The overall coming weather scenario hasn’t changed much overnight. There have been a few tweaks to the snowfall forecast. These tweaks have increased the snow expectation for a couple of areas.
Here’s the total snowfall forecast for Lower Michigan from today through Friday morning. This snow event should be essentially over by sunrise Friday.
This will be a pure lake-effect snow. The snowbelts of northwest Lower Michigan and southwest Lower Michigan will get the heaviest snow, but all of Lower Michigan should have at least an inch of snow.
Total snowfall expected through 7 a.m. Saturday, November 29. Most of the snow will fall before 7 a.m. Friday.NOAA
Here are the changes from yesterday’s thinking:
For southeast Lower, the main oddity with this lake-effect snow event is the strong wind carrying two lake-effect snow bands farther east than usual. One band of snow is expected to stretch from Lake Superior to Lake Michigan to across Saginaw Bay.
This is why the Thumb has the potential for up to 6 inches of snow, with that heaviest area probably located around Bad Axe and Harbor Beach. The second long band of lake-effect will boost snow totals around Ann Arbor and Jackson up to 2 to 4 inches of snow.
Total snowfall expected through 7 a.m. Saturday, November 29. Most of the snow will fall before 7 a.m. Friday.NOAA
For southwest Lower Michigan, the heaviest snow band continues to look like it will set up aimed for the Kalamazoo area. The snow forecast has been boosted there to 8 inches to 12 inches total snow by Friday morning. Grand Rapids is in an area that doesn’t get the heaviest snow on a northwest wind. Still, Grand Rapids can expect 2 to 6 inches of snow from northeast to southwest.
Total snowfall expected through 7 a.m. Saturday, November 29. Most of the snow will fall before 7 a.m. Friday.NOAA
Over northern Lower Michigan, the tweak has been to increase the snow amount to 12 to 18 inches for part of Kalkaska County. The rest of northwest Lower Michigan, including Traverse City, should still expect 6 or more inches of snow. The exception will likely be close to Lake Michigan, where the strong winds will actually blow the heaviest snow past the shoreline, keeping amounts less than 6 inches and maybe as low as 3 inches.
Total snowfall expected through 7 a.m. Saturday, November 29. Most of the snow will fall before 7 a.m. Friday.NOAA
The Upper Peninsula snow forecast hasn’t changed. The U.P. is still expecting a bunch of snow. The heaviest snow will total out near 2 feet in the western U.P.
Total snowfall expected through 7 a.m. Saturday, November 29. Most of the snow will fall before 7 a.m. Friday.NOAA
The heaviest snow doesn’t really get cranking until this evening. Since this is lake-effect snow, the intensity will vary a lot through Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night.
The snow should rapidly taper off Friday morning.
The rapid tapering is because the wind will shift to a direction that doesn’t make lake-effect snow. The reason for the wind shift is the next approaching storm, which will have a whole different personality.
The next storm system is shaping up to be a snowstorm for the entire Lower Peninsula. That snow should start Saturday and end sometime Sunday. I’ll have more on that storm system later today.
So if you are traveling, it looks like the safest time for a return drive to Michigan will be Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.
Stay updated with this snowy, stormy weather period at MLive.com/weather.
