Doug Jones ‘got clobbered’ by Tuberville in 2020: Could a rematch for Alabama governor be different?

Former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones is the last Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama but pulling that off again in the governor’s race next year is a longshot, analysts say.

Jones’ narrow win over Republican Roy Moore in the 2017 special election for the Senate came after Moore was crippled by news stories alleging sexual improprieties from decades before that Moore said never happened.

In Jones’ re-election bid three years later, the senator mustered only 40% of the vote in a lopsided loss to first-time candidate Tommy Tuberville.

On Sunday, Jones confirmed what he had hinted at two weeks earlier.

He’s ready to run for office again, this time for governor.

That sets up a possible rematch with Tuberville, who chose the governor’s race over seeking a second term in the Senate.

“Assuming he’s the Democratic nominee and Tuberville’s the Republican nominee, it sets it up for a very interesting matchup with two candidates, both of whom have good name identification, which is a big part of being electable,” said Lori Owens, a political science professor at Jacksonville State University.

“But also it would mean that Tuberville will be working harder to win in a general election because he wouldn’t be running against just a stand-in, just a name on the ballot, somebody holding the place on the Democratic ballot. He’d be running against somebody who has won and who has a career record himself.

“Now, that doesn’t change the political dynamics in terms of this is a ruby red state.”

Jess Brown, former political science professor at Athens State University and longtime observer of Alabama elections, said Jones gives Democrats a credible name on the ballot, but that does not mean winning is plausible.

In the 2020 race, the Jones campaign spent more than $30 million, three times what Tuberville’s campaign spent, and still barely moved the needle above the normal Democratic vote in statewide races.

“Doug Jones, as an incumbent senator with a healthy campaign war chest, lost the 2020 senate election to Tuberville by a margin of 20 percentage points,” Brown said in an email.

“Basically, Jones got clobbered. He acquired only four or five percentage points more than the Democratic base vote in the state.”

Tuberville’s 60% to 40% margin over Jones was almost identical to Donald Trump’s 62% to 37% edge over Joe Biden in Alabama that year.

“Jones, as a former U.S. Senator, brings a very credible candidate to the table for the Democrats in terms of resume’,” Brown said. “But, as of today, his electability to the governor’s office in 2026 is still in the category of a dream.

“Tuberville, as a senator, may have made some public statements which are controversial and of questionable accuracy, but Jones will not be able to overcome the political baggage associated with the negative image of the national Democratic Party in Alabama.”

Steve Flowers, an author, former state legislator, and longtime commentator on Alabama politics, said he does not think a Jones-Tuberville race in 2026 would be much different than six years ago.

“I don’t think anything’s changed since then. I really don’t,” Flowers said. “He might, if he runs a good campaign, get 42 (percent).”

Even though Jones is better known than most Democrats who have run in recent years, Flowers said the numbers are stacked against him, as well as the fact that Alabamians tend to vote by party, rather than individual candidate, in the general election.

In 2024, 67.7% of Alabama voters cast straight-party ballots. That included 1,001,337 who voted straight-Republican, compared to 537,793 who voted straight-Democrat.

Flowers said a textbook case that shows the ceiling for Democrats in Alabama was Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox’s campaign against Gov. Kay Ivey in 2018.

Maddox ran a highly visible campaign, repeatedly calling out the governor for refusing to debate, and still got barely more than 40%.

“I think Walt Maddox was really a better candidate than Doug Jones,” Flowers said.

“Proven mayor, not perceived as being liberal, sort of a normal type of guy. He gave it his All-American try.

“That was I thought the benchmark of what a Democrat could get.”

Flowers said Jones could be positioning himself for the possibility that Tuberville’s campaign is derailed by questions over whether he meets the requirement in the Alabama constitution that he live in the state at least seven years before the election.

Even if that happened, Flowers said, he does not think Jones could win because Republicans could find an alternative candidate.

“I have no idea who that would be, but they would have time,” Flowers said.

“I still think an unknown or at least a viable or solid Republican would still beat a Democrat, whether it’s Tuberville or another Republican.”

Owens said Tuberville has the advantage of being able to lean on his alliance with President Trump, which has been a constant during Tuberville’s time in Washington.

The Democratic party has been almost shut out in statewide races for almost two decades.

Before Jones’ win over Roy Moore in 2017, the last Democrat to win a statewide election was Lucy Baxley in a Public Service Commission race in 2008.

Owens said having Jones on the ballot could be a step toward the party starting to rebuild.

“They need to take a page from the Republican playbook and quit running candidates that have no appeal just to have them run and run credible people,” Owens said.

“And you could be strategic about it with just certain races, starting out that way.

“It does provide competition, which is a good thing in the political atmosphere,” Owens said. “So it would invigorate, if you will, the Democratic ballot up and down.”

“Now for the state Democrats to gain real ground, they would have to be willing to separate themselves more from the national Democratic party.”

Jones, 71, was born in Fairfield where his father was a steelworker and his mother a homemaker, according to the Encyclopedia of Alabama.

Jones graduated from the University of Alabama and Cumberland School of Law at Samford University and later worked as counsel to U.S. Sen. Howell Heflin.

From 1997 to 2001, Jones was U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, an appointee of President Clinton.

Jones prosecuted Eric Robert Rudolph, who planted bombs at a Birmingham abortion clinic and the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, as well as Thomas Blanton and Bobby Cherry, who were convicted for the Sixteenth Avenue Baptist Church explosion that killed four girls in 1963.

“He can’t deny he’s a Democrat,” Owens said. “But there’s parts of his record that that would be appealing to people in Alabama.

“He could talk about what are some of the issues that are of concern to Alabamians. If we’re still having inflation heading into the November general election. The closing of rural hospitals. Adequate child care.

“All of those kinds of issues that have plagued our state for some time. He could also talk about the brain drain. A lot of our college graduates leave the state of Alabama for jobs elsewhere.”

Jones will have some competition for the Democratic nomination.

Other Democrats who are running include pastor Will Boyd, who has been a Democratic nominee three times – for the U.S. Senate in 2022, lieutenant governor in 2018, and 5th Congressional District in 2016.

After news about Jones entering the race, Boyd’s campaign sent out a fundraising email that said nothing has changed about their plans.

“My team and I remain focused on the people of Alabama,” Boyd said.

“For months my team and I have been visiting communities across the state, listening to families, and building a grassroots campaign centered on jobs, healthcare, and opportunity.

“We are still running with a vision to heal our state, bring people together, and finally unify Alabama.”

Business owner Chad “Chig” Martin of Enterprise is also running for the Democratic nomination.

According to the secretary of state, Boyd’s campaign has raised $31,000 and Martin’s has raised $15,000.

Tuberville, on the other hand, has raised $8.2 million.

Owens said Jones will make the race more competitive and more interesting.

“Most people don’t like coronations, if you will, of elected officials,” Owens said. “So this will be a good, old fashioned duke-it-out battle.”

Brown said competition is good but said there’s no sign that Democrats are gaining ground in Alabama.

Brown said the narrow margin in Moore’s loss to Jones eight years ago despite the sexual allegations against Moore showed how hard it is for Democrats to win in the state. Jones got 50% to 48.3% for Moore.

“Realistically the GOP will carry approximately 45 to 50 counties in Alabama in a general election even if that party nominates Donald Duck,” Brown wrote in an email.

“Donald, while possessing a weak set of credentials, would not have the type of political weaknesses that Roy Moore possessed in 2017 when Doug Jones achieved a razor thin victory in a special senatorial election.

“While such Republican dominance is not a healthy environment for accountable government, as genuine competition between the parties would be, it is the current reality in Alabama.”