Stocks slip, what the CPI report means for BoC rate moves, and WSP Global spends US$3.3 billion on U.S. power firm

12/15/25 17:32

Ford retreats from EVs, takes US$19.5 billion charge

– Reuters

Ford Motor (F-N) said on Monday it will take a US$19.5 billion writedown and is killing several electric-vehicle models, in the most dramatic example yet of the auto industry’s retreat from battery-powered models in response to the Trump administration’s policies and weakening EV demand.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based company said it will replace the fully electric F-150 Lightning with a new extended-range electric model that uses a gas-powered engine to recharge the battery. The company is also scrapping a next-generation electric truck, codenamed the T3, as well as planned electric commercial vans.

The car company will spread out the writedown, taken primarily in the fourth quarter and continuing through next year and into 2027, the company said.

The automaker also raised its 2025 guidance for adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, to about $7 billion, up from a previous range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion.

Ford shares rose about 1% in after-hours trading.

12/15/25 16:54

WSP Global to acquire TRC Companies in US$3.3 billion deal

– Reuters, Globe staff

Services firm WSP Global (WSP-T) said in the post market on Monday it will acquire U.S. power and energy firm TRC Companies in a US$3.3 billion all-cash deal.

WSP Global said the proposed acquisition will position it as the largest engineering and design firm in the U.S., growing its power and energy offering.

The announcement sets up WSP as a key mover when stock markets in Toronto reopen on Tuesday.

As part of the deal, a US$850 million equity offering is planned composed of US$732 million bought deal and approximately US$118 million concurrent private placement with La Caisse.

12/15/25 16:49

TSX ends lower for second day as oil prices fall

– Reuters

Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Monday as a drop in oil prices weighed on energy shares and despite domestic inflation data that tempered expectations that the Bank of Canada would hike interest rates next year.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended down 43.95 points, or 0.1%, at 31,843.44, slightly extending its pullback from a record closing high on Thursday.

Canada’s annual inflation rate was 2.2% in November, unchanged from the previous month and below expectations for a 2.3% rate. Investors were pricing in about 23 basis points of tightening from the Bank of Canada next year, down from 35 basis points last Wednesday when the central bank left its benchmark rate on hold at 2.25%.

The energy sector fell 1.4% as the price of oil settled 1.1% lower at $56.82 a barrel. Investors balanced disruptions linked to escalating U.S.-Venezuelan tensions with oversupply concerns.

Technology lost 0.8%, with shares of e-commerce company Shopify Inc down 2.6%.

Six of the 10 major sectors ended higher. That included a gain of 0.5% for financials as long-term borrowing costs fell.

Canada’s 10-year yield eased 2 basis points to 3.423%.

Consumer staples was another standout, rising 0.8%.

12/15/25 16:18

Three year-end stock buying ideas

– Ted Dixon

While it has been an excellent year for Canadian stocks, there are inevitably some stocks that trail the pack. Today, I look at some laggards that may be coming under pressure as we head into year-end because of tax-loss selling: Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU-T, TFI International Inc. TFII-T and BCE Inc. BCE-T.

12/15/25 16:03

Wall Street closes lower as investors position for busy week of data

– Reuters

U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday as investors braced for a slew of economic data later this week while assessing reports on Federal Reserve candidates and commentary from policymakers for clues on the interest rate outlook.

The nonfarm payroll figures for October and November are due later this week, along with reports on retail sales, business activity and inflation. October’s jobs data was delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday amid concerns about inflation and debt-fueled AI investments. Traders also assessed a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s candidacy for the Fed chair role received some pushback from people close to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Speculation has been rife over a possible frontrunner as Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Expectations for a dovish Fed chair have fueled bets for interest rate cuts next year. Also on Monday, New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank’s interest rate cut last week leaves it in a good position, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that current inflation does not reflect the true supply-demand dynamics.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 9.95 points, or 0.15%, to end at 6,816.34 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 135.14 points, or 0.58%, to 23,060.03. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.43 points, or 0.09%, to 48,416.62.

