World Cup 2026 Draw: Strongest Groups to the Weakest, According to the Opta Power Rankings
We use the Opta Power Rankings to assess the strength of each group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the draw at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. on Friday.
If your excitement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup had yet to truly take off, it is surely now bubbling to the surface after Friday’s draw confirmed the makeup of the groups.
Well, mostly. Of the 48 teams set to participate in Canada, Mexico and the United States next June and July, six countries won’t be confirmed until the final play-offs in March. So, while there may still be a hint of uncertainty, for the most part we know who’ll be meeting in the group stage.
Of course, we have to address the elephant in the room. With 48 teams taking part, the 2026 edition will be the biggest World Cup tournament ever, representing a 50% increase in the number of qualified countries. That means there’ll be plenty of debutant nations and those who’ve never been regular participants. As such, the range in ability is likely to be the broadest we’ve ever seen at a men’s World Cup.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect entertainment, drama and tension. But as with any World Cup, some groups appear a little likelier to attract neutral eyeballs than others.
To identify which groups are the strongest, we’ve used the Opta Power Rankings (a global ranking system that assigns an Opta Power Rating between zero and 100 to every international team, where zero is the worst-rated team in the world and 100 is the best) to give each group an average rating.
Without any further ado, these are the 2026 World Cup groups ranked from strongest to weakest…
Group J
Average Rating: 77.1
According to the Opta Power Rankings, Group J is statistically the strongest of the 12 pools at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Our model says this is next summer’s ‘group of death’.
Headlined by reigning champions Argentina, the four teams drawn into Group J have an average Opta Power Rating of 77.1. Lionel Scaloni’s side obviously contribute heavily to that, with their rating of 97.8 putting them second in the Opta Power Rankings, though there are two other sides ranked 31st or higher as well.
Austria’s Opta Power Rating is 75.3, making them statistically the second-strongest side in the group, followed by Algeria (72.2).
The lowest-ranked side in the group are Jordan (ranking: 58, rating: 63.1). The average ranking of the teams in Group J is 29.3, though Argentina will surely still fancy their chances of progressing unscathed.
Group I
Average Rating: 76.7
While the Opta Power Rankings may not agree, many fans will likely pinpoint Group I as the closest to a so-called ‘group of death’.
France, runners-up at Qatar 2022, will be fancied to win the group and ultimately do well thereafter, but Les Bleus – who have an Opta Power Rating of 96.8 – could find resistance.
Norway (rating: 77.6) and Senegal (rating 76.1) have the talent to trouble any team on their day and will each think they have what it takes to reach the knockout stages.
The reason why Group I comes in below Group J with respect to average team rating is the fact the fourth team in the pool will be the winner of the second intercontinental play-off. That team will either be Iraq (rating: 63.2), Bolivia (63.0) or Suriname (42.3) – none of them will be expected to do much of note, hence they bring the group’s average down slightly.
Group F
Average Rating: 76.6
The group with the best average Opta Power Ranking is actually Group F – the three confirmed teams and UEFA Path B winners have an average ranking of 27.8.
But when it comes to average ratings, they fall slightly, essentially because the best-rated team aren’t deemed as good as France or Argentina.
The Netherlands (rating: 88.7) will be favourites to top Group F, but if anyone is confident of usurping them, it’ll be Japan (81.2). Tunisia (68.3) are the lowest-rated confirmed side in this section.
But of course, this is another group that isn’t completely confirmed yet. The winners of the UEFA Path B play-offs will slot in here, and among them are teams who could cause trouble.
Ukraine (74.7), Sweden (65.4), Poland (70.5) and Albania (62.2) have an average Opta Power Rating of 68.2 – clearly, the Opta Power Rankings suggest everyone in Group F will want to avoid Ukraine.
Group H
Average Rating: 76.04
Spain top the Opta Power Rankings and are currently regarded as the Opta supercomputer’s favourites.
Blessed with an Opta Power Rating of 100, no one will have been happy to be drawn alongside them – Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde have that dubious honour.
Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay (rating: 82.6) would appear the likeliest to trouble La Roja, though their record at recent tournaments isn’t great.
Saudi Arabia (61.7) might be written off by many, but don’t forget they were the only team to beat eventual champions Argentina at the 2022 World Cup. Cape Verde (59.8) may not be fancied either, though they are only two spots below the Saudis in the Opta Power Rankings.
Group L
Average Rating: 75.9
It might be a little surprising to see Group L as low as this in these rankings, but there is a plausible explanation.
With England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama, on paper it definitely looks as though it’s among the strongest groups. However, Ghana haven’t had a great few years, and they’ve fallen to a surprisingly low 71st in the Opta Power Rankings (rating: 59.4) – that makes them the weakest team in this section.
We know Ghana can call upon some talented players, though, and generally they’ll be regarded as a bigger threat – at least in the talent stakes – than Panama (ranking: 45, rating: 68.3).
But if the group goes with expectations, England (rating: 92.6) and Croatia (83.4) – semi-final rivals in 2018 – will be battling it out for first and second in Group L.
