No. 9 Oregon travels to No. 20 Iowa on Saturday (12:30 p.m., CBS) at Kinnick Stadium.
The Oregonian/OregonLive reached out to Iowa columnist Chad Leistikow (@ChadLeistikow on X) of the Des Moines Register to pose five questions about the Hawkeyes and get a prediction.
1) Why is this possibly Iowa’s best defense under Phil Parker?
Leistikow: “The 2022 and 2023 Iowa defenses that basically carried Iowa teams to 18 wins with absolutely zero offense will be hard to top. Parker was the 2023 Broyles Award winner for that reason, and I realize that’s the nature of this question – he gets the most of his players and finds ways to slow teams down. That will be the challenge against a speedy team like Oregon that can uncork the big plays that Parker’s defenses are designed to stop. Iowa did a good job limiting Indiana to 20 points in September. Its strength is in film study and extreme attention to detail that can force high-powered offenses to be methodical and patient. True, Iowa’s 234.9 yards-per-game allowed would be the lowest in the 27-year Kirk Ferentz era. But let’s see where this defense rates after facing Oregon and USC the next two weeks.”
2) What impact does Jaden Harrell being limited have on the defense?
Leistikow: “None. Jayden Montgomery stepped in at middle linebacker following Iowa’s 20-15 loss to Indiana (in which Harrell got hurt), and the undersized redshirt junior has given Iowa more speed at the second level which should match up better with Oregon. Iowa’s defense has allowed an average of 203 yards per game when Montgomery starts (3-0). Harrell is available on Saturday if Montgomery gets injured.”
3) Is Mark Gronowski limited as a passer or does Iowa lack the weapons to stretch the field?
Leistikow: “Both. The two positions that have really held Iowa back over the past four years especially are quarterback and wide receiver. The receivers group definitely has more speed than it’s had in a long time, but it’s still not producing much. That said, electric punt returner Kaden Wetjen has been implemented more in the offense since the start of October and can be dangerous in space. Gronowski’s left-knee injury suffered against Indiana really hampered his progress as a thrower, forcing offensive coordinator Tim Lester to rely more on a short-passing game and the run. It’ll be interesting to see if the latest bye week will help Gronowski generate more downfield accuracy as he regains confidence in that plant leg.”
4) What would a win against Oregon mean to Iowa as a program beyond the implications for this season?
Leistikow: “Iowa is 0-11 in its last 11 games against ranked opponents, with two narrow losses this year (Iowa State, Indiana) adding to the dubious tally. That’s unusual under Kirk Ferentz. There’s no doubt that Iowa enters this one playing its most complete football since at least the middle of 2021, when this 0-11 run began. Gronowski’s ability as a runner and incredible track record as a winner (55-6 in college when he starts/finishes games) and the NFL-inspired offense of second-year coordinator Tim Lester has giving Iowa more hope that it can hang with the top teams in college football. Winning this game would feel like the return to the days when Iowa would regularly knock off top-10 teams at home.”
5) How do you see it playing out and what’s your score prediction?
Leistikow: “Oregon is scary at every angle, and the way the Ducks run the football is most concerning as Iowa will try to stop the run with just seven players as it uses its back four (all future NFL players) to limit big plays. But the Hawkeyes’ best unit is their offensive line, which has gotten much healthier and has been rolling since the start of October. Ferentz is 5-1 all-time in November in home games against top-10 opponents. That’s because he’ll force a low-possession, ball-control game won in the margins. Placekicker Drew Stevens (70 career field goals, a program record) could be a key difference for the Hawkeyes, who I’ve got winning this one, 20-17.”
No. 9 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) vs No. 20 Iowa (6-2, 4-1)
- When: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Time: 12:30 p.m. PT
- Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City
- TV: CBS
- Stream: DirecTV (free trial) or Fubo (promotional offers) or Sling (college football season pass is just $199). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.
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