The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder open up their 2025-26 season at home against the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night.
OKC will be raising its championship banner, and oddsmakers are expecting the Thunder to win big on Tuesday, setting them as 6.5-point favorites.
Houston has a new look in the 2025-26 season, as Kevin Durant is now in the fold (and has a new contract extension), but it also has lost point guard Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) for the 2025-26 season.
That has left Houston with a little bit of a hole in the backcourt, especially since it barely played former No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard in the 2024-25 season.
Houston was the No. 2 seed in the West last season, but it may be facing an uphill battle to get there again – even with Durant in the fold.
As for the Thunder, they’re hoping for better health in the 2025-26 season, although star Jalen Williams is still recovering from the wrist injury that he played through in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
Can OKC get the season started with a commanding win after a dominant season at home in the 2024-25 campaign?
Let’s dive into the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for the first game of the 2025-26 NBA season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Rockets Injury Report
Thunder Injury Report
Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m betting on Durant in the prop market on Tuesday:
Kevin Durant averaged 4.2 assists per game for the Phoenix Suns last season and averages 4.4 per game for his career, making him an intriguing bet in this season opener against a tough OKC defense.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Thunder try to force Durant off the ball in this game, but without Fred VanVleet, someone has to create shots for the Thunder offense. There has been a ton of buzz around Amen Thompson, but Durant is the most-polished offensive player on this team by far.
He should initiate a ton of action on Tuesday, and I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him to be right around four to five assists per game again this season.
OKC only allowed 24.6 assists per game (fourth fewest in the NBA) last season, but this number is too low for Durant given the lack of playmaking options for Houston.
Last season, these teams ranked No. 1 (OKC) and No. 5 (Houston) in defensive rating, yet oddsmakers have set this total at 227.5.
I think we could be in line for a defensive slugfest on Tuesday, as the Thunder are operating without Jalen Williams and the Rockets lost Fred VanVleet for the 2025-26 season.
Houston’s offense suffered without FVV last season, as the team played .500 ball and averaged less points per game (113.7).
Even with Durant in the fold, Houston is going to have to answer some questions on offense, especially with the lack of shooting it has in some of its most-talented lineups.
OKC had an elite scoring defense last season, and it may want to play a slower, grind-it-out game with Williams dealing with a wrist injury.
I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams get out of the gate a little slower than oddsmakers expect on Tuesday night.
Pick: UNDER 227.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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