Vladimir Putin may have a reputation among some as a ruthless autocrat, a master manipulator of the international scene. But one thing Russia’s president does not have is a poker face.
The late US Senator John McCain used to joke that when he looked into Putin’s eyes, he saw three things, “a K and a G and a B”, a reference to his past life as a Soviet intelligence officer.
I thought of this as I watched footage of Russia’s leader sitting opposite American envoys in the Kremlin. He could not hide his emotions; he exuded an air of supreme confidence.
For President Putin reckons the diplomatic tide has turned in his favour, with an improved relationship with America and gains on the battlefield.
Some analysts say Putin has no incentive to retreat from his demands: that Ukraine gives up the last 20% of Donetsk it still controls; that all occupied territory is recognised internationally as Russian; that Ukraine’s army is curtailed to a point of impotence; and Nato membership is ruled out forever.
As things stand, there are a few possible scenarios. The first is that US President Donald Trump may try to force Ukraine into a ceasefire on terms unwelcome to its people, one that cedes territory and lacks sufficient security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression.
If Ukraine demurs or Russia vetoes, President Trump has hinted he could wash his hands of the war; last week, he said “sometimes you have to let people fight it out”.
