Fantasy football best and worst Week 14 matchups: Is Justin Jefferson startable? – The Athletic

Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.

My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass-blocking/pass-rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.

Keep in mind these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a strong yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.

Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins, which this article will cover. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail those with a total of 20 or lower.

Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 13. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks.

Metrics are via TruMedia/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted.

Most favorable Week 14 matchups

Quarterback

J.J. McCarthy, MIN (vs. WSH)

The Commanders’ defense held up much better last week, but Washington still has pass-defense liabilities. Starting cornerbacks Mike Sainristil and Jonathan Jones each have subpar coverage metrics. McCarthy can’t be viewed as more than a QB2 or Superflex option, yet this matchup says he will be a solid play in either of those scoring environments.

Running backs

Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, MIN (vs. WSH)

Washington may have the worst rush defense in the league right now. The Commanders rank dead last in planned rush FPPG since Week 10. They are also next to last in yards per carry (YPC) allowed on those plays (5.6). Jones will be a go-to starter if he plays. If Jones misses this game due to injury, be sure to get Mason into starting lineups.

Travis Etienne, JAX (vs. IND)

Etienne’s four-game streak with 15+ points ended with last week’s 5.1-point dud. But he should bounce back against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in planned rush FPPG over the past four weeks.

Wide receivers

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, MIN (vs. WSH)

Justin Jefferson has become so frustrated with the state of Minnesota’s offense that he left the Vikings locker room without answering questions after Sunday’s loss at Seattle. His fantasy managers are equally frustrated after his 2.4-point performance.

That frustration could be short-lived. As noted above, Washington’s starting cornerbacks have terrible coverage metrics. The Commanders also rate next to last in vertical YPA allowed since Week 10. Get Jefferson back into starting lineups. Consider starting Addison in deeper leagues.

Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, GB (vs. CHI):

The Packers’ wide receiver corps is often a headache for fantasy managers. This matchup is the proverbial aspirin for that ailment. Bears cornerbacks Nahshon Wright and Jaylon Johnson both have less-than-stellar coverage metrics. Consider Doubs and Watson strong flex candidates. Dontayvion Wicks, who posted 28 fantasy points last week, could also have a solid week.

Tight ends

Dalton Kincaid, BUF (vs. CIN)

Kincaid has missed the past three weeks due to injury, but he has an incredibly favorable matchup if he can return to the field this week. The Bengals have allowed a league-worst 23 FPPG and 11.4 YPA on targets to tight ends since Week 10. If Kincaid is out, consider Dawson Knox a viable upside play.

Juwan Johnson, NO (at TB)

Johnson earned a spot in the top 10 of my rest of season tight end rankings in part due to an above-average matchup points total. That plus-matchup trend starts this week versus Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers rank 22nd in TE FPPG over the past four weeks. Johnson should once again be a viable low-end TE1 this week.

Least favorable Week 14 matchups

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, CHI (vs. NO)

It’s been a fantasy scoring roller coaster for Williams the past seven weeks. He’s posted fewer than 12 points on four occasions yet racked up 21+ points three times. The Saints’ defense trends Williams toward the former. New Orleans has allowed only 3.4 FPPG on vertical passes over the past four weeks.

Running backs

Kareem Hunt, KC (vs. HOU)

Last week’s 9-point game for Hunt reminded fantasy managers that he does have a low floor when things don’t go well. Facing a Houston defense that ranks fifth in FPPG on planned rushes since Week 10 is a recipe for things not going well for the Chiefs’ ground game this week. Consider other flex options in place of Hunt.

Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, PIT (at BAL)

The Steelers’ offense was so bad last week that only one Pittsburgh player scored more than 6.5 points. Warren was that player, yet he only managed to post 12.4 points. Baltimore has given up only 9.4 FPPG on planned rushes since Week 10. Try to find higher upside plays to replace Warren. Be sure Gainwell is on the bench.

Woody Marks, HOU (at KC)

Marks has scored fewer than 8 points in four of his past five games. A matchup against a Chiefs defense that is eighth in planned rush FPPG since Week 10 means Marks is a bench candidate this week.

Wide receivers

Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, CHI (at GB)

Odunze and Moore have both posted strong fantasy points totals at times this year. But Odunze has been a bust in six of his past eight starts, and Moore has posted fewer than 5 points in three of his past four games. The Packers have four secondary players with a 6.1 or lower FPPG allowed mark since Week 10. I won’t make a blanket recommendation to bench Moore and Odunze, but I’m not entirely opposed to it.

Tight ends

Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, CHI (at GB)

Split tight end target situations like the one that Chicago currently has with Kmet and Loveland should usually be avoided in fantasy football. Against a Green Bay defense that is second in TE FPPG and third in TE YPA allowed since Week 10, Kmet and Loveland should be on fantasy benches.

Evan Engram, DEN (at LV)

Engram will be on fantasy radars after posting a season-high 13.9 points against Washington last week, but the Raiders have only allowed 101 yards to tight ends since Week 10. Don’t get caught up in Engram’s Week 13 performance. He’s a precarious start this week. I wouldn’t recommend him.