12/15/25 14:30

Richard Bernstein on how to invest in 2026

– Darcy Keith

The widely respected Richard Bernstein Advisors is just out with its 2025 year in review and market outlook. Its advice to investors overall: look for quality, broader opportunities than U.S. stocks, and dividends.

Yes – dividends! Now that we got your attention, here are some highlights of the report:

“2025 earnings growth is turning out to be stronger than consensus and our own forecasts made at the beginning of the year. However, that broader earnings strength strongly supports our contention that liquidity and not fundamentals have driven market performance.”

“The Magnificent 7 may come under pressure if markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts in 2026. … We don’t think the Fed will be able to cut rates as much or as fast as investors currently believe because financial conditions are not hindering growth and, perhaps more importantly, inflation is simultaneously moving away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”

“Accordingly, our portfolios entering 2026 are geared toward more boring investments in which performance is less dependent on liquidity and on easier financial conditions. The two themes that dominate our equity portfolios as we enter 2026 are dividends and quality. We think these two cornerstones of building wealth have been forgotten by many investors. The compounding of dividends has historically been one of the easiest ways to build wealth yet is often overlooked. … On a total return basis, the S&P Dividend Aristocrat Index has marginally outperformed NASDAQ over the past 25 years with considerably less volatility.”

“Investors have commented for some time on the attractiveness of European and other non-US equities based purely on those regions’ undervaluation relative to the US, but ignored the regions’ inferior growth and were ultimately disappointed by performance. However, there appears to be a different rationale for non-US investing today in that non-US high quality companies now offer competitive if not superior earnings growth. Non-US developed market high quality stocks now offer investors the trifecta of superior growth, higher dividend yield, AND undervaluation.”

“RBA remains distinctly out of consensus regarding our avoidance of corporate credit within our fixed-income portfolios. Credit spreads are historically narrow and aren’t compensating investors for the risk of lower quality credits. … We prefer mortgages and treasuries while maintaining roughly benchmark duration because of our earlier mentioned inflation concerns.”

12/15/25 13:40

Oil prices are sliding as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows

– Reuters

Oil prices slid on Monday as investors balanced disruptions linked to escalating U.S.-Venezuelan tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures were down 81 cents, or 1.31%, to $60.65 a barrel at 12:30 p.m. ET, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $56.61 a barrel, down 83 cents, or 1.44%.

Both contracts slid more than 4% last week, weighed down by expectations of a global oil surplus in 2026.

Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply since the U.S. seized a tanker last week and imposed fresh sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the Latin American oil producer, according to shipping data, documents and maritime sources.

The market is closely monitoring developments and their impact on oil supply, with Reuters reporting the U.S. plans to intercept more ships carrying oil from Venezuela following the tanker seizure, intensifying pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Still, ample oil supplies already en route to China – Venezuela’s biggest oil buyer – as well as plentiful global supplies and weaker demand are buffering some of the impact of supply disruptions tied to the tanker seizure.

Progress in U.S. peace talks also pushed the market lower on Monday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop his country’s aspiration to join the NATO military alliance as he held five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday. A second round of talks concluded on Monday.

A possible peace deal could eventually increase Russian oil supply, which is currently sanctioned by Western countries.

Rising expectations of a surplus also weighed on prices, as did weaker economic data out of China. Factory output there slowed to a 15-month low in November, while retail sales grew at their weakest pace since December 2022.

J.P. Morgan Commodities Research said in a note on Saturday that oil surpluses in 2025 were expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply was projected to outpace demand, expanding at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026.

12/15/25 13:05

Now vs. 1999

– Scott Barlow

The primary difference between now and the tech bubble of the late 1990s is that tech companies now have earnings that roughly justify their mammoth market caps. Cisco Systems Inc. traded at roughly 130 times forward earnings during the dot-com bubble but Nvidia Corp, the darling of the current AI-related market frenzy, is trading at only 26 times forward profits.

