Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles are favored to beat the Los Angeles Chargers, but our model has L.A. covering the spread. Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Week 14 of NFL action has teams in desperation mode and major matchups for playoff contenders and hopefuls alike. (Check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to see your team’s chances.) It’s time for predictions.
I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense. From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season.
This week, my model has the Ravens as 6-point favorites over the Steelers (a half-point more than BetMGM), the Packers covering against the Bears and the Chargers covering against the Eagles but losing the game.
Dec 5, 2025
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