J.J. McCarthy has won two of his five starts, and both victories came on the road against NFC North opponents.
Can the Minnesota Vikings’ struggling young quarterback go 3-for-3? We’ll find out this weekend. McCarthy topped the Bears and Lions in Chicago and Detroit. Now, he’ll get his crack at a Green Bay team working to find its footing.
It won’t be easy. The Packers defense has more talent than the Bears unit McCarthy faced last week. Green Bay’s offense isn’t a simple challenge, either. What are the Vikings’ chances? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: The Vikings sideline. If McCarthy continues to miss layup throws, can superstar receiver Justin Jefferson maintain his composure? He’s done a better job of it than most would. Minnesota may be a long shot to make the playoffs at this point, but that doesn’t mean the team’s expectations change. The players want a chance. Competitors do not lose their edge in divisional rivalry games like these. McCarthy analogized his play this week to a cork that’s about to pop in terms of how close he is to being more consistent. That’s hopeful, but until he shows evidence of that in the form of his footwork, posture, accuracy and decision-making, it doesn’t do much good. Talking about growth only works for so long. McCarthy must show it, even if that means cutting the number of egregious misses from four to two.
Krawczynski: Kevin O’Connell’s play calling. The head coach is a pass-first guy. But with McCarthy struggling, how will O’Connell react when it comes to the game plan? Two weeks ago, he called just 13 running plays for Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason against 42 passes for McCarthy. Last week, Jones and Mason got 22 touches in the run game. One would think that number will continue to climb this week. Jones has shown plenty of juice since returning from injury. McCarthy needs all the protection and support he can get. The best way to provide it is by giving him a strong running game that helps move the chains and gets him into manageable downs and distances. And when the opportunity for third-and-short arrives, KOC wants to be creative and aggressive, but he may need to take a more conservative bent until McCarthy proves he is ready to handle those situations.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: Micah Parsons. You cannot leave him one-on-one, even if you have tackles like Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. He also moves around. On one snap, he’ll line up over Darrisaw. On the next, he’ll slide inside and be ready to attack rookie left guard Donovan Jackson. Parsons has it all: strength, twitch, ferociousness. He is the type of pass rusher with enough juice off the edge to speed up McCarthy’s clock all afternoon. McCarthy cannot try to evade him with his legs. Parsons is simply too fast and explosive. But at the same time, McCarthy can’t feel a push from Parsons and move violently in the pocket, because that will do what it has done in previous games: throw off his mechanics. The Packers are one of the NFL’s best third-and-long defenses. Their opponents have converted just nine of 57 attempts in that situation in 2025. What makes them so difficult? Beyond defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s creativity, time is required to drop back against them, and time is what Parsons feasts on.
Krawczynski: The Vikings defense isn’t capable of taking a game over. When the season began, one of the reasons there was optimism for McCarthy was that he had a suffocating, big-play defense to back him and put him in advantageous positions. That certainly was the case in the win over the Bengals. Other than that, this defense has been solid but unspectacular. It is tied for 10th in sacks and has only created eight turnovers, five of which came in that Bengals game. Beating a division rival on the road usually requires a defense to make big plays to turn the game in its favor. The Minnesota defense has not shown that ability for weeks. If it can’t get to Love, if it can’t force fumbles or get its hands on an interception or two, it’s going to be very hard to pull this one out.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Jordan Love vs. Brian Flores. In the past couple of seasons, the Vikings defense has had a fair amount of success against the Packers offense. Flores has blitzed Love. That has prevented him from being able to sit back and pick the Vikings apart. Love has been effective this season against the blitz. It hurts not to have tight end Tucker Kraft as a safety valve, but Love has the athleticism and arm talent to make plays on the move. Last year, in the Vikings’ Week 17 victory against Green Bay, Flores threw a curveball at Love and head coach Matt LaFleur. Minnesota had played man coverage on about 15 percent of its snaps before the game. Then the Vikings played man coverage on about 38 percent of the snaps in the game. LaFleur admitted afterward that the Packers didn’t have enough answers, so expect him and Love to be prepared for the offspeed pitch this time around.
Krawczynski: Jordan Addison vs. himself. The Vikings receiver has tormented the Packers in the past, and he was doing the same thing to the Bears, only to have two big drops that proved costly. He is so talented, and the Vikings need him, Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson to be perfect for McCarthy. That may be unfair, but that is the job right now with a young quarterback. McCarthy has been so erratic that when he does put a good throw on one of his receivers, they have to catch it. If Addison makes the catch on that seam throw in the first quarter against Chicago, it could have been a touchdown. Score there, and the whole game changes. We should expect that Addison will be able to get himself open against the Packers secondary. When the ball comes his way, the Vikings can’t afford to see it hit the ground.
Most interesting overall storyline
Lewis: Where do the Vikings stand in the NFC North outlook? Detroit may not be as dominant as it has been in previous years, but the Lions have too many elite young players to fall too far. Chicago may not be as good as its 7-3 record, but the early returns on Ben Johnson have been exceptional. Green Bay has questions, too, but its roster is much younger than Minnesota’s, and its quarterback situation is far more stable. So, where does that leave Minnesota? A year ago, the Vikings were squarely in the fight against the Lions for the No. 1 seed, but that feels like eons ago. The roster is a year older, and while the team will have plenty of ways to smooth over the cap this offseason, the lack of budding young talent forces the team to be shopping in the free-agent bargain bin. It’s not a sustainable team-building model — especially when the three most familiar foes continue to be on the upswing.
Krawczynski: McCarthy’s learning curve. This has been quite a rollercoaster of a season. But that means there have been the occasional ups to go with the downs. The difficulty in evaluating McCarthy to this point has been this: He is not what Christian Ponder was during his short time here. It seemed quite clear from the get-go that Ponder was in over his head, likely incapable of developing into a player who could shoulder the responsibility a quarterback needs to take on. He ran for his life and jumped onto Adrian Peterson’s back in the one successful season the Vikings had with him at the helm. McCarthy has been wildly inaccurate and has had long stretches of ineptitude. But he has also had real moments of brilliance as well, particularly in the two fourth quarters against Chicago. He also played well in Detroit. There have been enough good stretches to keep the faith that it will eventually click into place. But there have been enough bad stretches to merit concern that he may not be the guy. But the rest of the season needs to be dedicated to getting a clearer picture.
How these teams match up from a data standpoint
Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:
Vikings
Packers
Off turnovers
31st
4th
Def turnovers
24th
28th
Off explosiveness
9th
4th
Def explosiveness
21st
2nd
Off efficiency
19th
8th
Def efficiency
16th
8th
Strength of schedule
23rd
27th
Predictions
Lewis: Packers 27, Vikings 17. It’s hard for me to pick the Vikings against a playoff team until McCarthy shows extensive progress. Quarterback performance is too predictive of results. Minnesota should be able to run the football, and Flores’ defense typically can keep the team in the fight. Force some Love turnovers, and it’s doable.
Krawczynski: Packers 28, Vikings 14. Like Alec, I just don’t see how I can pick the Vikings with McCarthy playing like this. I don’t think Love is anyone to be feared, but the Packers are more proven offensively and have shown the ability on defense to make big plays. That’s not a good combination for the purple.