The S&P 500 is dominated to a record extent by the largest tech companies. Nvidia, Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet, Amazon.com, Broadcom Ltd. and Meta Platforms Inc. account for 36 per cent of total benchmark market cap. They also account for 26 per cent of all S&P 500 profits and are forecast to contribute 46 per cent of benchmark earnings growth next year.

Market concentration does represent risk. If one of the big companies falters it will take index returns with it. But valuations have not been driven to speculative excess as they were in 1999, making current market conditions far less precarious by comparison.

12/15/25 12:03

U.S. stocks drift at the start of a week full of economic updates

– The Associated Press

Wall Street is drifting in mixed trading on Monday at the start of a week full of economic reports that could drive where interest rates, and thus stock prices, go.

The S&P 500 edged down by 0.1 per cent in midday trading, coming off its first losing week in the last three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 72 points, or 0.1 per cent, as of 11:40 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3 per cent lower.

Helping to keep the overall market in check were stocks in the artificial-intelligence industry, which were mixed following their scary swings last week.

Nvidia (NVDA-Q), the chip company that’s become the face of the AI boom, rose 1.5 per cent. It was one of the strongest forces pushing upward on the S&P 500 Monday after dropping 4.1 per cent last week.

But Oracle (ORCL-N) sank another 2.8 per cent following its 12.7-per-cent tumble last week, which was its worst in more than seven years. Broadcom (AVGO-Q) fell 4.5 per cent.

AI stocks have been shaky on worries that all the billions of dollars flowing into chips and data centers may not produce a big-enough payoff of profits and productivity to make it worth it. The doubts are causing cracks for the industry, whose earlier surges was the main driver for the U.S. market’s rally to records.

Besides AI, the main focus on Wall Street this week will be what several big updates on the U.S. economy’s health say.

On Tuesday will come the jobs report for November, and economists expect it to show employers added 40,000 more jobs than they cut during the month. Thursday will bring an update on the inflation that U.S. consumers are feeling, and economists expect it to show inflation was at 3.1 per cent last month, still higher than households and policymakers would like.

12/15/25 11:22

Miners support TSX as inflation steadies

– Reuters

Canada’s main stock index inched higher on Monday, aided by gains in gold and silver miners, while domestic inflation data did little to sway expectations around the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy path.

At 11:22 a.m. ET, The Canadian benchmark index was up was up 6.46 points, or 0.02 per cent, at 31,533.85.

The global gold subindex rose 0.8 per cent as the yellow metal neared seven-week highs, supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions.

The materials index added as much as 0.3 per cent as silver hovered below its all-time high.

Putting a lid on further gains, the energy index fell 1.1 per cent, tracking oil prices.

“The precious metal space still has legs. We saw some volatility in metals back in October, after that it’s continued on this positive momentum,” said Shiraz Ahmed, founder and CEO at Sartorial Wealth.

“We’ll likely see some enhanced volatility this week,” Ahmed added, noting possible profit-taking this week after a strong run for Canadian equities.

The index touched a record high last week as expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts weighed on the dollar, in turn pushing up metal prices.

12/15/25 11:01

10 takeaways from Morgan Stanley’s thematic investing conference

– Scott Barlow

Morgan Stanley recently held a thematic investing conference with the goal of putting rigorous analysis towards finding sustainable, investable thematic stock picks.

Analyst Stephen Byrd listed 10 takeaways from the meeting:

1) Investor interest in themes is rising quickly;

2) AI is “catalyzing” [the quotes are because I refuse to believe that’s a word] a generational capex and productivity cycle;

3) Power supply strategies to capture data center demand were front an center, including microgrid (a new term for me, meaning highly localized power provider) companies like Bloom Energy and Solaris Energy;

4) AI development and critical minerals are equally important geopolitical issues.;

5) Thematic investors are switching from trading to holding trend-based ideas longer;

6) AI use is broadening into more traditional industries;

7) Longevity is an underfollowed investment theme;

8) Direct to customer financial products is starting to trend;

9) Brain implants are another important theme even if it scares me silly, personally;

10) The importance of executing business plans over having the best technology.

