Simms has finally taken the lead.
Down nine games after only two weeks, he has chipped and chipped and chipped away.
Last week, he went 12-4. I was 11-5. For the year, he’s now 131-62-1. I’m 130-63-1.
Against the spread, I went 10-5-1. He was 9-6-1. I lead by nine games, 105-86-3 to 96-95-3.
This week, we disagree on five games. For all picks, you know what to do.
Cowboys at Lions (-3)
The Cowboys are surging. The Lions are struggling. The Lions may be tight. The Cowboys should be loose.
Florio’s pick: Cowboys 27, Lions 24.
Simms’s pick: Cowboys 37, Lions 28.
Seahawks (-7) at Falcons
The Seahawks have bigger fish to fry than the Falcons, and they can’t afford to falter now.
Florio’s pick: Seahawks 31, Falcons 17.
Simms’s pick: Seahawks 27, Falcons 17.
Steelers at Ravens (-6)
If the Steelers load up to stop Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson will have a chance to get back on track.
Florio’s pick: Ravens 18, Steelers 14.
Simms’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 14.
Bengals at Bills (-5.5)
The Bengals are a very different team with Joe Burrow back in action.
Florio’s pick: Bengals 30, Bills 27.
Simms’s pick: Bills 28, Bengals 24.
Titans at Browns (-4.5)
Shedeur Sanders wins round one against Cam Ward. Thanks in large part to Myles Garrett.
Florio’s pick: Browns 17, Titans 13.
Simms’s pick: Browns 16, Titans 9.
Colts (-1.5) at Jaguars
The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. The Colts, after losing three of four, need to change recent history now.
Florio’s pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 20.
Simms’s pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 20.
Commanders at Vikings (-2.5)
The loser is done. The winner is done, eventually.
Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Commanders 21.
Simms’s pick: Commanders 23, Vikings 20.
Dolphins (-2.5) at Jets
The Dolphins continue to do enough to give Mike McDaniel another year.
Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 20.
Simms’s pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 17.
Saints at Buccaneers (-8.5)
The Bucs can’t screw around with lesser foes.
Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Saints 20.
Simms’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 17.
Broncos (-7.5) at Raiders
The Broncos need to quit playing with their food.
Florio’s pick: Broncos 34, Raiders 17.
Simms’s pick: Broncos 20 Raiders 10.
Rams (-7.5) at Cardinals
With the Lions and Seahawks looming, the Rams can’t afford to a letdown against a lost cause.
Florio’s pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 20.
Simms’s pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 21.
Bears at Packers (-6.5)
This is the most significant late-season game between these arch-rivals in years.
Florio’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 23.
Simms’s pick: Bears 27, Packers 24.
Texans at Chiefs (-3.5)
Defense wins championships. It also takes out champions.
Florio’s pick: Texans 17, Chiefs 14.
Simms’s pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 20.
Eagles (-3) at Chargers.
The Eagles can’t afford to keep slipping, not with the Cowboys on their heels.
Florio’s pick: Eagles 21, Chargers 20.
Simms’s pick: Chargers 21, Eagles 17.
