Maybe it’s fitting that this Cleveland Cavaliers season starts Wednesday night in New York. Given the shakeup over the summer in the Eastern Conference, it will be a mild upset if neither the New York Knicks nor the Cavaliers are in the conference finals in seven months.
They will start the season as the two best teams in the East, although the Orlando Magic or maybe even the Atlanta Hawks might ultimately have something to say about that.
This Cavaliers core is entering its fourth season together, which is an eternity these days in the NBA. If the Cavs are going to make an NBA Finals run, this season is their best chance to do it with this group.
They have the depth, shooting and roster flexibility. DeAndre Hunter should be fully incorporated following a normal offseason and full training camp. Coach Kenny Atkinson didn’t spend his summer trying to learn 15 new players while flying overseas to prepare for the Olympics as he did last year. Sure, there are early-season injury concerns, but nothing that will linger into the second half of the season.
The Cavs essentially committed to the bulk of this roster once they made the trade for Hunter at last season’s deadline, all but cementing their status as a second-apron team for this season. Heaping a “Finals or bust” label on any team seems unfair, but given the stakes and what this team has already accomplished, and where it failed in the spring, I don’t see another alternative for the league’s most expensive roster.
The Cavs entering second-apron waters starts many ticking clocks. They are a luxury tax team for the first time since 2018, which triggers the repeat offender clock. That one isn’t as urgent right now as the second apron threshold. The Cavs’ 2033 first-round pick will be frozen next summer as a result.
The three inaugural second apron teams last season — the Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves — will all dip below the line this season. The Timberwolves, in particular, might be a road map for the Cavs as well.
Any team that is in the second apron for three out of five seasons will have its frozen draft pick moved to the bottom of the first round, regardless of their finish in the standings. It made sense for the Suns and Celtics to pivot under the line after last season.
The Suns were never serious championship contenders, and the Celtics’ chances took a massive hit once Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles. The Timberwolves are one year ahead of the Cavs in timing, trying to negotiate a massive payroll while still contending for a championship. Minnesota seems to be opting against burning a second consecutive season in its five-year window above the second apron.
The Cavs could be setting up for a similar maneuver.
Acquiring Lonzo Ball over the summer could help them on the court this year and in the payroll department next year. Ball could be an important playmaker if they can keep him upright and healthy in April, May and June.
The Cavs also hold a $10 million option on Ball for the 2026-27 season. If the experiment doesn’t work this year (or even if it does), the Cavs can decline his option next summer and move toward wiggling under the second apron for 2026-27, buying themselves a bit more time into the future as they ponder another extension for Donovan Mitchell.
The Cavaliers’ core of Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Max Strus, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley hope for a promising season. (Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
For now, Mitchell, Hunter, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are under team control at least through next season (and in some instances much longer) before Mitchell has a decision to make on his 2027-28 option. He’ll most likely decline it if he’s healthy and playing well, setting himself up for another mammoth contract at age 31.
Remember, teams essentially get two bites over five years at the second apron, and the third bite results in the plummeting draft pick. When to fire that second bullet into the second apron is a strategy teams are still calculating.
These are issues for down the road, of course, and just something to ponder as the Cavs try to meet lofty expectations this season. Team president Koby Altman has often cited the Cavs’ long runway for contention. The league’s new rules are actively working to dismantle super teams. How the Cavs navigate payroll in the future bears watching.
For now, a team with championship expectations takes its first step with that pressure to win firmly in the locker room every night.
I don’t know how many people expected Atkinson would guide the Cavs to a championship on opening night last year. Was it possible? Sure. Was it the expectation? I don’t believe so.
Then the Cavs quickly became the darlings of the league with that blistering 15-0 start, which made the crash at the end hurt just a little bit more. Now there are immense expectations, higher than ever, and a team whose mental and physical toughness has been questioned for five months will be expected to meet them.
Now, Mobley is a max player and is expected to perform as such. Altman has pointed to continued internal development as a means to improve, and Mobley is at the top of that list. Few players in the league will be expected to take a bigger leap. How he handles the pressure of that and whether he can meet expectations remains to be seen.
I believe this Cavs team will go as far as Mobley, not Mitchell, can carry them. The shifting of that burden from one star to the other begins tonight.