12/15/25 10:57

Market bets for BoC rate moves, post-inflation report

– Darcy Keith

Money market traders aren’t betting on a further Bank of Canada rate cut despite a slightly softer-than-expected inflation number this morning.

Implied probabilities in overnight index swap markets suggest a mere 2.3-per-cent chance the bank will cut rates again on Jan 28 of next year, according to Bloomberg data.

Indeed, traders are positioning for the next move to be higher in the overnight rate, with about 50-per-cent odds the bank will pull the trigger on that next September. Odds are about 85 per cent that we will see the first rate hike at the end of next October. Those are high odds – but they are actually down from last week, when implied probabilities suggested a nearly 100 per cent chance that the first rate hike would occur by next October.

12/15/25 10:46

Tesla shares jump as Musk confirms driverless robotaxi testing

– Reuters

Tesla shares (TSLA-Q) hit their highest in nearly a year on Monday after CEO Elon Musk said the electric-vehicle maker was testing its robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat.

While much of Tesla’s US$1.53-trillion valuation — the highest of any automaker globally — is tied to investor optimism around its self-driving technology and humanoid robot ambitions, the bulk of its revenue and profit still comes from selling electric vehicles.

Shares of the company rose as much as 4.9 per cent, hitting US$481.37, their highest in nearly a year.

The stock had hit a record high of US$488.54 on December 18 last year on hopes that the Trump administration would ease regulatory hurdles for self-driving cars.

Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June using modified Model Y vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving. Early operations were geo-fenced and included a human “safety monitor” in the passenger seat.

12/15/25 10:36

Williams says Fed policy in good position, sees inflation moderating in 2026

– Reuters

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank’s interest rate cut last week leaves it in a good position to deal with what lies ahead, adding that he sees inflation moderating amid cooling in the job market.

“Monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026,” Williams said at an event held by the New Jersey Bankers Association in Jersey City. With the recent easing, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee “has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy toward neutral.”

Williams said it is “imperative” to get inflation back to 2 per cent while not “creating undue risk” to the job market. “My assessment is that in recent months, the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.”

Williams’ comments were his first public remarks since the Fed cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.50-3.75-per-cent range on December 10, in an effort to balance rising risks to the job market with inflation levels that remain problematically above the 2-per-cent target.

12/15/25 10:20

Bridgewater warns Big Tech’s reliance on external capital to fund AI boom is ‘dangerous’

– Reuters

The AI spending boom is entering a “dangerous” phase as Big Tech firms increasingly tap external investors to cover mounting costs, a top executive at hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates said on Monday.

The warning underscores the degree of unease rippling through markets as several investors have begun to question the sustainability of massive capital spending on AI.

While the technology has deeply permeated the economy, critics are beginning to wonder how severe the fallout could be if the boom fails to translate into tangible profits.

“Going forward, there is a reasonable probability that we will soon find ourselves in a bubble,” Bridgewater’s Co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen wrote in a note.

With costs rising beyond what internal cash flows can support, companies are turning to outside sources of funding to pursue their ambitions.

A UBS report last month said AI data center and project financing deals surged to US$125-billion until November this year, from US$15-billion in the same period in 2024.

12/15/25 10:05

Debt woes

– Scott Barlow

The Americans are really pushing the limits of the argument that there’s no practical limit on federal public debt

H/T The Wall Street Journal: Interest payments on US federal debt have grown to “over $1 trillion—more than military spending.”

How the economy navigates the additional growth on tap will be a function of the cost of debt and, critically, sustaining high growth.

#economy #debt #markets @wsj.com

[image or embed]

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm.bsky.social) December 15, 2025 at 9:52 AM

12/15/25 09:55

How economists are reacting to today’s inflation reading

– Darcy Keith

Here’s what economists are saying about today’s Canadian inflation report – and what it may mean for future Bank of Canada rate moves:

Douglas Porter, chief economist, BMO Capital Markets

“A relatively clean inflation read to finish off a messy year. The Bank of Canada will be heartened by the moderation in the main core measures, but headline inflation is still coming in a bit above their expectation for Q4 (they had penciled in an average of 2.0 per cent; will likely be 2.2 per cent). The clear culprit here is the re-emergence of grocery price inflation. While the Bank’s policies can do precious little about that, the reality is that rising food prices can make a big impact on inflation expectations…which the Bank cares about a great deal. Overall, though, the calming core metrics would fit with the view that the BoC will be comfortable on the sidelines for some time yet.”

