We’ve had a rough few weeks here at Betting the Big Ten. In Week 11, we nailed the Wisconsin pick against Washington, but unfortunately missed on most others. The weather wreaked havoc on Oregon’s chances of covering at Kinnick while Ohio State looked uninspired and failed to cover as well. We went a regrettable 2-5 on the week and now sit at 44-50-2 on the season. Things will turn around.
Week 12 only has two Big Ten games with single-digit spreads, but there are some intriguing matchups. Iowa will look to bounce back and ruin USC’s season in Los Angeles, while Michigan and Northwestern meet up at Wrigley Field.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Minnesota at Oregon (-25.5), O/U 43.5, 9 p.m. Friday
Over the course of the week, this line has slid slowly from 21.5 to 25.5 in favor of the Ducks despite 63 percent of all bets being on Minnesota, per The Action Network. Season-long trends back up this shift towards Oregon, as the Ducks are 5-4 ATS while the Gophers are a putrid 2-6-1 ATS and 0-3 on the road. Without much to go off with regards to the total, I’ll ride with Oregon here.
Wisconsin at Indiana (-29.5), O/U 44.5, Noon Saturday
This is the toughest game of the week. Wisconsin is 2-7 against the total and almost always go under, including in its last five games. Indiana, on the other hand, is 7-3 against the total and has gone over in four straight. The total isn’t an option. Against the spread, Wisconsin is below .500 at 4-5, while the Hoosiers are 6-4, but that isn’t a huge margin and both have covered in two of their past three games. Based solely on my gut, I’ll go with Wisconsin here, as Indiana could be due for a let-down spot following an emotional win in Happy Valley.
The pick: Wisconsin +29.5
Michigan (-12.5) at Northwestern, O/U 41.5, Noon at Wrigley Field, Chicago
The amount of bets and money on this one is relatively even despite the spread shifting from 10.5 to 12.5 in Michigan’s favor. Northwestern is better ATS than Michigan (5-3-1 vs. 3-6) but has failed to cover in its past two games and is trending in the wrong direction. Let’s focus on the total — both teams go under more often than not (4-5 for Michigan, 3-5-1 for Northwestern). Additionally, Michigan has gone under in four of its last five. In an unusual environment, I like Michigan’s defense to shut down the Wildcats while the offense slogs through another uninspiring performance.
Iowa at USC (-7), O/U 49.5, 3:30 p.m.
The Hawkeyes had a chance to play spoiler last week against Oregon and failed to do so — I don’t think they let that opportunity fall through their hands twice. Despite 68 percent of all bets being on USC, the spread has remained unmoved. Additionally, Iowa is an astounding 7-2 ATS on the year and 3-0 on the road. This game feels like peak Iowa.
Penn State (-7.5) at Michigan State, O/U 49.5, 3:30 p.m.
This may surprise you, but Michigan State has covered in four of its last five games. Despite losing them all outright, the Spartans covered against Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota. “Defeat with Dignity” some might say. Not so surprisingly, Penn State is just 2-7 ATS despite the heroic effort against Indiana last week. It felt like Penn State used up all its magic last week and will come crashing back to reality this week.
The pick: Michigan State +7.5
Maryland at Illinois (-15.5), O/U 52.5, 3:30 p.m.
In yet another game in which the betting public is very split ATS, we’re focusing on the total. Illinois is 5-4 against the total, but is just 1-4 at home. Maryland goes under a majority of the time, sitting at 3-6 against the total on the year and 0-3 on the road. Both teams have gone under in two of their last three as well. I just don’t see this game exceeding 52.5 points.
Purdue at Washington (-16.5), O/U 53.5, 7 p.m.
Despite Washington’s embarrassing loss to Wisconsin last week, the betting public likes the Huskies to bounce back. A whopping 86 percent of all bets are on Washington to cover, and the spread has shifted to reflect that. Both teams have hovered around .500 all year ATS, but I like the bounce-back opportunity for the Huskies. I would have preferred to get this under two touchdowns, but I’ll still ride with the general public.
The pick: Washington -16.5
UCLA at Ohio State (-32.5), O/U 48.5, 7:30 p.m.
Night games in the Horseshoe are notoriously tough, and this does not seem like a UCLA team capable of bucking the trend. Ohio State is 7-2 ATS, 6-2 as a favorite and 4-1 at home, while UCLA is just 3-6 ATS. We picked Ohio State to cover a large spread last week at Purdue and missed, but we’re banking that being an aberration.
The pick: Ohio State -32.5
