With money, fame and opportunity as accessible as ever in college football, NFL teams hope quarterbacks are enjoying that lifestyle enough to stay in school, rather than rushing into the draft.
That’s never been truer under the current landscape than this NFL Draft cycle. The crop of eligible quarterbacks was largely uninspiring this season, prompting teams to cross their fingers that these players will return to school to refine their skills. There’s no substitute for experience, and it’s advantageous for all involved if the QBs accumulate snaps in a more controlled environment than the NFL.
“It doesn’t benefit us (in the NFL) if all these guys come out early and aren’t ready,” said an NFL team executive, who was granted anonymity so he could speak openly.
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Texas’ Arch Manning have generated the most attention from teams as potential first-round picks among draft-eligible quarterbacks. However, Manning is expected to return to school, and there’s a case to be made for the rest to follow suit.
All five have enough tools to grow into NFL starters, according to evaluators. All five would also benefit from an extra season of college — some, of course, more than others.
“I don’t know why any of them would consider leaving,” a second executive said. “Why not go play college football and build yourself to get to that level? I think it helps everybody. I think it puts a better product on the field in college. It helps us evaluate them longer, as they get real reps to amass experience before coming to our level.
“It helps our evaluation. It helps their preparation. It helps their maturity. They learn how to lead better. They learn how to handle adversity better.”
Mendoza seems to be the most likely quarterback of the group to declare. He’s a well-rounded prospect who is under consideration to be the top QB picked in the 2026 NFL Draft, and should fit into the first round either way. However, teams want to feel more comfortable with his personality and leadership ability. And if he stayed in college to work on areas that’d help him take over games, that could make him a far more valuable prospect.
Moore could soon become the poster child of this year’s stay-or-go debate. The 20-year-old is also being considered as the top quarterback in the class. However, while he has a high ceiling due to his athleticism, it’s still a projection given his inconsistencies over 17 collegiate starts. If Moore stays long enough to ride a Jayden Daniels-type of trajectory, he’ll lock himself into being a top-five pick.
One executive, who said he’d take Moore as the top QB this year, also didn’t believe Moore was ready for the NFL because of a shortage of playing time. Therein lies the debate’s dichotomy — the player’s draft stock is high enough even if his readiness is not.
“You never want to put him on the field before he’s ready,” a Power 5 director of player personnel said.
Simpson and Sellers aren’t all that different from Moore.
Simpson has played the best of the group, but he’s a first-year starter who caught evaluators by surprise with his rapid ascension. He has played well in challenging SEC environments, but let’s not pretend an extra season of adjustments, refinements and the like wouldn’t aid his NFL preparation. Could he play one more season and gain more command of the offense, not unlike Joe Burrow’s improvements from 2018 to 2019?
Sellers, also 20, has immense physical traits, to the point where he was a strong preseason candidate to emerge as the No. 1 pick in the draft. But South Carolina’s offensive line has presented challenges in Sellers’ evaluation, and he is also more of a projection than a certainty. More time in a better system could get him back into the QB1 conversation.
“The longer they stay in college,” a second Power 5 director said, “the more info (NFL teams) have to confirm or deny what they thought about the kid.”
In a sense, it’s never been easier to advise players to stay in school. The two Power 5 directors said starting quarterbacks can earn between $1 million and $5 million per season in NIL and marketing opportunities, with projected draft prospects at premium schools earning closer to the higher end of that spectrum.
And since players can transfer more freely, they can seek out better opportunities, coaching or systems to develop weaker areas. Last year, Cam Ward jumped from Washington State to Miami and skyrocketed from a mid-round prospect to the No. 1 pick. The Hurricanes knew the NFL wanted to see Ward featured as an offensive catalyst, sold him on the plan and delivered.
Recruiters have to be refreshingly honest with players in the transfer portal.
“This is what the NFL thinks of you. This is what your teammates think of you,” the second college director said of a typical pitch. “Let’s help you.”
It’s easier to find help in college than in the NFL, where first-round quarterbacks often double as shields for a coach’s or general manager’s job security. Or they are thrust into action earlier than expected to soothe a frustrated fan base.
It’s one thing for a team to say it will sit a young QB for an extended stretch, as the Green Bay Packers did with Jordan Love. However, it’s another thing to follow through with that plan.
Those are just some of the elements that come with the territory before a quarterback even sniffs the field. From there, it’s another beast entirely.
“It’s a lot easier to develop in a college program, a place and an offense you know against college teams and college players — not against pro players who are fighting for their jobs in both practice and games,” a third NFL executive said. “If you don’t play a good game (in college) and this defensive end from Oregon State hits you, OK.
“But if you do that, and it’s Myles Garrett hitting you, that’s just different. And then the next guy next week is going to be out to destroy you. It’s a lot easier to bounce back and handle the growing pains in college than to do it in the NFL.
“You’re getting thrown to the wolves. The NFL is not forgiving.”