England are currently regarded as the fourth-best team in the world, according to the Opta Power Rankings, after breezing through qualification without even conceding a goal.
England’s route to the final
Group K
Average Rating: 75.3
You’re probably thinking Portugal are the side to beat here – however, the top-rated team from Group K in the Opta Power Rankings are Colombia (ranking: 6, rating: 90.1).
Colombia came third in South American qualifying, with their 28 goals bettered only Argentina (31) in that section.
Portugal are ranked ninth (rating: 87.0), so slightly below Colombia. Either way, it’ll be a significant shock if either fail to make it out of a group that also includes Uzbekistan (ranking: 36, rating: 70.4) and the other intercontinental play-off winner – so, one of the Democratic Republic of Congo (rating: 65.0), Jamaica (rating: 53.9) or New Caledonia (42.1).
Those three have an average rating of just 53.7 – admittedly that is heavily influenced by New Caledonia, who realistically are the massive outsiders.
Group C
Average Rating: 74.0
If the draw had pulled out a higher-rated team from Pot 4 than Haiti (rating: 52.3), then Group C would likely be a bit higher up. With Brazil, Scotland and Morocco all involved, it has the potential to be tasty.
Five-time winners Brazil (rating: 90.5) will be massively backed to top the group, but Morocco (82.3) became the first African nation to reach the semi-finals in 2022, while Scotland (70.6) qualified ahead of Denmark – there’s enough quality here to keep things interesting.
Haiti will likely be happy to take a single point from this group. They are ranked 55 places lower (89) in the Opta Power Rankings than the lowest of the other three (Scotland – 34).
Group D
Average Rating: 73.2
The average rating of Group D – much like those of Mexico and Canada – is held back because co-hosts United States are one of the weaker teams from Pot 1 in the draw.
USA’s Opta Power Rating is 73.1, which actually makes them the weakest of the three confirmed teams in Group D.
Paraguay (75.4) and Australia (75.6) should see this as a massive opportunity to get out of the group, though there’s potential for tricky opposition to come out of the UEFA Path C play-offs.
Turkey (78.2), Slovakia (68.8), Romania (64.6) and Kosovo (62.7) could all put a cat among the pigeons. So, don’t be surprised if Group D ends up among the closest in the tournament.
Group G
Average Rating: 72.1
Group G isn’t exactly filled with World Cup heritage. Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand are the four members of this group, and it won’t be getting too many pulses racing before a ball is kicked.
Belgium (rating: 83.3) are always going to have a chance of making an impression at the tournament, but Iran (76.4) aren’t a million miles behind and could challenge them for top spot.
Egypt (67.7) will be looking to Mohamed Salah for inspiration, but again, New Zealand (60.9) could be in with a chance of causing a (small) upset or two, as well.
It’s far from the most exciting group, but it could produce some tight battles.
Group A
Average Rating: 71.3
With no team from the world’s top 20 in it, Group A doesn’t look as strong as many of the other groups, but that may also mean it is one of the most open.
Hosts Mexico went into this group from Pot 1, and their Opta Power Rating of 77.2 leaves the door wide open for one of the other three participants to challenge for the group-winners spot (the winner of this group will play the winner of England’s group in the round of 16, by the way).
South Korea are the next strongest, rated at 74.6, and South Africa are also in there, with a rating of 64.8. The group will be completed by a UEFA play-off winner: one of Czech Republic (rating: 70.0), Denmark (78.9), Republic of Ireland (65.9) or North Macedonia (59.0) will be in Group A. Each of them would fancy their chances of making it into the knockouts.
Group E
Average Rating: 70.7
At eighth and 12th in the world, respectively, Germany and Ecuador are the clear frontrunners in Group E. They will be the favourites to run away with things at the top of an otherwise weak group according to the Opta Power Rankings model.
This foursome is completed by Ivory Coast, who are ranked 48th in the world, and lowly Curaçao who, at 117th in the world, are the worst team at the tournament. Their Power Rating of 45.7 puts them between Sierra Leone and Trinidad & Tobago in our global rankings.
Making their debut at the World Cup, they may well be there just to make up the numbers.
Group B
Average Rating: 69.9
The lowest-quality group at the World Cup next summer is unsurprisingly the one that contains the worst of the Pot 1 teams: co-hosts Canada.
Ranked 32nd in the world with an Opta Power Rating of 71.7, just behind Algeria and just ahead of Serbia, who failed to qualify for the tournament, Canada were easily the weakest team in the first pot. Now led by former Leeds manager Jesse Marsch, they’ll be out to prove they’re better many think on home soil in the summer.
Switzerland, ranked 15th in the world according to the Power Rankings, are the strongest team in the group, and are better than many other Pot 2 teams, but their rating of 81.9 doesn’t drag the group up enough.
Meanwhile, Qatar bring the average down significantly with their rating of 59.2.
This group may not actually end up quite as weak-looking in reality, because they will be joined by the winner of the UEFA Path A play-off, and that could be Italy, who are the 17th-best team in the world according to our system. That said, that play-off could also be won by Wales (42nd), Northern Ireland (68th) or Bosnia and Herzegovina (75th), none of whom would do much for the group’s average.
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