Today we have a loaded NFL Week 14 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The Dolphins (5-7) have won three games in a row and just held off the Saints 21-17 but failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Jets (3-9) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 27-24 win over the Falcons, winning outright as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the surging Dolphins. However, despite receiving 63% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Miami fall from -3 to -2.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line and make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Dolphins to begin with? Because respected wiseguy action has jumped on the Jets plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor.
New York has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Divisional dogs getting 3-points or less are 10-8 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season and 99-80 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2020.
Tyrod Taylor is 3-0 ATS this season and 36-21 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI in his career, including 24-12 ATS (67%) with a 26% ROI as a dog.
The Jets have additional betting system value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
The Dolphins are 4-3 at home this season but just 1-4 on the road. Miami is also in a fade “weather” spot as a warm southern team going north in December. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 when the temperature is 46 degrees or less. The forecast calls for 40 degree temperatures today at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets could also be worth a look in a wiseguy Wong Teaser. By taking New York up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy pros can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
The Colts (8-4) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Texans 20-16, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (8-4) have won three straight and just brushed aside the Titans 25-3, easily covering as 6-point road favorites.
This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public still believes in the Colts and 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Indianapolis.
However, despite receiving a slight majority of tickets we’ve seen the Colts fall from -3 to -1.5. The movement toward Jacksonville has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Indianapolis. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Jaguars at home.
At Circa, the Jaguars are taking in 84% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of heavy pro action backing the home dog out in Vegas.
Jacksonville has betting system value as a divisional dog and is also in a prime Wong Teaser position (+1.5 to +7.5).
We’ve also seen a heavy dose of smart money play the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45.5, with some shops inching down to 45 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 43% of bets but 72% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Outdoor divisional unders are 24-15 (62%) with an 18% ROI this season and 322-267 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2017.
The Bengals (4-8) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 32-14 win over the Ravens, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bills (8-4) just took down the Steelers 26-7, easily covering as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Bengals plus the points, dropping Cincinnati from +6.5 to +6. Some shops even touched down to +5.5 earlier in the week. Essentially, all movement and liability has been in favor of the Bengals plus the points.
At Circa, the Bengals are receiving 50% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating public indecision but also respected smart money out in Vegas.
Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 45-34 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this year. If the dog is getting 6-points or more, they improve to 26-16 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Joe Burrow is 20-11 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI as a dog in his career.
The Bengals enjoy a 3-day rest advantage, having last played on Thanksgiving (Thursday) while the Bills last played on Sunday.
Pros also seem to be expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been bet up from 51.5 to 54.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 63% of bets and 65% of dollars.
The forecast calls for low 30s with 10 MPH winds and snow showers.
