Bo Nix is currently in the second year of his draft pick contract, which allows the Denver Broncos to maintain cost control for the first three years before he becomes eligible for an extension in the fourth year. As fans should know, this gives a team a chance to get good value out of the contract for a recently drafted quarterback.
What I wanted to look at, though, is the value Nix is delivering relative to the value of other quarterbacks around the league. I included both veterans and other recently drafted quarterbacks to gauge how he compares.
The exercise here is to get an idea of what Nix’s valuation says about his level of play and how that will factor into an extension, particularly with the contracts that other quarterbacks have signed in recent seasons.
The Broncos won’t have to think about an extension until the 2027 season but it will be a way to gauge what type of deal he might get down the road.
I’m using Over The Cap‘s valuation metric, which gives you a rough idea of a player’s value to a team. That metric can then be compared to the contract to determine whether a team is getting its money’s worth.
Before I get into this, I should note that, as of this writing, OTC’s valuation has only been updated for the first nine games of the season. Furthermore, I’m only examining quarterbacks who have started the first nine games, because when a player misses time due to injury, his valuation drops. The best way to compare quarterbacks is to look at those who have the same sample size.
As you would imagine, Nix’s valuation is strong compared to his contract. His OTC valuation through nine games is $35.125 million, and his contract pays him about $4.7 million per year.
However, what does that valuation say about what Nix is delivering in terms of his play? Let’s look at some veterans who have played in the first nine games of the season and their respective OTC valuations:
These are the veterans delivering at least $40M in OTC valuation. One could say these quarterbacks are playing at an elite level this season.
Now let’s look at a few more veterans:
These quarterbacks are not quite delivering an elite season, though for some, you could say their play is approaching that level, or at the very least, they’re having a good season.
What about recently drafted quarterbacks? Let’s look at five players who have been drafted since 2023 and who have started the first nine games of this season.
Maye is arguably playing at an elite level this season, while Williams and Stroud have been good but not elite. Penix and Young have not been good overall this season, based on OTC valuation.
What happens next for the Broncos? Don’t miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!
Nov 17, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) looks to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
What does it all mean? Let’s consider what veteran quarterbacks are getting in terms of APY salary.
Prescott has the highest APY salary at $60M, while Allen, Love, Lawrence, and Joe Burrow (who has missed the bulk of the season because of injury) all have an APY salary of $55M. Prescott might be considered an anomaly here, so $55M APY might be the bar for elite quarterback play, particularly when you are a former first-round pick, as the other four players are.
Then consider the likes of Goff, Brock Purdy, and Tua Tagovailoa, who are all getting $53M APY. Each player signed his current deal at a different time, but one might consider $53M APY to be what you would expect to pay for a quarterback who isn’t elite, but has shown he’s a player who will get the job done.
If we assume Nix continues to play at a valuation that suggests he is good but not yet elite, he will likely fall a bit below $55M APY. A $54M APY salary wouldn’t be far from that mark — it just wouldn’t surpass it.
But if Nix’s play ascends to the point that he delivers elite valuation, he might be in position to jump ahead of the $55M APY mark. He will need to show consistently strong play to reach that valuation, though.
Who are some quarterbacks to watch when it comes to new extensions? Unless any quarterbacks currently under contract get a new deal (as happened with Allen), the only ones who will enter the conversation are Stroud, Maye, and Williams — the three recently drafted players who have shown they can deliver quality play.
The one to watch in 2026 will be Stroud, as the money he gets will impact what the Broncos can be expected to pay. There’s nothing the Broncos can do about a new Stroud deal because Nix won’t be eligible for one. Thus, any extension for Stroud next year will tell the tale about the future quarterback market.
However, another thing to consider is that the Broncos have shown they will pay players well, but won’t reset the market in every instance. The only extension the Broncos gave that truly reset the market was for cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who is arguably the best player at his position in the NFL. For others, a couple have come near the top of the market, but they haven’t reset it.
Therefore, if Nix plays at a level that justifies an extension when he’s eligible, it’s not a given that the Broncos will have to reset the market with him. Denver will have to pay him well, but unless he delivers an MVP-level season by 2026, his deal may put him near the top of the market but not above it.
The jury is still out on whether Nix is truly the long-term guy, and the Broncos won’t have to make a decision until 2027 at the earliest. But the Broncos are at least getting an idea about what an extension might look like.
What ultimately determines that, though, will be what Nix delivers on the field.
More Must-Read Denver Broncos Coverage