Michael Davenport, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics

“Despite choppiness in headline inflation, we expect excess slack in the economy will cause core inflation to gradually ease and return to 2 per cent by early 2027. The BoC will likely look through the temporary rise in inflation from base effects next year and remain on hold through 2026 as it tries to balance upside and downside risks to inflation from the trade war amid still elevated trade policy uncertainty.”

Andrew Grantham, senior economist, CIBC

“Core inflation is still too high to allow further interest rate cuts, albeit not strong enough to justify recent market pricing for hikes before the end of 2026. We continue to forecast the Bank of Canada to hold its overnight rate steady at its current level throughout next year.”

David Rosenberg, economist with Rosenberg Research

“Strip out the ridiculous mortgage-interest entry, and the CPI was just up 0.1 per cent month-over-month in November, and this metric is running barely above the midpoint 2.0-per-cent target. The bond bears and policy hawks can take a chill pill.”

12/15/25 09:35

North American stocks indexes rise as busy week of economic releases begins

– Reuters

Canada’s main stock index rose on Monday, with gold stocks leading gains, as investors assessed domestic inflation print.

At 9:30 a.m. ET, Toronto’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.6 per cent at 31,707.04 points.

Canada’s annual inflation rate was 2.2 per cent in November, unchanged from the previous month, driven primarily by an increase in food prices which rose at their fastest pace in more than two years, Statistics Canada said on Monday.

A year-on-year drop in the costs of gasoline and shelter partially offset the rise in food prices, the statistics agency said.

It was the first month since March that core measures of inflation, which strip out volatile items, came in below 3 per cent, the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s control range.

Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Monday, rebounding from a tech-driven rout last week, while investors braced for a barrage of economic data that could set the course for interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 136.3 points, or 0.28 per cent, at the open to 48,594.36. The S&P 500 rose 32.8 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 6,860.19​, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 134.9 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 23,330.039.

Tuesday will bring non-farm payrolls figures for November and October, the latter being delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

Reports on business activity, weekly jobless claims and inflation later this week will be closely watched by investors hunting for clues on the economy’s strength and the Fed’s next moves on policy. Rate calls from Europe, the UK and Japan will add to a crowded central-bank calendar.

“The labour market numbers will be watched especially closely. A softer labour market and tame inflation could encourage markets to bring forward expectations for the next rate cut,” said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst, Capital.com.

12/15/25 09:03

Canadian dollar strengthens, benchmark yield slips

– Reuters

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Monday, and the yield on benchmark government debt slipped.

The loonie was trading 0 per cent higher at $1.3767 to the greenback, or 72.64 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3748 to 1.3777.

Canadian government 10-year bond yields fell 3 basis points to 3.413 per cent. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt fell to 4.1723 per cent.

U.S. January crude futures fell 38 US cents to US$57.06 a barrel on Monday.

Canadian factory sales fell 1.0 per cent in October from the previous month, Statistics Canada said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected factory sales to drop 1.1 per cent.

Canadian housing starts in November rose more than expected to 254,100 units from a revised 232,200 units the previous month, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said.

A survey of 7 economists polled by Reuters had forecast November housing starts rising to 250,000 units.

12/15/25 08:44

Canadian housing starts increase 9.4 per cent in November

– Reuters

Canadian housing starts rose 9.4 per cent in November from the previous month, data from the national housing agency showed on Monday.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts climbed to 254,058 units from a revised 232,245 units in October, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said.

Economists had expected starts to rise to 250,000.

12/15/25 08:35

Canada’s annual inflation in November stays unchanged at 2.2 per cent

– Reuters

Canada’s annual inflation rate grew by 2.2 per cent in November, unchanged from the previous month, led primarily by an increase in food prices which crossed a two-year peak last month, Statistics Canada said on Monday.

