White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the October jobs report and inflation data will likely not be released even after the government reopens.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was largely idle for the duration of the 40-plus day shutdown, save for temporarily recalling some staff to ensure that the September consumer price index was released in time to set the Social Security cost-of-living-adjustment for next year.
As such, the agency was not able to collect price data and employment information that go into its most closely watched releases. Economic experts are wary of attempting to do so retroactively for fear of getting flawed data due to so-called recall bias, or the known difficulty in getting people to accurately remember past events.
“Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters. “All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policy makers at the [Federal Reserve] flying blind at a critical period.”
The jobs numbers for September have also not been released, though they were largely collected and compiled prior to the shutdown. That data is expected to come out within days of the government reopening.
BLS observers for weeks have been expressing alarm at the possibility that a protracted shutdown could impair the government statistical apparatus at a time when Wall Street and policymakers are desperate for an up-to-date picture on the job market and the economy. Leaders of the Federal Reserve are scheduled to meet the second week of December and could be forced to work with an incomplete economic picture if the White House’s prognostication comes to pass.
Payroll processor ADP has recently begun releasing weekly job estimates, in addition to its own monthly jobs report, but many experts say that such private-sector alternatives are not a proper substitute for the comprehensive data collected by the government.
A spokesperson for the Labor Department, which houses BLS, did not immediately respond to a request for more information on the possibility of an October data blackout. The acting BLS commissioner, William Wiatrowski, also did not respond to a request for comment.
Earlier this month, when asked about the prospect of missing a jobs report, Wiatrowski told POLITICO that the agency will “notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar.”
Erica Groshen, who led BLS during the Obama administration, said that canceling the monthly jobs report or CPI would be less of an issue if that data were to be included in future releases rather than left out entirely.
“I don’t know what BLS will do, and I think they will have to assess,” once the agency resumes operations, she said. “They would very much not want to have missing data forever.”
In addition to BLS, the government also collects economic data through the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, both of which are arms of the Commerce Department.
