Scimia’s prediction: Spearheaded by the Musketeers’ offense, expect a high-scoring affair in tonight’s showdown at Cintas Center.
Dec 12, 2025 • 14:30 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Xavier Musketeers forward Tre Carroll (12).
The Xavier Musketeers will try to win a fifth straight game when they host the Missouri State Bears tonight.
2025 has seen the Musketeers hitting the Over with regularity, and I’m backing that trend to continue in my Missouri State vs. Xavier predictions.
Read more in my free college basketball picks for Friday, December 12.
Missouri State vs Xavier prediction
Missouri State vs Xavier best bet: Over 149.5 (-110)
Xavier’s early-season performance has been a bit up and down for bettors, with the team going a flat 5-5 against the spread so far this year.
However, the Musketeers have been consistent in one regard: they play fast, high-scoring basketball, regularly going beyond the total even against teams with relatively little offensive talent.
The raw numbers point this out immediately, with Xavier hitting the Over in five of its last six games. The Musketeers have played to a total of at least 150 points in each of their last six games and seven of their last eight. Their overall average total comes in at 151.6 ppg for the season.
Meanwhile, we’ve seen Missouri State struggle to contain capable offenses. Tulsa put up 98 against the Bears, while Arkansas State scored 86 against them last month.
Xavier ranks somewhere between those teams in terms of offensive talent and should post a big number tonight, helping push this game Over once again for the Musketeers.
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Missouri State vs Xavier same-game parlay
Over 149.5
Xavier -18.5
Tre Carroll Over 16.5 points
Along with the Over, I also like Xavier to cover the large spread, as Missouri State has struggled against similar teams, including a 24-point loss to Tulsa last weekend.
In a high-scoring game, Tre Carroll should easily surpass his points prop, having scored 17+ in five of his last six games.
Our beyond the arc SGP: Three Musketeers
Over 149.5
Xavier -18.5
Tre Carroll Over 16.5 points
Jovan Milicevic Over 11.5 points
Filip Borovicanin Over 3.5 assists
Jovan Milicevic is averaging 12.5 ppg on the year, finishing with 12+ in six of his last seven games.
Filip Borovicanin should get plenty of opportunities to dish the ball to his teammates tonight, and has totaled at least four assists in five of his last six outings.
Missouri State vs Xavier odds
- Spread: Missouri State +16.5 (-110) | Xavier -16.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Missouri State +1250 | Xavier -2500
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) | Under 147 (-110)
Missouri State vs Xavier betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1-1 in Xavier’s last eight games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri State vs. Xavier.
How to watch Missouri State vs Xavier
Location
Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
Date
Friday, December 12, 2025
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
truTV
Missouri State vs Xavier key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.
His betting strategy focuses more on finding line value based on deviations from the market rather than traditional handicapping, primarily shopping between DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics in his home state of Connecticut, though he’s not afraid to do deep game analysis to find profitable bets at any book.
Outside of gambling, Ed is an avid curler who competes in mixed doubles on the World Curling Tour and runs a popular curling YouTube channel, Chess on Ice. That experience has come in handy during the Olympics, when he has proven to be a successful curling bettor as well.
Ed’s advice to new bettors is to always open multiple sportsbook accounts and check the odds at each before placing any bet. Successful sports betting is about consistently beating the closing line value, which requires finding spots where one book is offering odds far better than the rest of the market and jumping on those opportunities.
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