The stage is set for a memorable AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills this Sunday. In one corner, you have the upstart Patriots trying to regain the division crown for the first time in six years. On the other, you have the five-time defending champion trying to fight their way back into title contention.
As far as the stakes are concerned, this is a marquee matchup in the NFL this weekend. Who will emerge victoriously, though? The oddsmakers believe it will be Buffalo, given the team’s status as 1.5-point road favorites for Week 15.
Looking at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams, however, we are not quite sure about that projection.
Patriots pass offense vs. Bills pass defense: Drake Maye’s MVP case might rest on his ability to slay the dragon that has sat atop AFC East castle for the last half-decade. In our estimation, he has what it takes to do just that. The second-year quarterback is leading one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL, and should be able to find success against a unit that has been solid — Buffalo is ranked 10th in the NFL with an EPA per dropback of -0.013 — but not without its flaws. If the Patriots can avoid the turnovers that doomed Cincinnati last week and provide workable pockets against the likes of Joey Bosa, Greg Rousseau and company, Maye should be able to find some favorable 1-on-1s at the second and third levels of the defense. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Bills pass offense: This is as good a matchup as you will get, and a clear strength vs. strength battle between one of the top pass defenses in football and one of the best aerial attacks led by an MVP-level quarterback. Obviously, Josh Allen is capable of putting pressure on any defense in football — the Patriots’ being no exception, as they have found out multiple times over the years. And yet, heading into this game, we are giving New England a slight edge for two reasons: 1.) They will be playing in front of what projects to be a raucous Gillette Stadium crowd; 2.) Their coverage personnel has an advantage over Buffalo’s skill position group. Allen is the X-factor, of course, but the Patriots are well-equipped to make life difficult for him. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Bills run defense: On the year, Buffalo’s defense is ranked 31st in the NFL in EPA per run and 29th in yards per carry. Those number are bad, but also slightly misleading: recently, the Bills have managed to show some improvement that might be enough to seriously challenge the Patriots on the ground. Over the last month, for example, their defense has out-performed New England’s offense when it comes to the ground game (0.004 EPA/run vs. -0.197 EPA/run). It goes without saying that no two games are alike, and that there are certain areas that favor the home team, but recent performance still points toward the Bills possibly getting the better of their opponent as far as running the ball is concerned. | Edge: Bills
Patriots run defense vs. Bills rushing offense: The “getting the better” part of the assessment above also is true on the other side of the ball. Frankly, slowing down Buffalo’s rushing attack will be a major task for a run defense that started the year well but has since struggled to maintain its early-season momentum. Sure, getting Khyiris Tonga back to provide some size along the interior defensive line will help, but Milton Williams will still be absence and edge-setting a possible issue. James Cook and his dual-threat quarterback are both more than capable of exploiting those weaknesses, and by extension hurting New England via the ground and the play-action games. | Edge: Bills
As far as place kicking and punting is concerned, the Patriots and Bills are fairly evenly matched, with the home team holding a minor advantage. The same is true for both teams’ abilities to return kickoffs. The main difference in favor of New England is the punt return game: Marcus Jones is back on his All-Pro form and besides returning two punts for touchdowns also averaging 18.8 yards per runback this season. For comparison, the Bills as a team are at 5.3 yards in that particular category. Their coverage unit has not been bad, and in fact slightly better than the Patriots’ statistically, but Jones has the potential to make a game-changing impact in what projects to be a tightly-contested affair. | Edge: Patriots
Mike Vrabel has his team firing on all cylinders this season, and the coaching definitely plays a factor in it. With him leading the way, New England has shown the ability to compete on a week-to-week basis and against various types of opponents. And yes, the schedule has been favorable, but the Patriots have not had many if any serious slip-ups during their ongoing 10-game win streak. Obviously, Buffalo’s staff led by veteran head coach Sean McDermott has its qualities as well — Bills fans may have been bearish on him in the past but he is a mighty fine coach — but we are giving the advantage to Vrabel and company with an extra week to prepare. | Edge: Patriots
Looking at our head-to-head breakdown, the Patriots are projected to have an edge in four of the six categories. However, that total is not quite as straight-forward as it might seem. Most of the battles are an effective coin-flip, and could look different if just one or two factors change on Sunday afternoon. The only really clear battle, from our current estimation, is Buffalo’s running game against New England’s run defense; this one could very well end up being a key to victory when all is said and done. On the whole, however, we are in for a game that should end up justifying the fanfare leading up to it.