The rise in overall consumer price index, however, was partly offset by annual change in gasoline prices and shelter costs, the statistics agency said.

This was also the first month since March that core measures of inflation, which strips off volatile items, came below the 3-per-cent mark, the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s inflation control range.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the annual inflation at 2.3 per cent and on a month on month basis it was estimated to be at 0.1 per cent.

The monthly inflation in November matched analysts estimates and was lower than October’s 0.2 per cent, StatsCan said.

12/15/25 08:20

The most oversold and overbought stocks on the TSX

– Scott Barlow

The S&P/TSX Composite was up 0.8 per cent for the trading week ending with Friday’s close and is now 30.7 per cent higher for 2025. The benchmark’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 62 leaves it in the upper reaches of technically neutral territory, much closer to the overbought sell signal of 70 than the attractive, oversold buy signal of 30.

There are three benchmark constituents with attractive RSIs below 30 indicating the potential for a bounceback. Telus Corp. is the most oversold company with Stantec Inc. and Empire Co. Ltd as the others.

12/15/25 07:43

Citi sets 2026 S&P 500 target at 7,700, expects AI to remain key theme

– Reuters

Citigroup has set a year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500 index for 2026, pointing to robust corporate earnings and sustained tailwinds from artificial intelligence investments.

The brokerage said in a note on Friday that it expects AI infrastructure build-out to be a key theme in 2026, echoing Wall Street peers, but predicts the focus will shift from companies that enable AI to those that adopt the nascent technology.

“While the AI emphasis is expected to be persistent, the evolution will likely follow a perceived winner versus loser dynamic,” strategists at Citi said.

Citi’s target implies a 12.7-per-cent gain from the benchmark’s last close of 6827.41 points. The brokerage estimates earnings per share for the index to reach US$320 by the end of next year, higher than consensus estimates of about US$310.

The widely-tracked index has gained about 16 per cent this year, spurred broadly by investor optimism around AI, robust corporate profits and expectations of falling interest rates, despite fears of a market bubble and high technology valuations.

“To be clear, a high valuation starting point is a hurdle for the market, but not an insurmountable one. Rather, it puts increasing pressure on fundamentals to support the price action,” Citi said.

12/15/25 07:29

Canadian housing affordability continues to improve

– Scott Barlow

National Bank economics and strategy analysts Kyle Dahms and Alexandra Ducharme detailed improving housing affordability metrics,

“Housing affordability continued to improve in the third quarter of 2025, marking a seventh consecutive quarterly gain, the longest streak since the 1980’s. The composite mortgage payment as a percentage of income fell to 51.9 per cent, its lowest level in almost four years, as home price declines in several markets provided relief in terms of affordability. Still, this level remains largely above the historical average since 2000 of 40.4 per cent. Moreover, following a 6-quarter streak of lower financing costs, the 5-year mortgage rate has increased by 4 basis points, slightly limiting the overall improvement in affordability. Despite the latest rise, prospective borrowers are financing 34 basis points lower than a year ago. Diving into the details of the report, the improvement was uneven across markets with Toronto and Vancouver leading the progress, posting the largest quarterly declines in MPPI thanks to a significant fall in prices. Conversely, affordability deteriorated in Québec City, Edmonton and Winnipeg where price growth and interest rates outpaced income gains. Montreal saw only a marginal improvement as home prices were essentially flat after strong gains in prior quarters. All in all, affordability gains have occurred predominantly in markets which were the most stretched in comparison to those offering cheaper dwellings. This trend may continue in Toronto and Vancouver as weaknesses observed in those resale markets do not suggest a significant rebound in prices in the short term”

Full report: here

12/15/25 07:17

The factors that kill bull markets will not be there in 2026

– Scott Barlow

Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel is almost certainly my best discovery in the sell-side strategy business in 2025. In his most recent report, he presents a 2026 market forecast and also makes some good points about the factors that have historically ended bull markets,

