The Dolphins’ slim playoff hopes took another hit on Sunday when all four of the 1 p.m. games that impacted Miami’s chances all produced unfavorable results.
But the Seahawks’ 18-16 win against the Colts kept alive two of three improbable playoff scenarios for Miami.
Wins by Buffalo (against New England) and Houston (against Arizona) left the Dolphins needing to win on Monday in Pittsburgh to keep alive their remote playoff hopes.
The Dolphins would be officially eliminated with a loss on Monday night at the Steelers (8:15 p.m., ESPN, CBS-4). In fact, any further losses would eliminate Miami.
Even if the Dolphins win out (at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, at New England), they would need multiple upsets involving other teams to make the playoffs.
Miami’s three improbable playoff paths:
Scenario one
▪ Miami (6-7) wins out to finish 10-7.
▪ The No. 7 Texans (who hold the final playoff spot at 9-5) lose their three remaining games (home to Las Vegas, at the Chargers, home against the Colts) to finish 9-8. Houston already has won a two-team tiebreaker with Miami by virtue of a superior conference record.
▪ The No. 8 Colts (8-6) lose to San Francisco and Jacksonville but win at Houston to finish 9-8. Miami would lose a two-team tiebreaker to the Colts by virtue of their opening day loss to Indianapolis.
▪ The No. 9 Ravens (7-7) lose one of their remaining three games (New England, at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh). Baltimore would win a tiebreaker with Miami because of the Ravens’ Oct. 30 win at Hard Rock Stadium.
Scenario two
▪ Miami wins out to finish 10-7.
▪ The Bills (10-4) lose out (at Cleveland, home to Philadelphia and home to the Jets) to finish 10-7. Miami would win a tiebreaker with Buffalo by having a better division record in this scenario.
▪ The No. 8 Colts lose two of their remaining three games.
Scenario three
▪ Miami (6-7) wins out to finish 10-7.
▪ The No. 7 Texans (9-5) lose their next two games (home to Las Vegas, at the Chargers) and No. 8 Colts (8-6) lose one of their next two games (49ers and Jaguars at home), and the Colts and Texans then tie at their finale in Houston.
▪ The No. 9 Ravens (7-7) lose at least once.
The Chargers’ win in Kansas City on Sunday not only eliminated the defending AFC champion Chiefs from playoff contention, but eliminated what seemed like Miami’s most realistic – albeit unlikely – playoff path.
Miami could have overtaken the Chargers for a playoff spot if the Dolphins had won out, if the Chargers had lost out, combined with multiple losses by the Colts and a loss by the Ravens and Chiefs.
The Chargers still have a tough remaining schedule: at Dallas, Houston and at Denver. But the 10-4 Chargers would win a tiebreaker with Miami by virtue of their win against the Dolphins, meaning Miami can no longer overtake Los Angeles.
This story was originally published December 14, 2025 at 5:36 PM.
Barry Jackson
Miami Herald
Barry Jackson has written for the Miami Herald since 1986 and has written the Florida Sports Buzz column since 2002.
