Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings – The Blueprint

I will update through Sunday morning, so come back then for final news reactions, and check out my content on YouTube, podcasts, and X.

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1. Jahmyr Gibbs – 115.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB1 on RB3 usage this month. During that span, the Lions have been top-5 in neutral pass rate for the first time in forever, but Gibbs is squarely involved there and is taking a bigger share of the carries in 2025 compared to last year. The Lions have the highest team total of the week (29.5) against a banged up Steelers DL.

2. Bijan Robinson – 133.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB3 on RB5 usage this month, coming off a season-high 22.8 expected half PPR points. Robinson should take advantage of the Cardinals’ weak defense. The Falcons are projected for the 9th-most points (25.25), which isn’t the norm!

3. Christian McCaffrey – 104.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB9 on RB1 usage this month, and the 49ers are 3rd in projected points (26.5) against the Colts, who likely won’t have DT DeForest Buckner. The Niners really can’t run the ball behind this bad OL, but McCaffrey is 6th in receptions this year … across all positions.

4. James Cook – 102.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

5. De’Von Achane – 115.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • They need to make sure this isn’t true, but Quinn Ewers is probably even worse than Tua. At least Achane will be the focal point as usual, and it is an eruption spot against the Bengals’ lifeless defense. He’s the RB5 on RB28 usage this month after leaving early once. Ewers’ arm seemed shot due to injuries based on his college tape, so a quick-hitting offense should remain.

6. Jonathan Taylor – 112.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB24 on RB9 usage this month. Last week, Taylor had 17.9 expected half PPR points but had little room to run with boxes stacked in Seattle. He’s still capable of a big play with Philip Rivers, but the offense is definitely way worse because they can’t threaten downfield anymore. The Colts had Ameer Abdullah in the pass game, too. With another week to practice and with a much easier matchup against the 49ers’ injured defense, things should look a lot cleaner here for everyone involved. Indianapolis is mathematically alive still.

7. Derrick Henry – 91.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB10 on RB11 usage this month, and the Ravens are 8th in projected points (25.75) at home against the Patriots as 3-point favorites. Henry probably has 90% straight line speed but seems to be turning a bit slower around the edge. That might explain why Keaton Mitchell is stealing more reps than normal recently. Baltimore’s OL also isn’t pushing piles as much as before either. Still, Henry is a big play threat with elite short-yardage TD equity now that Lamar Jackson looks healthy. The Patriots have allowed 100+ rushing yards to backfields in 3-straight games without DT Milton Williams. From Doug Kyed, “The Patriots’ defense is now 30th in rush EPA/play and 31st in rush success rate since Milton Williams got injured in Week 11.”

8. Josh Jacobs – 87.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Last week was a season-low 10.1 expected half PPR points while having his snaps limited due to a knee injury. You wouldn’t know it on tape though. Jacobs mossed a defender in the end zone and had a few nice runs. He’ll have to do so without RT Zach Tom now, but the Bears are much worse than the Broncos on defense. He had 92 total yards and a score against them a few weeks back. Green Bay’s 23.5-point team total is above average.

9. Saquon Barkley – 95.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB19 on RB8 usage this month, and the Eagles are 5th in projected points (26.0) against the Commanders injured defense and slow linebackers. Even against the Raiders, Barkley only had a 3.5 YPC, so he’ll need scores and the random explosive run to pay off as an RB1. Philly just can’t push piles in 2025 after running the ball more than any team in NFL history last year. I think Barkley’s tape has been solid all year despite only averaging 3.3 YPC since the bye removing that fake Tush Push 52-yarder.

10. Travis Etienne – 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB4 on RB14 usage this month, and now Bhayshul Tuten (finger) is out for weeks. Etienne is on pace for his 3rd 1,400-yard season and a career-high amount of scores in a contract year. Liam Coen spotted bad LB play for the Jets and exploited them by using Etienne out in space. The Broncos are infinitely better, but Etienne will handle most RB touches with pass-protection specialist LeQuint Allen as the backup now. Jacksonville has an average 21.75-point team total on the road.

11. Chase Brown – 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB12 on RB10 usage this month, and the Bengals are 6th in projected points (26.0) this week against a Dolphins team benching their QB for a nearly UDFA rookie. In 5 games with Joe Burrow, Brown is averaging 15.8 expected half PPR points (RB7 usage), while Samaje Perine handles pass protection duties. That’s up from 13.0 expected without him.

