The Detroit Lions (8-5) and Los Angeles Rams (10-3) will square off in a Week 15 matchup at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California.
“Very good opponent, playing at a very high level,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week. “They’ve got players at every level. Good coaching, productive team. This’ll be a big challenge on the road at their place, but once again, looking forward to this. This is why you’re in it.”
If the Lions want to get back to their winning ways, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 15 preview: Breaking down Rams’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Jumbo + Gibbs YB4C
When two top-five scoring offenses square off, the one that controls the ground game typically has an advantage. Entering Week 15, the Lions boast the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, producing on average 30.1 points per game, while the Rams are just behind, registering 29.2 points per game (fourth in the NFL) on average.
Much has been made of the Rams deploying a ton of 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends, and 1 wide receiver) in order to set up advantageous matchups, but the Lions have leaned into their own version of unique personnel usage, deploying jumbo sets (identified as 11*: 1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR, and a 6th offensive lineman*).
Here’s an excerpt from Next Gen Stats discussing the Lions’ use of Jumbo (emphasis is the author’s):
The Lions have used jumbo personnel (6+ OL) at the 7th-highest rate this season (9.0%), despite recording their first jumbo snap of the season in Week 6 against the Chiefs. They have averaged 7.9 yards per play across their 72 snaps using jumbo personnel, the 4th-most by any offense to have used jumbo personnel at least 10 times in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). This trend has grown even stronger over the past three weeks, as they have used jumbo personnel on over 20% of their snaps in each game since Week 12. This includes Week 14 against the Cowboys when they used jumbo personnel on a season-high 36.8% of snaps, their 3rd-highest rate in a game under Dan Campbell dating back to 2021, including the playoffs.
The Lions’ use of jumbo began as a way to supplement injuries at the tight end position, but their success in forcing teams into unusual and uncomfortable defenses has benefited Detroit. So, how unusual is the heavy use of jumbo? Last week, the Lions used jumbo 23 times against the Cowboys, while the Rams have faced jumbo personnel only 14 times all season. As a result, the Rams have allowed 5.9 yards per play against jumbo (NFL average is 4.5 yards per play, per Next Gen Stats), while the Lions are averaging 7.9 yards per play in jumbo sets.
With these bigger sets, the Lions have seen their push up front improve. Currently, the Lions are generating the highest rate of yards before contact in the NFL (1.95 YB4C on average runs), and when Jahmyr Gibbs is on the field, that number increases to a league-leading 2.6 YB4C.
Here’s more from Next Gen Stats:
Jahmyr Gibbs has gained 482 rushing yards before contact this season, most in the NFL. He has been just as impressive on a per-carry basis, averaging 2.6 rushing yards before contact per carry, the most among 57 running backs with at least 50 carries. His efficiency is heavily weighted by two long runs in which he was never contacted, including a game-winning 69-yard touchdown in Week 12 against the Giants and a 78-yard touchdown in Week 7 against the Buccaneers. However, even if those two runs were not accounted for in his rushing totals, Gibbs would still lead that same group of backs with an average of 1.8 rushing yards before contact per carry.
Key 2: Find holes in zone + YAC
The Rams deploy a defensive scheme that is heavily based on zone coverage (80+% of the time). They don’t often blitz (20.8%, 29th in NFL) and prefer to drop seven into coverage, relying on their front four to get pressure. To counter this approach, the Lions will need to find quick holes in the Rams’ zone and rely on their skill players to generate yards after the catch (YAC). Fortunately for Detroit, this stylistically fits what they like to do, as they currently lead the NFL in YAC (1,981 yards after the catch), while the Rams defense is only average at defending YAC (1378 allowed, 13th).
Here’s more from Next Gen Stats:
Jared Goff has gained 59.4% of his passing yards after the catch this season, his highest rate in a season with Lions and the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, trailing only Aaron Rodgers (69.6%). He has averaged 6.6 air yards per attempt, a mark identical to his previous low in a season with the Lions set in 2021. Additionally, the Lions’ receivers have averaged 6.8 yards after the catch per reception, their most in a season with Goff at the helm and the 2nd-most in the NFL, trailing only the Steelers (7.3).
The Rams prefer to deploy lighter boxes and nickel sets on standard downs, and will even shift to dime sets on third- and fourth-down passing situations (over 90+% of the time). In these scenarios, the Lions will need to rely on their skill players to beat their coverages and produce YAC to keep the chains moving. This could also be a scenario where the Lions deploy jumbo sets to try to force the Rams out of their comfort zone.
The key to any of this working will lie with the offensive line. If the Rams can get pressure with just four rushers, the Lions’ skill players will be fighting an uphill battle with YAC, fighting through a crowded secondary. However, the Lions’ offensive line can hold up; quarterback Jared Goff has a penchant for dinking-and-dunking his way through defenses on his way to the end zone.
Key 3: Score in the red zone
In what could end up being a high-scoring contest, the Lions can’t settle for field goals and need to find the end zone when they’re in striking distance. On the season, the Lions score a touchdown on 66.67% of their red zone opportunities, and they’ll need to keep that pace—or maybe even improve—against Los Angeles. That will be a tough task, as the Rams’ defense has been stingy in the red zone this season, allowing teams to score on just 42.5% of their opportunities, the second-best mark in the NFL.
This is a true strength-on-strength matchup in this game, and the winner of these battles will have the best chance to win the game.
One of the most important keys to victory for the Lions’ defense will be to generate pressure on Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. As the leading MVP candidate, Stafford is, unsurprisingly, among the best in most quarterback statistical categories. However, if there is one flaw in his armor, it’s how he responds to pressure. On an average drop back, Stafford’s EPA is 0.13, but when pressured, his EPA plummets to -0.44, 35th in the NFL amongst qualifying quarterbacks.
Now, this is much easier said than done, as the Rams’ offensive line is playing at a high level right now and are top three in pressures allowed (119, third), pressure rate (26.3%, second), sacks (17, second), and sack rate (3.8%, second). But the Lions took the “run-defense” leash off their pass rush last game, and the results were immediate and noticeable: five sacks (9.3% sack rate) and 20 pressures (37% pressure rate) against the Cowboys.
The Lions defense likes to blitz (31.2% on the season, ninth most), and the Rams tend to be blitzed at a high rate (32.2%, 11th most), but Detroit will need to be creative and strategic in how they bring extra pressure, as Stafford is a savvy veteran who has thrived against the blitz this season.
“Stafford has thrown 25 touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz this season, including 20 touchdowns across 43 passes inside the red zone,” according to Next Gen Stats.
That means if the Lions want to continue to utilize the blitz, they’ll need to deploy it unpredictably. Some of the ways we’ve seen the Lions do this in recent weeks include bringing extra heat on second down instead of the traditional third, while also threatening with middle pressure, then bringing a defensive back off the edge.
The Rams’ offense doesn’t have a lot of flaws, and they can beat you in a lot of ways. In the passing game, Stafford will take shots at every level of the field, and their rushing attack has thrived in yards after contact, producing 3.56 yards after contact per play, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
If there is a weakness in the offense, it’s that they are below average in creating yards after the catch in the passing game (21st in YAC), and they don’t get significant initial push in the running game (21st in yards before contact, just 1.17 YB4C).
This creates an opportunity for the Lions’ defense to limit the Rams’ offensive production, if they can consistently make their tackles. Fortunately for the Lions, they’re one of the best tackling teams in the NFL. Here’s more from Next Gen Stats:
The Lions’ defense has recorded a 9.5% missed tackle rate this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL, higher than only the Packers (8.7%). They have only allowed 413 additional yards due to their missed tackles, also the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, more than only the Patriots (362). They have allowed more than 50 yards due to missed tackles in just two games this season, including their Week 14 matchup with the Cowboys when they allowed 65 such yards, a season high.
By limiting yards after the catch in the passing game and stopping the rushing attack before if can get downhill and produce yards after contact, the Lions can put the Rams behind the sticks and into difficult down and distances. Which brings us to our next key to victory…
Key 6: Get off the field on 3rd down
The Rams offense is highly efficient, but they have struggled on third down this season, converting just 38.71% of their opportunities (17th in the NFL). This matches up closely with the Lions’ defense, which allows teams to convert third downs 37.58% of the time (12th best).
Possessions should be incredibly valuable in this game, and holding the Rams to field goals or putting them in punting situations will go a long way in helping them control the game.
Key 7: Win the turnover battle
Pressuring Stafford, making your tackles, and getting off the field on third down will all be important for the Lions’ defense in this game. However, turnovers could be the catalyst in determining a winner.
Over the course of the season, the Rams are +0.8 turnovers per game, third best in the NFL. Of the 10 games the Rams have won this season, they’ve won the turnover battle in eight of them, while in their three losses, they’ve lost the turnover battle in two: Eagles (even), 49ers (-2), and Panthers (-3).
Here’s Next Gen Stats with more on the Rams turnover production:
The Rams defense has generated a league-high 10 turnovers forced by pressure as a team this season, the most in the NFL. Seven different Rams defenders have generated at least one pressure that led to a turnover, including Jared Verse and Byron Young, who have generated four apiece.
The Lions aren’t too far behind them, earning a +0.6 turnover differential per game (sixth), while also winning every game in which they win the turnover battle (five of eight wins) and losing every game in which they surrender more turnovers (two of five).
Here’s Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard discussing the turnover battle this week:
“I think turnovers come down, for the most part, it’s will and want to, and violently and aggressively attacking the football. You look around the league right now, the thing that’s up ticked in the last two years when you talk about turnovers. The interceptions, you know I got it. The sack fumbles, got it. But it’s the punch attempts on the football that you’re seeing.
“I want to credit their defense, too. I’m still a fan of football, so I do watch some of these games. We’ve got to combat not only what they do offensively as protecting the ball, but they do a pretty good job defensively as far as generating takeaways. They have a Jack Campbell of their own right over there that punches at the ball a lot in their middle linebacker (Rams LB Nate Landman). So, just understanding, we’re not just combatting their offense but also the way their defense plays and try to generate takeaways.”
