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As we start weekly bowl projections through Selection Sunday (Dec. 7), 52 teams have become postseason-eligible, and 22 are one win away from earning a bowl bid with 82 spots at stake. Beyond the College Football Playoff race, there are some interesting developing stories in the push for bowl season, especially among the season’s most disappointing teams.
Florida State has fluctuated between big wins and crushingly close losses. After blasting Wake Forest on Saturday, the Seminoles (4-4) face three teams with losing records over their final four games, two of which have already fired their head coach. But as we’ve seen, Florida State can win — or lose — any game.
North Carolina (3-5) has shown improvement the last three weeks, and with three wins over the final four games, Bill Belichick’s crew will become bowl eligible. The Tar Heels play Stanford this week, then close the season against their three in-state ACC rivals: Wake Forest, Duke and NC State.
Penn State (3-5) has yet to win in Big Ten play and is a 13-point home underdog to No. 2 Indiana this week. But the Nittany Lions have three winnable games to close out the season: at Michigan State, home against Nebraska and at Rutgers.
Clemson (3-5) and Florida (3-5) also have opportunities to enter the bowl picture, but they’re not there yet. Let’s see an upset or two before they make our projected field.
A couple of notes:
This is the second season for the 12-team CFP field, and it has not yet been decided whether it will remain as is or expand to 16 teams for the 2026-27 season. As for this year, the highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large selections qualify for the CFP.
The top four teams earn first-round byes without regard to conference championship results. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively.
The former Pac-12 schools still are slotted based on the conference’s old agreements, which expire after the season. But it’s possible those deals could extend by a year, depending on CFP negotiations. In the meantime, we might see an in-conference clash in the Alamo or Vegas bowls.
The Bahamas Bowl, which is owned by ESPN Events, will move to an undetermined location next month.
BowlMatchup
Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025
8 Texas Tech
9 BYU
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
6 Oregon
11 Virginia
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
5 Georgia
12 Memphis
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
7 Ole Miss
10 Notre Dame
Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025
2 Indiana
Ole Miss/ND winner
Orange
Jan. 1, 2026
4 Alabama
UGA/Memphis winner
Rose
Jan. 1, 2026
1 Ohio State
Texas Tech/BYU winner
Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026
3 Texas A&M
Oregon/UVA winner
Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Peach
Jan. 9, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Championship
Jan. 19, 2026
SF winner
SF winner
BowlMatchup
LA
Dec. 13, 2025
Pac-12 6 Arizona
MWC 1 San Diego State
Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025
Sun Belt Troy
MAC Miami (OH)
Cure
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt James Madison
G5/Open USF
68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt Coastal Carolina
MAC Buffalo
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025
Sun Belt Old Dominion
Open Western Kentucky
Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025
SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State
Open Kansas
Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025
MWC UNLV
MAC Central Michigan
Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025
Open UConn
Open Marshall
New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025
Sun Belt Southern Miss
CUSA Kennesaw State
Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025
G5 Arkansas State
G5/Open North Texas
Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025
MWC Hawaii
American East Carolina
GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 8 Northwestern
MAC Western Michigan
Rate
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 7 Minnesota
Big 12 6 Iowa State
First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025
Open California
Open UTSA
Military
Dec. 27, 2025
American Navy
ACC 8 Wake Forest
Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025
Big Ten 6 Penn State
ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 9 NC State
American Temple
Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC Boise State
MAC 2 Ohio
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 3 Cincinnati
ACC 2-4 Louisville
New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC New Mexico
Open Washington State
Gator
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 2-4 Miami
SEC 3-8 Tennessee
Texas
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 4 Houston
SEC 3-8 LSU
Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025
ACC/SEC/Open North Carolina
SEC/ACC/Open Maryland
Independence
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 7 Baylor
CUSA Louisiana Tech
Music City
Dec. 30, 2025
Big Ten 5 Illinois
SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 2 TCU
Pac-12 2 Washington
ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 3 Iowa
SEC 3-8 Oklahoma
Sun
Dec. 31, 2025
ACC 5-7 SMU
Pac-12 5 Arizona State
Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 2 Michigan
SEC 2 Texas
Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025
Pac-12 3 Utah
Big Ten 4 Nebraska
Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026
Open Fresno State
American Tulane
Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026
Big 12 5 Kansas State
SEC 3-8 Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026
SEC 3-8 Missouri
ACC 5-7 Duke
Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026
ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech
Pac-12 4 USC
Bahamas/TBD
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MAC Toledo
CUSA Jacksonville State