“7,750: The Bull Market will extend in 2026, underpinned by the ongoing AI Revolution and reinforced by solid if unremarkable economic growth, and fiscal and monetary stimulus (OBBB, Fed Cut Cycle). Importantly, the signs that have historically ended Bull markets – Recession, “uncooperative” Fed, exuberant investor and Capital Markets sentiment – are absent. Base Case is SPX 7,750 at YE 2026, $296 EPSe (up 8.4 per cent year-over-year, 26.2 times). At the same time, 2026 is primed to be more volatile than the last year, swings magnified by equity valuations approaching Dotcom Era extremes, top heavy Index concentration, and Economic and Political/Geopolitical uncertainty. Volatility is a feature of Bull markets – the Nasdaq’s Dotcom Bull saw regular 10-per-cent-plus corrections. Stay the course, stay invested in the ‘AI Revolution’ Buy Stocks when VIX is High, Buy Options When VIX Is Low.”

12/15/25 07:02

Six reasons the gold rally will continue

– Scott Barlow

Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie finds six reasons the gold rally will continue,

“* Elevated trade uncertainty. Trade negotiations with China continue and the USMCA is up for renewal next year.

* Fiscal and debt issues. The U.S., as well as many countries, are running large deficits (as percentage of GDP) with no plan to return to equilibrium. That implies government debt, which is already elevated, will just keep rising in coming years. To provide some perspective, the U.S. debt now stands at US$37.6-trillion, up from US$22.7-trillion in 2019 (up 65 per cent in 5 years), while the average interest rate on the debt has climbed from 2.5 per cent back then to 3.36 per cent in 2025.

* Central banks are buying gold for diversification purposes, but also to reduce their reliance on the greenback.

* Stablecoins backed by physical gold: A new source of demand. Media reports estimate that Tether has hoarded so far over 120 tons of gold to back its token. And Tether is not the only one backing its token with physical gold.

* Weaker dollar. We remain bearish on the USD, and we see further decline as positive for precious metals.

* Concerns about the Fed independence. If Trump succeeds in appointing a Fed chair aligned with his dovish stance (likely delivering questionable rate cuts), it could erode confidence in U.S. institutions, intensify selling pressures on the dollar (positive for gold to some extent)”

12/15/25 06:51

Wall Street futures edge higher at start of data-packed week

– Reuters

Open this photo in gallery:

A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after close of trading on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Dec. 11.Jeenah Moon/Reuters

U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Monday, steadying after a tech-led selloff gripped Wall Street late last week and as investors geared up for a week packed with key economic data that could determine the outlook for interest rates.

Traders also got more clarity on candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair post next year as U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a report, said he narrowed his search to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

Expectations for a dovish chair have boosted expectations for Fed interest rate cuts next year, even as inflation stays above the 2-per-cent target and price pressures in other developed markets are boosting rate hike expectations.

JPMorgan top boss Jamie Dimon signaled support for former Fed Governor Warsh, according to a report, on the likelihood that Hassett could cut rates in the short term. Trump’s decision on the nominee is expected early next year.

Tuesday will bring non-farm payrolls figures for November and October, the latter being delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

Reports on business activity, weekly jobless claims and inflation later this week will also be pivotal for investors keen on the health of the economy and the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory. Rate decisions out of Europe, the UK and Japan are also expected this week.

At 5:45 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 231 points, or 0.48 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.48 per cent, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 118.25 points, or 0.47 per cent.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday as worries of sticky inflation and debt-fueled artificial intelligence investments pulled the indexes further away from record highs.

Those worries have weighed on U.S. equities several times over the past three months, helping Europe’s STOXX 600 outperform the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis.

In some relief, a Reuters report last week said Nvidia (NVDA-Q) is considering increasing production capacity for its powerful H200 AI chips. The company’s shares were up 1 per cent in premarket trading after last week’s 4-per-cent slide.

Weed stocks Cronos (CRON-T) and Tilray Brands (TLRY-T) gained 6 per cent each on reports that the U.S. could soon ease restrictions on marijuana.

