Betting on the NFL is a grind, and at this point in the year, injuries are prevalent and the market is getting more efficient by the day. Luckily for us, we keep grinding out some profit.
Last week was a profitable week, albeit small. I’ll take that every single week for the rest of my life. We beat the market on all three plays, though the Packers were by a tiny margin. The Rams and Patriots plays beat the market by a wide margin. Unfortunately, getting ahead of the Joe Burrow news didn’t pay off as the Bengals slept through most of the game, and a pick-six aided the Bengals cover.
Good process equals good results, so let’s keep it rolling into Thanksgiving weekend.
Last week’s record: 2-1, +0.91 units
Season record: 34-21, +11.28 units, +18.7% ROI
Another small card to kick off the week, but we have a play on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, so some action to root for before the weekend gets underway. There are a few games that I’m monitoring that could be added, but nothing as it stands right now. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
NFL Week 13 best bets
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-115) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Worst price to bet: Cowboys +3 (-110)
In what will likely be the most-watched game of the regular season, I’m going to fade Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in favor of the Cowboys. What could go wrong?
Ultimately, I think we are still underrating the improvement of the Cowboys defense since the trade deadline. Quinnen Williams gives them a dominant interior presence, and while the secondary still leaves a bit to be desired, I think the front seven will be disruptive enough to keep the Chiefs in check.
On the other side of the ball, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are becoming quite the duo for this offense. They’re efficient through the air as well as the ground, and if you’re going to give me more than a field goal, I can’t resist.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles under 44.5 (-110)
Worst price to bet: Under 44 (-110)
What scares me about this game is that the Bears defense is pretty poor, and with their injuries at linebacker, that could give the Eagles the edge to move the ball quite efficiently. But at the end of the day, the Eagles have struggled to consistently move the ball both through the air and on the ground.
Caleb Williams and the Bears offense haven’t faced this caliber of defense over the past two months, other than the Vikings. Against Minnesota, the Bears scored 19 points and gained just 4.4 yards per play. The Bears might be at the top of the NFC North, but they still have a long way to go to prove to my model that they’re an actual playoff-quality team. Give me the under.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers under 41.5 (-112)
Worst price to bet: Under 41 (-110)
Both of these offensive lines are horrific, and that’s not a recipe for points in today’s NFL. To put this in perspective, without offensive tackle Joe Alt, the Chargers have performed similarly to the Jets and Vikings. With Alt, they are performing like the Patriots per FTNData.
I don’t know if I need to dive into why I like the Raiders to not score points in this game, but I will anyway. Geno Smith has been brutal against pressure this year and especially bad when you don’t have to blitz to generate that pressure. The Chargers defense thrives on generating pressure without blitzing. They blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league.