While finances shouldn’t be the singular driving force in the decision to leave school, NFL money is hard to turn down. Ward’s four-year, fully guaranteed contract is worth nearly $49 million. Jaxson Dart, the No. 25 pick in April, landed $17 million fully guaranteed over four years.
For reference, third-rounder Jalen Milroe got a four-year, $6.26 million deal, with $1.2 million guaranteed. Fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders, speculated as a first-rounder throughout the pre-draft process, got a signing bonus worth $447,000 — a massive pay reduction from his final season at Colorado.
Draft-eligible underclassman can ask the NFL College Advisory Committee for an evaluation, which includes their projected draft grade by round. One of the college directors said it’s typically not even worth asking a player with a first-round grade to return because the money is better in the NFL.
NFL teams can’t meet with college players until the draft process, but scouts and executives can gauge a college staff to understand where a player is leaning in the draft. And if a player is expressing his desire to leave too early, some early feedback can be relayed through similar channels.
While returning to school is typically advantageous, there are concerns.
For example, those quarterbacks tend to get picked apart without mercy throughout their final season. Just consider the backlash Manning has faced with every errant throw, not to mention the reckless overreaction to his season debut against Ohio State. It may not be a perfect illustration because Manning wasn’t eligible for the 2025 draft, but his spotlight invited more criticism than anything someone like Mendoza has seen this season.
However, that’s nothing compared to entering the NFL too early and getting lost in a place without a direction.
“Because of the NIL piece of it, I don’t know why you’d turn down guaranteed millions when you don’t have a clear path at our level,” the second NFL executive said. “It is so hard to get to that path at our level. And you’re the man at Texas, or Miami, or Georgia or wherever, that’s not a bad life. Just slow down and take advantage of that opportunity.”
Trey Lance, Anthony Richardson, and J.J. McCarthy are recent examples of first-round picks who declared early and got stuck in no-man’s-land at the start of their careers. Lance only played one full season at North Dakota State, which postponed all but one game from its 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so he entered the 2021 draft a full year removed from live action.
Lance didn’t win the San Francisco 49ers’ starting job as a rookie, suffered two season-ending injuries and is now a backup for the Los Angeles Chargers, his third team, after being traded from San Francisco to the Dallas Cowboys while still on his rookie contract. He’s started six total games since 2020, so his lack of experience in college got compounded by an absence of experience in the NFL.
Richardson tallied just 13 starts at Florida before the Indianapolis Colts took him at No. 4 in the 2023 draft. He dealt with injuries and maturity issues, only started 15 games in his first two seasons and was outclassed by Daniel Jones in the team’s training camp competition. It would take an improbable combination of factors for Richardson to figure into the Colts’ plans at the position, meaning they’ve burnt a highly valuable asset at a crucial point of their rebuild.
McCarthy was a two-year starter and national champion at Michigan, so he had playing experience. But teams were concerned before the 2024 draft that McCarthy was too much of a projection because he hadn’t been asked to carry the Wolverines’ passing attack.
He missed his rookie season with a torn meniscus and has struggled badly in six starts, with more injuries. The Vikings appear torn between strategies of trying to win now or developing McCarthy for the future. If their patience expires this offseason, McCarthy could become the latest lost soul banished to the backup circuit.
If Lance played it differently and tried to transfer to a Power 5 school, if Richardson had stayed for another year in Gainesville and if McCarthy found a collegiate system with a more dynamic passing attack, it’s not a stretch to imagine their NFL careers being more fruitful.
“I think that’s why these guys aren’t as desperate to come out,” the first NFL executive said. “It’s good for the league. It’s good for everybody. The only place they’re going to get these live reps is in college. I think you’re going to see that as a trend.”
Their careers aren’t dead, not as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have shown. However, those circuitous routes came with a financial blow and a few uppercuts to the ego.
There’s never a magic, all-encompassing answer with the draft, especially at quarterback. Returning, like Daniels and Drake Maye chose to do after the 2023 season, prepared both for wildly early success, but it’s anything but a guarantee. It’s entirely plausible Penn State’s Drew Allar and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier would’ve had better draft stock if they declared in 2025, although it remains to be determined how the extra time in college prepared them for the next step.
Kenny Pickett attempted the third-most collegiate passes of any first-round pick over the past decade and is on his fourth team in four years. But Josh Allen was an unknown commodity at Wyoming, with limited experience, throwing fewer passes in college than McCarthy, and he is the reigning NFL MVP.
For every Peyton Manning, there’s a JaMarcus Russell. For every Dart, there’s a handful of Paxton Lynches. For every Tom Brady, there are dozens upon dozens of sixth-rounders living in obscurity.
The NFL Draft is a guessing game, but there’s an alternative path that brings a dose of certainty. By staying in school, quarterbacks collect life-altering paychecks while being afforded the requisite time to round out their games — all without the pressure of saving a franchise.
With reservations over the readiness of the upcoming draft class, NFL evaluators are hoping the long-term approach can help everyone involved.
