High voter turnout.
That’s the story today, so far, heading into the post-work evening final rush before 8 p.m.
Sources in both parties describe overperformance in key areas, including battleground counties like Somerset.
Very high turnout in Passaic County, another battleground.
Some are cautious based on 2024 surprises. They saw what Donald Trump did last year in terms of siphoning off key urban demographic areas.
Don’t assume, runs the argument, that high Democratic totals equal a Mikie Sherrill win.
Even those players who see the pendulum swinging against Trump after he ran on fixing the economy and didn’t, to name perhaps the least of his transgressions, don’t want to miss Jack Ciattarelli’s strong campaigning and voter-outreach to Democrats.
But most sources see high turnout everywhere – including (and especially) in Essex County, which has the largest Democratic Party plurality in the state – as a good sign for Mikie Sherrill, who hails from Essex.
Democrats, of course, have a more than an 800K voter registration advantage in New Jersey, and high turnout across the board would appear to inure to Sherrill’s advantage.
Don’t discount what Sherrill will pick up among suburban Democrats, especially women (her strongpoint), sources say, to offset some of those perceived advantages Ciattarelli’s retail politics gain among some urban voters.
Monmouth and Ocean:
Republican: 47,740
Democrat: 19,076
Open: 22,225
Essex:
DEM: 47,883
REP: 12,109
OPEN: 16,843
