A sobering reality is taking shape with the 2026 NFL Draft class.
As recently as a couple of months ago, teams anticipated a stacked crop of quarterbacks — not necessarily rivaling the 2024 draft class but surely better than the 2025 group. But with college quarterbacks underperforming across the board, there are serious concerns about the position, and that is going to reshape teams’ plans for the opening round.
“Nobody is playing the position well enough to be like, ‘That dude can take over my franchise,’” said an NFL team executive who was granted anonymity so he could speak openly.
This could be a massive blow to teams like the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns, which have glaring holes at QB and a pair of first-round selections at their disposal. It also hurts the Tennessee Titans, who have the inside track on the top pick, and their ability to auction off the selection to the highest bidder.
Of course, there’s plenty of time for evaluations to evolve between now and April, but the early analysis hasn’t been encouraging. There’s no clear-cut top prospect to truly set the pace for the rest of the class.
“I don’t love any of (the quarterbacks) right now,” a second executive said. “We’re trying to grasp onto somebody because there isn’t anybody, and it’s such a flavor of the week. Good luck right now.”
For context, those two executives don’t work for teams that need a franchise quarterback, so they’re not being disingenuous in an attempt to earn a competitive advantage. They’d actually prefer these QBs to climb up the ranks because it’d help their teams’ chances of drafting a better player at another position.
No one ever believed this group had a chance to compare to the historic 2024 class that featured six quarterbacks among the top 12 picks, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye right out of the chute. But after Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart were the only first-rounders in 2025, the common refrain was simple: Wait till next year.
Well, it might already be time to kick that can down the road to 2027.
“Overall, we were hoping it was going to be better than last year,” a third executive said. “There was a hangover from such a good class two years ago. There were more projected (quarterbacks) coming into this year, but the expectations of the higher-end players never really materialized. Some of the younger guys are leaning toward going back because they haven’t played well and are making the NIL money.”
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
If the draft were today, the 6-foot-5, 225-pounder might have the edge as the top QB. But even the staunchest Mendoza supporters don’t believe it’s by a wide margin.
The redshirt junior has the prototypical size at the position and is built similarly to Maye, though Mendoza isn’t as athletic. One executive said Mendoza processes his reads at a higher rate now than Maye did at this time in his final season at North Carolina.
Mendoza is a pocket passer who will run if necessary, and he’s tough. He scrambled more during his time at Cal because he was forced to really drive the offense. Still, Mendoza has been more comfortable controlling the game from the pocket with a better supporting cast and system at Indiana.
He has good accuracy, delivers a clean, catchable ball and has above-average arm strength. Executives like his decision-making and ball security — both traits have drastically improved this season. Mendoza also led a game-winning drive last week against Penn State that will help his cause.
THROW OF THE YEAR!
CATCH OF THE YEAR!
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. make an unreal play for a go-ahead TD vs. Penn State with 36 seconds left.
🎥 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/mX4qr3AOe1
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 8, 2025
Mendoza has high character, and a couple of executives gushed over his passion for the game and drive to get better. He doesn’t strike evaluators as a QB who can take over a game, but that tier of prospect doesn’t currently exist in this class.
His pre-draft interviews will be important because of his rigid, almost robotic personality and quiet leadership style. That might get picked apart during draft season, but no one called it a red flag.
“If people are caught up on that,” an executive said, “they’re getting caught up on the wrong things.”
Another exec added, “If you make plays in the clutch, and you’re tough as s—, guys start believing in you.”
Ty Simpson, Alabama
The 6-foot-2, 210-pounder has had an eye-opening ascension in his first season as the starter.
“He’s had the best year out of all of (the QB prospects), but he’s not as high up as some of these other guys in terms of physical tools,” an executive said. “More power to him. The kid has played his tail off, and he’s throwing the s— out of the ball.”
Simpson throws a great ball, the evaluators agreed, and he has advanced poise and polish for a first-time starter. The redshirt junior processes quickly and gets the ball out on time with accuracy. One evaluator said Simpson simply plays under control and has good command on the field.
Simpson’s lack of starts is a concern, and there’s no question he’d benefit from returning to school to gain more experience. He doesn’t wow teams with his traits, but the film has been the strength of his resume. One evaluator compared Simpson to Brock Purdy or Mac Jones — good players who get the ball where it needs to go.
Dante Moore, Oregon
NFL teams think the 20-year-old redshirt sophomore will return to school, and that’d be useful to clean up his issues with inconsistency.
The 6-foot-3, 206-pounder has certainly improved, but one executive said a return to school could put him on a Jayden Daniels-style trajectory as someone whose stock could skyrocket if he starts to play a cleaner game.
There’s a lot of optimism that Moore will reach his potential, but the consensus is that another season in college would be better for his development than trying to refine some fundamental struggles in the NFL.
If he did declare, though?
“I just think there’s a lot to work with as a player and a person,” an executive said. “I’d take him (as the top QB) at the end of the day.”
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
The 6-foot-3, 240-pounder has traits on top of traits on top of traits. He’s big and explosive, boasts a powerful arm, can win with his legs on third down and is tough to tackle. Coming out of the summer, it was fair to believe a solid season would solidify Sellers as the top QB because of his overall athletic ability.
However, Sellers just hasn’t played well enough, and teams are hoping the 20-year-old will return to school. He played well in the second half of the 2024 season, but South Carolina doesn’t have enough help around him, particularly on the offensive line. Taking on too much of the burden, Sellers hasn’t had the chance to make the jump that many hoped to see.
Whether it’s the offensive philosophy or they do it out of necessity because of the lack of help around him, Sellers has a lot of one-read-and-go plays. That’s going to make his transition to the NFL more difficult with calls, checks, reads and progressions. He also needs to tighten up his footwork and mechanics, according to evaluators.
If Sellers gets there, watch out.
“He’s got franchise quarterback physical ability,” an executive said. “But can he get there with the other stuff?”
Arch Manning, Texas
Manning almost certainly won’t enter the 2026 draft, but he’s worth mentioning for two reasons: He’d at least be in the QB1 conversation if he declared, and it doesn’t sound like anyone from the next tier has enough time to make that type of jump.
The 21-year-old redshirt sophomore has an above-average arm and good athleticism, and he has a prototypical frame at 6-foot-4, 219 pounds. Manning also has high-quality intangibles. He simply needs a lot more reps at Texas.
Manning has improved throughout the season, three executives agreed.
“Guys are allowed to get better as players,” an executive said, mocking the criticism of Manning’s season opener against Ohio State. “We judged him off his, what, first three games in college football and said he’s a bust? He’s been getting better.”
Added another executive: “Shocker, a guy who had never started in major college football didn’t get off to a race-car start. It’s all still in front of him.”
