After a bye week, the Hawkeyes are back in action in Kinnick for a top-20 showdown against he #9 Oregon Ducks. Like Iowa, Oregon also comes in off a bye and ready for a top-25 win to add to the resume.
Oregon opened as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under at 43.5 total points according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That line has moved around a bit during the week and the potential for cold and rain drove the over/under all the way down to 40.5 at one point. As of Friday morning, things have settled right back at Oregon -6.5 and the over/under is set at 42.5 total points, giving us an implied final score of Oregon 24.5, Iowa 18.
Here at The Pants, we’re shockingly close to that implied final. Our consensus score is Oregon 24.4, Iowa 18.4. That does have us on Iowa taking the points and the over – both just barely.
The Pants went 2-0 two weeks ago as the Hawkeyes did covered the spread and hit the over over. We’re now 7-9 on the year.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday.
I have no idea how this one is going to go. Genuinely, I can see two scenarios playing out and really don’t know which way to lean. The first is that we get our top-10 matchup in Kinnick and the Hawkeye faithful do their part being loud and proud and Iowa drags the Ducks into the mud. The Hawkeyes ground and pound and grind this thing into a rock fight. They get late into the fourth quarter and it all comes down to a FG to win it. We’ve seen that movie before, it’s just been a while.
The other movie we’ve seen is more of a horror flick. Oregon comes in feeling disrespected with the #9 ranking. They know how critical this game is for the rest of their season and they start fast. They get an early stop followed by a score. Then Iowa turns the ball over and before you know it we’re staring down the barrel of a two-score comeback. Iowa keeps trying to grind but the Ducks are relentless and just gradually pull away as the faithful sit cold, wet and evermore quiet as the game goes on.
I really hope I’m wrong, but I think that’s the movie we get on Saturday.
My heart wants to predict that Iowa does to Oregon what they did to Indiana, except this time Gronowski finishes the game and the Hawks come out on top. My head tells me that this is probably the most complete team we’ve seen walk into Kinnick this season (I don’t think Indiana had fully hit their stride until after nearly losing to Iowa, I think they’d boat race us if they’d come to Kinnick in week 10 instead of week 4).
Iowa’s defense may be able to make Dante Moore and the rest of Oregon’s offense look as pedestrian as they made the Hoosiers look, but I’m not sure that this offense (even with all the growth they’ve shown over the last 3 games) can put up the kind of numbers that they’ll need to to put the Ducks away, especially against this Oregon defense. They’re going to need to play another complete game in all three phases, and may even need a touchdown on S/T or Defense to keep them close enough to have a shot in the 4th quarter.
I know that Kirk is great at home in November, I know that this is the kind of game that Iowa manages to pull off more than not, but the bye week (and watching some Oregon tape) has rekindled my cynical fire and I have a hard time imagining that Lanning’s boys are going to bring the kind of attitude they brought to Autzen against Wisconsin a couple weeks ago. Both teams have something to prove, to themselves, their fans, and the Playoff Committee, and I’d like our chances a lot more if Oregon was ranked a little higher, and Iowa a little lower. I just don’t think they’re looking past us the way they may have with the Badgers.
Like JP, I really, really, want to be wrong here, but I just don’t think we have the horses.
I’m a bit more optimistic about Iowa’s chances in this one than some of my colleagues. Kinnick Stadium in November is where teams’ national championship hopes go to die, and Oregon has very little experience playing cold weather games against physical teams in the type of environment. Iowa has one of the best offensive lines in the country and a running game that will be extremely difficult to stop without putting extra defenders in the box. Iowa’s defense has proven that it can slow down elite offenses, having held the nation’s highest scoring team to less than half their weekly average. If Iowa can force a few turnovers, minimize mistakes on offense, and maybe make a little magic on special teams, this game is extremely winnable.
On the other hand, Oregon is a Top-1o team for a reason. The Ducks’ passing defense is elite, allowing opponents to complete only 49% of their attempts, intercepting nine passes while allowing only four touchdowns, and holding teams to only 124 passing yards per game—the fewest in the nation. Dan Lanning is a brilliant defensive mind, and not just because he graduated from one of the best liberal arts schools in the Midwest (go Cardinals!). Oregon will be dialed in on stopping the Iowa rushing attack and will dare Iowa to throw into the teeth of their dangerous secondary. Whether quarterback Mark Gronowski and Iowa’s receivers can make enough plays to punish Oregon for that decision could very well decide the game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tim Lester get creative in how he tries to run the ball (Slow Mesh, maybe?), but unfortunately Oregon had the same extra week off to prepare for this game that Iowa had and should be ready for what the Hawkeyes can throw at them. Expect a valiant effort from Iowa that falls just short of pulling the upset.
I want so much for this Saturday to be the day the Hawks finally break their losing streak to ranked teams and this year is probably the best chance an Iowa team has had in some time. The defense is rounding into the form we expect from Phil Parker’s defenses and we finally have that serviceable offense we’ve been craving. This feels different than recent games against ranked opponents, where despite all our hope those teams’ superior talent simply overwhelmed a hapless Iowa squad. When this team is really clicking they can have a shot against almost anybody.
It’s November football in Kinnick Stadium, so it’s going to be miserable. Iowa was likely not going to have great success in the passing game anyway with Oregon’s ferocious pass defense being what it is, but Iowa’s greatest offensive strength is the run game. With some extra time to plan I’m hoping Tim Lester has come up with some creative looks and surprises to throw the Ducks off balance early on. If Mark Gronowski can make the makeables in the passing game when they present themselves and the offensive line can punch Oregon in the mouth early and often I think Iowa can turn this into the rock fight they want it to be.
Before the season I said this would be where Iowa finally breaks their ranked game curse. The doubts are pulling me in the other direction, but what the hell, I’ll be the voice of hope and stick with that preseason prediction.
My heart wants to pick the Hawks here, but my gut tells me to prepare for heartbreak, especially since this will be my only game in Kinnick this season. The fixings for an upset are certainly there, but when has Iowa football come through in the moments that could elevate the program in the last 10-15 years?
Consensus: Oregon 24, Iowa 18
So there you have it – Hawkeye fans are cold, wet and knocked out of the CFP hunt. Here’s hoping we’re wrong, like usual!
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