Investors will also scrutinize commentary by a slew of policymakers this week after the Fed lowered interest rates on Wednesday.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran and the central bank’s New York Fed president, John Williams, are expected to speak later in the day. The two permanent voting members are viewed as policy doves.

12/15/25 06:51

Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

– David Leeder

After tariffs “seldom left the spotlight in 2025,“ trade-related uncertainty is likely to continue to weigh on Canadian industrial companies in the year ahead, according to National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev, who sees a backdrop “set for more choppy waters.”

In a research report released Monday, he reviewed the past 12 months in his coverage universe and previewed 2026, emphasizing the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which he calls “a cornerstone of the North American economy for over 30 years and a key driver in Canada managing to avoid a recession thus far, is set to come up for renegotiation and predicts the U.S. is ”likely to use their (real and perceived) market power to extract further economic concessions.”

• Companies discussed include: Athabasca Oil Corp., AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., ATS Corp., AutoCanada Inc., Brookfield Corp., Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., Colliers International Group Inc., Element Fleet Management Corp., Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Finning International Inc., Hudbay Minerals Inc., Lundin Mining Corp., North American Construction Group Ltd., Onex Corp., RB Global Inc., Stantec Inc., Stella-Jones Inc., Wajax Corp., WSP Global Inc.
• Read more: Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

12/15/25 05:58

Amber Kanwar’s Weekly Setup: Top-tier economic data, BlackBerry earnings and other essential things to watch

– Amber Kanwar

Before we can all head out for the holidays, there are some top-tier economic data being released that will be key to central bank policy. We are expecting a read of inflation in Canada on Monday and prices for the month of November are estimated to have ticked up to 2.3 per cent. With inflation right around target, some speculate we might not get rate moves in either direction next year. “Fully 7 of the past 15 years have seen the Bank on hold for a full calendar year,” wrote BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, who recently shifted his call to no rate changes for 2026.

U.S. data will be chockablock with the release of November job numbers and October retail sales on Tuesday, and then the consumer price index on Thursday. Anxieties about the rate path were stoked last week when the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack said she would prefer rates to be more restrictive. She will be a voter on Fed policy in 2026. There are also a host of international rate decisions from the European Central Bank (expected to hold on Thursday), Bank of England (expected to cut on Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (expected to hike Friday).

10/28/25 05:22

Global stocks stabilize ahead of big central bank decisions, key data

– Reuters

European shares moved higher on Monday as Wall Street futures pointed to a recovery from last week’s sell-off, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data.

Europe’s benchmark STOXX index of 600 large companies gained 0.6 per cent. S&P 500 e-mini futures rebounded 0.4 per cent, after U.S. stocks had slumped on Friday over concerns about a bubble in Artificial Intelligence shares and lingering inflation in the world’s biggest economy.

Asia shares were less buoyant thanks to renewed worries in China’s property market. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.2 per cent, led by a drop of as much as 2.7 per cent in South Korean shares, one of the world’s best-performing markets this year.

“The risk-off tone across Asia looks more like a spillover from last Friday’s selloff in U.S. momentum and tech than a region-specific catalyst,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

“The unwind in the AI-capex trade weighed on global risk appetite, and in thin year-end liquidity those moves tend to travel quickly across regions.”

Among the central banks making decisions this week, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent, while the Bank of England may make an equal-sized cut to 3.75 per cent.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, alongside Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank.

Investors will also have the chance to catch up on economic data that was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, including the jobs report for November and the monthly consumer price index.

12/15/25 05:20

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

– SR Slobodian

Global markets were mixed with European shares moving higher, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data.

Wall Street futures pointed to a recovery from last week’s selloff: Dow futures were up 0.37 per cent, S&P 500 futures rose 0.34 per cent and Nasdaq futures were 0.28 per cent higher as of 4 a.m. ET.

TSX futures followed sentiment higher.

“The unwind in the AI-capex trade weighed on global risk appetite, and in thin year-end liquidity those moves tend to travel quickly across regions,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.63 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.73 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.28 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.8 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.31 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.34 per cent.