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What will the College Football Playoff selection committee’s penultimate Top 25 look like Tuesday night?
As we close in on selection day on Sunday, I’m here again to predict what I think the committee will do using my projections model. The rankings stayed fairly steady last week, but this week’s will account for No. 3 Texas A&M’s loss to Texas and perhaps provide further clarity about the bubble debate, the chaos in the ACC and whether or not the committee makes any changes to how it views Ole Miss after head coach Lane Kiffin left for LSU.
Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 14
Rank
Team
Record
SOR
SOS
1
12-0
1
60
2
12-0
3
51
3
11-1
4
19
4
11-1
8
54
5
11-1
7
39
6
11-1
5
32
7
11-1
2
15
8
10-2
9
14
9
10-2
13
47
10
10-2
10
13
11
11-1
6
38
12
10-2
12
37
13
9-3
23
4
14
10-2
11
16
15
10-2
14
49
16
9-3
17
28
17
10-2
16
81
18
9-3
19
26
19
9-3
20
52
20
11-1
24
115
21
10-2
15
76
22
9-3
21
61
23
11-1
25
121
24
8-4
37
23
25
8-4
34
29
Next five: Navy, Missouri, Houston, South Florida, Washington
Strength of record and strength of schedule rankings are based on The Athletic’s model
Biggest questions: Will Ole Miss drop? Where will JMU and Duke be?
Ole Miss was ranked No. 7 last week before its Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State and Kiffin’s departure. Could the committee actually penalize Ole Miss for losing its head coach?
I don’t think it will happen. The Rebels, who are 11-1 and were ranked one spot ahead of a 10-2 Oklahoma team they beat head-to-head, certainly won’t drop out of the at-large spots. If they did drop, it’s a question of whether they will stay in the top eight and host a first-round Playoff game. Dropping Ole Miss because of a coaching change would be an unprecedented move, as the closest comparison is when Florida State fell behind Alabama in 2023 after losing quarterback Jordan Travis. But the field had only four teams then, and it’s difficult to factor this variable into our model.
For now, my projections don’t reflect any drop for Ole Miss. In fact, the Rebels move ahead of Texas A&M in my model. Will Ole Miss get worse as a team without Kiffin? Probably. But unlike Florida State without Travis, the committee hasn’t seen Ole Miss without Kiffin yet and would be projecting forward. I don’t expect much of an impact on its ranking.
The other question is one we might not even get an answer to Tuesday.
Remember, the ACC is not guaranteed a Playoff spot — the selection process selects the five highest-ranked conference champions. There are no conference tie-ins. Duke will play Virginia in the ACC Championship Game this weekend with a possible spot on the line. If Virginia wins, it will be in. But what if Duke wins? The problem is that Duke is 7-5, and I’m not sure it’s been close to the Top 25 this year. This is also unprecedented, as I have no data on how the committee views teams outside of the Top 25. It’s the fun — or annoying — part about modeling sports.
James Madison, which is 11-1 and could become the fifth-highest-ranked champion if it wins the Sun Belt, hasn’t been ranked either. I’ve actually had the Dukes ranked the past few weeks, and my model thinks they have the superior resume (JMU’s strength of record is 25th, far ahead of Duke at 65th). My model does include some randomness to account for the human element of the ranking process, for the record.
But again, I don’t know if we see either team ranked. And if we do see James Madison ranked, it doesn’t mean that a Top 25 victory over Virginia isn’t enough to push Duke past JMU, which is playing Troy. It’s perhaps the biggest question as we head into Tuesday’s rankings, even if it’s possible we don’t get any clarity.
One final question: I thought about again bringing up the Notre Dame vs. Miami debate, but I’ll put that to bed quickly. No, I don’t think Miami will be close enough to Notre Dame this week to allow head-to-head to come into the conversation. My projections give Notre Dame a 95 percent chance of making the field, with Miami at just 1 percent.
What the 12-team bracket would look like
The bracket below is based on the projected selection committee rankings for Dec. 2. Find my projections for the final bracket here.
