- Starts of the Week, not sit-your-studs: This is a list of players poised to beat expectations, accompanied by my confidence rating at the end of each outlook. Use them to win close decisions, not to bench superstars.
- Jaxson Dart is a strong Week 10 start: He’s been the QB3 over the past three weeks (24.9 fantasy points per game) and now faces a Bears defense allowing 25.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the 12th-most rushing yards to the position. With one of the easiest quarterback matchups, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule tool, Dart is set up for another QB1 performance in a potential shootout.
Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Over the past three weeks, Jaxon Dart has been the fantasy QB3, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game.
This week, he draws a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and is giving up 25.4 fantasy points per game to the position. Dart also faces the third-easiest quarterback matchup of the week, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule tool.
This game has fireworks written all over it, and both quarterbacks should benefit in Week 10.
Confidence level: Mid/high-tier QB1
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
We backed Caleb last week, and it paid off with a 35-plus-point, QB1 finish in Week 9. And we’re going right back.
Over the past three weeks, the Giants have allowed the 11th-most passing yards, ninth-most receptions and fourth-most passing touchdowns. Caleb has been on fire lately, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game since Week 6. Expect that trend to continue against an exploitable Giants defense.
Confidence level: High-tier QB1
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
It has been an up-and-down season for Jared Goff, who currently ranks as the QB14 and is averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. However, this sets up as a boom week for Goff and the Lions’ offense coming off a Week 9 loss to the Vikings.
Goff draws the easiest quarterback matchup of the week, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule tool, and the Lions’ wide receivers have the third-easiest matchup. The Commanders have allowed 2,417 passing yards this season (second most) and a 110.7 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (third).
Goff is set up for a boom week in Week 10.
Confidence level: High-end QB1
Running Back
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
Over the past two weeks, Judkins has totaled nine rushing attempts for 19 yards and just 4.7 PPR points while battling injury and facing tough defenses during that stretch.
However, Week 10 sets up as a bounce-back spot for Judkins and the Browns’ offense. Cleveland faces a 1–7 Jets team that will be without Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. With Williams no longer clogging the middle, Judkins should have room to run against a weakened New York front.
The game script also projects to favor Cleveland. The Browns’ defense should be able to limit the Jets’ offense, and with New York trading away two of its best defenders, the Browns’ offense should find early success, allowing the game to flow toward Judkins and the rushing attack.
Confidence level: High-end RB2
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving is likely out again in Week 10 after missing practice the past two days, and the Buccaneers face a Patriots defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, along with the fifth-most yards after the catch to the position.
Tampa Bay will likely need to throw to keep pace with New England’s high-powered offense, and Rachaad White should benefit, especially with the Patriots struggling to defend running backs in the passing game.
Confidence level: Mid-tier RB2
Kyle Monangai/D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
The Kyle Monangai breakout came last week, as he finished as the PPR RB3 with D’Andre Swift sidelined.
Swift is expected to return this week after telling reporters on Wednesday that he “vows to be back vs. the Giants.” This sets up as a spot where both running backs could be startable. The Bears should be able to build an early lead and utilize both Swift and Monangai in different situations, allowing each to produce solid fantasy numbers.
The Giants profile as the fifth-easiest matchup for opposing running backs this week, and if Chicago’s offense clicks early, it could be a productive day for both backs.
Confidence level: Both RB2s
Wide receiver
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Even with Caleb Williams finishing as the QB1, Rome Odunze ended Week 9 without a single reception, finishing with zero PPR points.
However, this sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for Odunze. The Giants have allowed top-10 marks in yards, receptions and touchdowns to wide receivers this season. It’s also highly unlikely we’ll see another week with Odunze posting just a 6.3% adjusted target rate. From Weeks 1–8, he averaged a 28.6% adjusted target rate, and that usage should rebound in a soft matchup against New York.
Confidence level: High-end WR2
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are riding high after taking down the Packers in Week 9 and now face the one-win Saints in Week 10.
Carolina and Tetairoa McMillan have the sixth-easiest matchup for wide receivers this week, and McMillan specifically draws favorable coverage alignments across the field.
There’s a slight risk that the Panthers offense gets off to a fast start and shifts to a run-heavy game script, but if Bryce Young continues to throw throughout, this could be one of McMillan’s best matchups of the season.
Confidence level: High-end WR2
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Over the past three weeks, Wan’Dale Robinson has seen eight more targets, nine more receptions and 76 more yards than the next-closest Giants pass catcher.
This week, he draws a favorable matchup against a banged-up Bears secondary. As a result, the Giants have the easiest strength of schedule among wide receivers, and Robinson is projected for 14 PPR points, according to PFF’s fantasy projections. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him exceed that mark and push into the 18–20 PPR-point range in Week 10. With the Bears’ offense firing on all cylinders, Jaxon Dart will need to keep Robinson heavily involved to keep pace.
Confidence level: High-end WR2
