COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State picked up another ranked win on Saturday, this time on the road against then-No. 17 Illinois. The Illini have since fallen out of the AP poll, but the win was still a good one for a team that has won six straight games and continues to do so with ease.
The Buckeyes won 34-16 despite not playing their sharpest game on offense and giving up their first red zone touchdowns of the season.
To some extent, the fact Ohio State can win by multiple possessions despite being off its game shows just how good it can be, but the expectation Ryan Day has set is perfection. So there are some things to talk about following that game ahead of Saturday’s trip to Wisconsin. Let’s get into them.
Can Ohio State’s run game be fixed?
Ohio State’s run game has been average this season. The Buckeyes are averaging 160 yards per game and 4.73 yards per carry, both around the middle of the pack in the Big Ten statistically. That would be the second-lowest average per carry of the Day era. According to TruMedia, Ohio State averages 1.75 yards before contact per rush, which ranks 77th in the FBS, and 3.13 yards after contact, which ranks 73rd.
The Buckeyes rushed for 4.43 yards per attempt against Minnesota and 4.38 against Washington, but on Saturday against an Illinois run defense that gave up six yards per carry against Purdue, Ohio State ran for just 2.86, the second-lowest of the season.
Is Ohio State doomed to have a bad run game this year? I don’t think so.
Looking back over every carry in that game, there are some common themes that lead me to be a tad more optimistic.
First, the offensive line is really good.
Day made a comment after the game that he thought the offensive line played well and moved the Illinois defense when they wanted to run. On the second rewatch, I agree, especially the left side of the line.
Left guard Luke Montgomery has been the most consistent lineman on the roster this season. Mix him with Austin Siereveld, with the exception of his missed block on the Jeremiah Smith reverse, and you have a consistent duo holding things down on the left.
As for the right side, I think Ohio State is still experimenting with things. Tegra Tshabola is the starting right guard, but I don’t think he’s improved enough from his inconsistency last season to hold that spot regardless of performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if Josh Padilla continues to take snaps from him. He played 13 snaps on Saturday, according to Pro Football Focus.
Still, I don’t think the offensive line is the problem and I don’t think it’s completely on the running backs, either. Bo Jackson going out with an ankle injury hurt things, because he’s the most explosive of the trio with CJ Donaldson and James Peoples, though I think they are fine. Would you like to see them breaking more tackles and making people miss? Yes, but I thought they hit the correct holes, for the most part, on Saturday.
To me, the mistakes were a mix of poor play calling and poor targeting by some of the tight ends and the pulling offensive linemen.
We could use the miss by Siereveld and tight end Max Klare as the obvious example, but it was more than just one play.
This was a creative play to get the ball in Jackson’s hands and the Buckeyes had the Illinois defensive line fooled with this. You can see the entire line following the reverse, but the second-level players read it well. That’s where you want your linemen to climb to the second level and block, and Ohio State had the numbers to do so.
Tight end Will Kacmarek misses his block and the two pulling linemen take the same player, while the next two defenders get a free shot at Jackson. This could’ve been an explosive play if the blocks lined up.
It’s important to note that sometimes the opponent is going to make a play, so it’s never going to be perfect for the Buckeyes, but it just looked like they were a step off throughout the day.
I also wasn’t a big fan of the play calling.
Ohio State ran the ball well in the first quarter, tallying 59 yards on 12 carries. It had Illinois off balance, because the linebackers were so worried about getting into coverage that they’d bail on the run early. Ohio State was running well, even against heavy box fronts.
As the game went on, though, Ohio State became a bit more predictable and the Illini started just shooting the run.
This is a good example.
Ohio State loves to run out of the pistol formation when the running back is lined up right behind the quarterback. It will sprinkle in some play-action, but on this, linebacker Miles Scott read the run the entire way. He timed the snap count well and immediately ran right tackle Phillip Daniels off the ball.
Illinois also got some nice sheds from its defensive line, but they were reading the run game well, especially in the third quarter when Ohio State had just 2.6 yards per carry on 12 carries.
In the first quarter, 33 percent of Ohio State’s runs were against eight-man boxes, per TruMedia. The rest of the game: 64 percent. For the season, 44.1 percent of Ohio State’s rushes have been against eight-plus in the box, the eighth-highest rate in the FBS.
This weekend will be an important one for the Buckeyes as they face what’s capable of being a formidable Wisconsin rushing defense. The Badgers are allowing just 97 yards per game, though they have weakened the past couple of games against Michigan and Iowa. The play-action game should be there if Ohio State wants it.
This year’s Ohio State team needs to establish the pass game to set up the run game because of how dangerous they are on the outside. That doesn’t mean the run game can’t be good. The offensive line is good enough to create holes, but can it target players better than it did against Illinois and become a bit less unpredictable?
How great can Ohio State’s defense be?
Ohio State has arguably the best defense in the country, and it should be compared to some of the best in the era.
I get more and more impressed by this defense each time I watch it.
Sure, the 16 points Ohio State allowed to Illinois were the most this season, and the 295 yards were the most since the season-opening win over Texas, but it was still an impressive performance.The Buckeyes forced three turnovers, limited an explosive Illinois passing game to a long pass of 20 yards and, for the sixth straight game, didn’t give up a touchdown in the first half. They’ve given up a total of 12 first-half points in six games.
Ohio State also dominated on third down again, holding the Illini to a 28 percent conversion rate. It’s second in the FBS at 21.8 percent for the season.
We are no longer comparing this defense to last year’s group; it’s better than that and can carry this team to a deep Playoff run. The conversation will become how this stacks up among the best defenses in the College Football Playoff era.
So far, its 41 points allowed are the fewest in the FBS this season and sixth-fewest through six games by any team since 2014, per Stathead. Personally, I think the conversation begins with the 2021 Georgia team, but there are also teams like 2018 Clemson and 2016 and 2017 Alabama to think about.
Let’s stick with comparing to 2021 Georgia for now.
That year, the Bulldogs gave up just 10 points per game and finished second with 267 yards per game. Georgia also gave up more than two touchdowns just once that season, in the SEC title loss to Alabama. They were the only team to give up fewer than 20 touchdowns that season. Ohio State could be around that mark.
The Buckeyes have given up just four touchdowns in six games and 229 yards per game.
There will be tough games ahead, especially with the expanded Playoff and a likely Big Ten title game bid, but it’s possible for Matt Patricia’s defense to reach those heights if they stay healthy and keep up the same sense of urgency.
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