The stakes are high for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings this weekend against the Bears. Sunday’s rematch against Chicago will be just the fifth start of McCarthy’s career, but it’s essentially a must-win game for the 2025 Vikings and their postseason hopes. They can’t afford to lose another home game and fall to 4-6 on the season.
With a win, Minnesota would have life ahead of a trip to Green Bay in Week 12. A victory would get the Vikings back to 5-5, move them to 3-0 in the NFC North, and secure a tiebreaker over the Bears, who would drop to 6-4.
This should be a fascinating one. The Vikings need to make life easier on their young quarterback by leaning into the running game, avoiding self-inflicted wounds, and making some splash plays on the defensive side of the ball. But above all else, they need McCarthy’s development to show up in real time in the form of improved accuracy, pocket command, and consistency.
Will the Vikings get the job done against a Bears team whose 6-3 record looks a bit inflated by a weak schedule? We’ve made our score predictions.
J.J. McCarthy has never lost a game against a divisional opponent. He’s also never won a game at U.S. Bank Stadium. One of those (tiny sample-size) trends is going to end on Sunday, and I think it’ll be the latter. The Bears’ 6-3 record, -8 point differential, and +14 turnover margin all scream regression to the mean. Back in his NFL debut, McCarthy threw a pick-six while in field goal range and still managed to lead a comeback win over Chicago at Soldier Field. He’s now slightly more experienced, playing at home, and gets to throw to Jordan Addison, who was suspended for the first meeting between these teams.
McCarthy’s early struggles with basic footwork and accuracy worry me, as does the absence of Jonathan Greenard, the Vikings’ top pass rusher. That’s why I think this will be close. But I also think the Vikings have slight advantages over the Bears in terms of overall roster talent and coaching. They’re due for a home win, and at least so far, McCarthy has stepped up and delivered when his team has needed it most against division rivals. Will Reichard’s fourth field goal will be the game-winner on Sunday.
The Bears aren’t good. Honestly, they’re probably the worst six-win team through 10 weeks in modern NFL history. I say that while acknowledging that Caleb Williams is a force to be reckoned with.
The Lions beat these Bears by 31 points. Chicago had a solid win over Dallas in Week 3, but their five victories since then are against horrible Vegas, extremely injured Washington, the No. 1 pick-seeking Saints, the rotten Bengals, and a bad Giants team that didn’t have Jaxson Dart in the fourth quarter. And they BARELY beat the Raiders, Commanders, and Giants, while needing a miracle to come away with a win over the Bengals. They stink. Vikings by 30.
The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with six wins in their last seven games. Sunday’s game will be a rematch of Minnesota’s thrilling Week 1 comeback win in Chicago, and oddsmakers think they could make it a season sweep. J.J. McCarthy has seemingly performed at his best this season when he’s doubted the most, and I think we could see a serious bounce back performance this week at home. I expect Justin Jefferson to have his biggest game of the season and the Vikings to keep their playoff hopes realistically alive with a much-needed win at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Bears have beaten the teams they should beat, although a number of those games have been far too close for a team that wants to be competitive heading into the back stretch of the season. Meanwhile, the Vikings need a good response after getting smacked around at their own place last Sunday. Is this the week that J.J. McCarthy finally gets his first home win? I think it is, but it’ll be interesting to see how an opposing defense responds to him after seeing him already once this season. McCarthy can’t possibly get away with another poor three quarters of play against Chicago — and he won’t need to. Vikings by two touchdowns to get back to .500 in this rollercoaster season.
Here are last week’s predictions, which saw Will come one point away from a perfect call. Season records for our pickers:
