EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Just imagine how poetic it would be.
The Los Angeles Chargers are celebrating their 10th win of the season on the field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs are walking into the tunnel with heads down, their reign on this rivalry finally over.
This is a moment the Chargers dreamed of when they hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach almost two years ago, and they have a chance to make it happen Sunday.
The Chiefs enter this game at 6-7. They are under .500 through 13 games for the first time since 2012, the year before coach Andy Reid took over. With a loss to the Chargers on Sunday, the Chiefs’ playoff odds would drop to under 1 percent, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. Entering this game, the Chiefs have about a 12 percent chance of making the postseason. They have won the AFC West for nine straight years. They have not missed the playoffs since 2014, but could be eliminated as early as Sunday if they lose and several other results go against them.
With a win, the Chargers would improve their playoff odds to about 94 percent. They would improve to 5-0 in the division, with a clean sweep of the Chiefs. They would also keep themselves within striking distance of the division title. The Denver Broncos, winners of 10 straight, are 11-2 and host the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) this weekend. The Chargers (9-4) have not won the AFC West since 2009.
“We desperate. They desperate,” safety Derwin James said of the Chiefs this week. “So let’s go out there and play.”
The opportunity is there for the taking. The Chargers can end the Chiefs’ season. After all the heartbreak and gut punches in the recent history of this rivalry, the Chargers could deliver a final, decisive blow.
Quarterback Justin Herbert lost to the Chiefs in his debut start in 2020. That was the Chargers’ first game at SoFi Stadium, with no fans in the stands due to COVID. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes scrambled for a first down on third-and-20 during a tying field-goal drive late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs won in overtime.
There was the overtime loss in 2021, when tight end Travis Kelce sprinted 30 yards untouched through the Chargers’ defense for a winning touchdown.
There was the loss in 2022, when Kelce scored a go-ahead touchdown with 31 seconds remaining, breaking an attempted tackle from James in the red zone.
There was the debacle in Kansas City in 2023, when the Chargers allowed Kelce to catch 12 of his 13 targets for 179 yards.
Even last season, in Harbaugh’s first with L.A., the Chiefs eked out a 19-17 win on a field goal from the backup kicker that doinked off the upright and in as time expired.
All these devastating memories would make a win on Sunday sweeter.
The Chiefs have constantly delivered heartbreak for Derwin James and the Chargers. (David Eulitt / Getty Images)
They are also proof of an intimate understanding for the Chargers: The Chiefs never go down quietly, and it will take everything to put them away — within a game, or within a season.
“Everybody is fighting for their playoff lives, fighting for their football lives,” Harbaugh said, “and that’s what it’s going to be.”
A desperate Chiefs team will be a dangerous Chiefs team.
As Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said this week, “They still have all the speed, they still have Travis Kelce, they still have Patrick Mahomes, the most valuable player almost year in and year out, and Andy Reid, a top play caller, one of the top play callers in the history of the game.”
The Chiefs’ offense ranks seventh in EPA per play this season, according to TruMedia.
Defensively, the Chiefs are 12th in EPA per play. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is coming off a throwback performance in Week 14 against the Houston Texans, when he racked up a season-high eight pressures.
“They’re still a very, very good football team, and we have a ton of respect for them,” Herbert said.
The Chiefs were 12-0 in one-score games last season. That streak ended in Week 1 in Brazil, when the Chargers opened the season with a 27-21 win. The Chiefs are 1-6 in one-score games this season.
“They’re capable of winning out,” Minter said of the Chiefs, who have reached the last three Super Bowls. “They can get hot at any second.”
The Chargers are firmly aware of the desperation, though Minter said that fact has been more “unspoken” this week in the building.
“It’s more about us and how we play,” Minter said, “knowing that, hey, maybe they try some things to spark it, maybe they try to hit some big plays early, all the type of stuff that we know they are capable of.”
The moment is here.
Mahomes, Reid, Kelce and Jones have sucked the life out of the Chargers so many times.
Can they return the favor and end the Chiefs’ season?
Just imagine.
“Looking forward to the challenge,” edge rusher Khalil Mack said. “Not as much so the feeling of beating them, but just knowing what beating them can do for us.”
