- George Kittle laying the foundation: Since Kittle’s Week 7 return, the 49ers rank ninth in EPA per play. Expect to hear his name called often in this matchup, as the Panthers have struggled covering tight ends — ranking last in the NFL in PFF coverage grade versus tight ends (28.5).
- Bryce Young poised for follow up to big Week 11 performance: Coming off of a massive 448-yard effort through the air, Bryce Young reminded everyone that he can flash his passing ability in the right conditions. His Week 12 matchup with the 49ers lines up as one of those scenarios.
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Game Overview
This game features two teams clawing for position in the NFC playoff picture. The 49ers, currently standing in third place in a tight race for the NFC West, are holding onto the No. 7 seed in the conference. The Panthers, currently on the outside of the NFC postseason standings, are looking to notch their fourth consecutive win on the road.
This matchup carries even more intrigue when you consider the Sunday night faceoff between the Buccaneers and Rams in LA (which has yet to take place at the time of this writing). The result of that game has far-reaching repercussions. A Buccaneers loss would put the Panthers in position to take control of the NFC South with a win, while a Rams defeat would narrow the gap even further in the NFC West.
The 49ers enter as more than touchdown favorites after an impressive return from Brock Purdy in Week 11 propelled the franchise to a 19-point win as road favorites in Arizona. That was a welcome boost to a 49ers team that has struggled to cover at home, holding just a 25% cover rate at Levi’s Stadium — including an 0-2 mark against the spread as the favorite.
Even prior to Purdy’s return, this 49ers offense was getting back in rhythm due in large part to George Kittle coming back to the lineup. Since his Week 7 return, the 49ers rank ninth in EPA per play. Expect to hear his name called often in this matchup, as the Panthers have struggled covering tight ends — ranking last in the NFL in PFF coverage grade versus tight ends (28.5).
Despite being significant underdogs, the Panthers have performed well when taking seven or more points, holding a 2-1 ATS record. The 49ers defense has underperformed in the absence of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, ranking 29th in EPA per play allowed.
QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: Over 205.5 passing yards (-114)
Coming off of a massive 448-yard performance through the air, Bryce Young reminded everyone that he can flash his passing ability in the right conditions. His Week 12 matchup with the 49ers lines up as one of those scenarios.
Without Fred Warner in the lineup, the 49ers’ coverage unit has lagged significantly at slowing down passers, allowing the highest EPA per dropback and the third-most passing yard per attempt (7.62). That deficiency was glaring in Week 11, as Jacoby Brissett threw for a career-best 452 yards. Indeed, last week’s performance marked San Francisco’s sixth outing having allowed more than 240 passing yards since Week 5.
Young’s improvements are reminiscent of what we saw down the stretch from the young quarterback last season, particularly as it pertains to his ability to push the ball down field on throws of 10 or more yards. That aspect of Young’s game was highlighted by PFF’s Dalton Wasserman.
If Young can tap into that part of his game again, he could take advantage of a 49ers defense that surrenders the fourth-highest explosive passing play percentage (17.1%).
