot for Justin Jefferson. As a coward, I can’t tell you to sit the greatest receiver on the planet. I can tell you to sit Addison, who is averaging 6.2 fantasy points per game in J.J. McCarthy starts. PFF has McCarthy with the league’s lowest accurate throw rate at 51.1 percent. He is dead last in EPA per play as well.
Sit: DK Metcalf, Steelers
The Metcalf scam appears to have run its course. In the first half of the season to date, Metcalf was at least operating as a clear No. 1 receiver for the Steelers. The offense has declined in recent weeks and his volume metrics have all taken a hit at the same time.
Targets per RouteTarget ShareAir Yards SharePPR Points per GameWeeks 1-60.2225%45%15.7Weeks 7-130.1921%35%9.2
Metcalf is seeing middling volume on a team that is struggling to support fantasy production. He can be left on the bench.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 14’s top plays at receiver.
▶ Tight End
Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
Fannin truly completed the takeover last week, running 93 percent of the available routes for Cleveland. It was his first game over 90 percent and just his third over 80. He totaled a 22 percent target share. Dating back to Week 10, coming off Cleveland’s bye, Fannin has racked up a 24 percent target share. That would rank third among tight ends over the entire year.
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson has played three games without Rashid Shaheed in the lineup this year. His target volume hasn’t changed, but the way in which he is deployed and, in turn, his efficiency, are both evolving. Before the Shaheed trade, Johnson was running 50.3 percent of his routes from the slot. He was averaging 1.37 YPRR with 4.6 YAC per catch. Johnson is up to a 62.4 percent slot rate post-trade. That has boosted him to 1.88 YPRR and 5.1 YAC per catch. His weekly fantasy output is up to 12.9. It was at 9.9 with Shaheed in the mix.
Sit: Dallas Goedert, Eagles
A.J. Brown returned to the lineup in Week 10 after missing one game with a hamstring issue. He got the bye to rest up and has since put his best play on tape. As a result, Goedert has fallen by the wayside. He has a measly 14 percent target share with just 12 percent of the team’s air yards over his past four games.
His fantasy output has been almost non-existent. In a low-scoring game versus the Chargers, Jalen Hurts’ third-favorite target isn’t on the fantasy radar.
Sit: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Likely may have turned the corner in Week 13 with five catches for 95 yards, both of which were season-highs for him. His role, however, remained unviable for fantasy purposes. He ran a route on just 58 percent of the team’s dropbacks. His first-read target share of 17 percent ranked third on the team, still behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Most importantly, the Ravens just committed to Andrews as their top tight end with a three-year extension, dashing any hopes of a Likely takeover.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 14’s top plays at tight end, kicker, and defense.
