What happens if they’re tied?
This is where it gets tricky, and math is involved at a certain point.
Say the Panthers and Bucs split their games, and both finish 9-8 (or, let’s get weird, it is the NFC South, 8-9).
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head games, putting a huge burden on Weeks 16 and 18.
The second tiebreaker is division record, and right now, both are sitting at 2-1 with three to play. That also means the Panthers can’t overlook the Saints, and the Bucs can’t overlook the Falcons.
If those stay tied, that’s where the Bucs’ edge comes in.
The third tiebreaker is common opponents, and right now, Tampa Bay has a one-game advantage there.
The NFC South played the entire NFC West and the AFC East this year. The Panthers are 3-4 in those games with the Seahawks left to play. The Bucs are 4-3 with the aforementioned Dolphins game left.
That Week 2 loss to the Cardinals was tough for the Panthers, since the Bucs beat them, and the same goes for the Week 12 loss to the 49ers (another Bucs victim this year). Of course, the Panthers beat the Rams, and the Bucs didn’t, so it’s just a one-game gap. Regardless of what happens in the division games, if the Panthers beat the Seahawks and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, you’re looking at going another layer down the tiebreaker rabbit hole.