12. Javonte Williams – 79.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB15 on RB7 usage this month, a stretch against some of the better defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are just that, but they are worse against the run for what it’s worth. The Cowboys are projected for the 7th-most points (26.0) while hosting in Jerry World. Last week was more of a rotation with Malik Davis, however, and the Boys are eliminated from the playoffs if they wanted to take another look at him.

13. RJ Harvey – 70.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Broncos are 3rd in neutral pass rate this month and have been moving away from the ground game since JK Dobbins injury, and Harvey is so inconsistent on tape. Yet, the rookie is a bellcow on a respectable team with receptions and goal line carries in his projections. This month, Harvey is the RB6 on RB4 usage with a bye and games against the Raiders and Commanders over that stretch. The Broncos are 10th in projected points this week (24.75) against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the highest neutral pass rate this year. Teams chose to pass the ball against them, which hopefully means some fun receptions to Harvey. We’ve seen big reception outings from him. He just can’t be the 2nd-worst RB in success rate when he has one of the best OLs in the NFL in front of him. His eyes need to get better. That’s more of a real life take than anything with fantasy though.

14. TreVeyon Henderson – 78.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB7 on RB15 usage this month. Henderson still is playing about half the snaps because Rhamondre Stevenson gets some carries and plays the most in pass protection, but Henderson hasn’t made that a wart so far because he’s so fast. He’s going untouched for scores, hiding his clear-cut RB2 usage without the guaranteed goal-line role. The Ravens don’t have a great DL but their secondary can tackle. New England’s 22.75-point team total is a lot lower than normal.

15. D’Andre Swift – 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Nothing has really changed in this 1-2 punch, and Swift has settled as an upside RB2 since the Bears bye. He’s the RB14 on RB24 usage this month but that climbs to RB6 on RB16 usage in the last 3 games. The Bears are down Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle), so they should be even more committed to Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Packers have been a run funnel on defense, and DT1 Devonte Wyatt and EDGE1 Micah Parsons (ACL) are out. Chicago has an average 22.0-point team total at home. A healthy portion of touches is on the way.

16. Woody Marks

    • The rookie left with an ankle last week, and Nick Chubb (ribs) missed. We’ll learn more later about who is healthy, but the Texans are 4th in projected points (26.25) this week at home against the lifeless Raiders defense. Marks was playing full-time snaps without Chubb.

17. Bucky Irving – 89.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Irving isn’t as efficient this year because he’s coming off injury, playing behind an injured OL, and is without OC Liam Coen. More importantly, he lost the goal-line role to thiccccer Sean Tucker and the two-minute drill to Rachaad White. If Irving wasn’t so fun, then the narrative would be these are trap touches. He’s the RB20 on RB21 usage this month since returning. Keep in mind both of his guards are on IR, and this is a December division game on the road. It’ll be a handful to stop DT Derrick Brown.

18. Kyren Williams – 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB13 on RB31 usage this month. It’s the same drive-by-drive rotation, with Williams potentially subbing in for some extra goal-line touches. The difference is the Rams are only projected for 22.5 points after going on a run of 30-45 points for the past couple months. The Seahawks are awesome at every level and managed to slow down Los Angeles for much of their first matchup.

19. Tyrone Tracy – 62.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Giants still played Devin Singletary on the inside the 5-yard line snaps, but Tracy dominated touches otherwise and played well. Jaxson Dart hit him on an out-and-up 18-yard TD against Bobby Wagner and then ran hard on 12-yard TD. The Giants have been a top-12 offense in EPA per play this year, so don’t use their record against Tracy too much. He’s the RB16 on RB18 usage this month.

20. Omarion Hampton – 61.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The rookie still played fewer snaps than Kimani Vidal (pass protection vs. Spags perhaps), but Hampton separated in terms of touches. He handled the goal-line opportunity and is more likely to rip open a big play. How often that happens is a different story behind this bottom-3 OL. He’s the RB26 on RB25 usage this month. The Cowboys have sured up their run defense, so this is more of a pass funnel matchup for LA, but the Chargers’ team total is up at 23.5 points. That’s promising.

21. Kenneth Gainwell – 69.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB21 on RB13 usage this month. It’s clear Gainwell is a fan favorite of Aaron Rodgers and OC Arthur Smith, as he keeps getting designed receptions and routes out of empty. He doesn’t get many early-down carries or snaps, but when he’s on the field, he’s getting targets and those can come in the red zone, too. The Steelers are down multiple OL now, but Gainwell fits the projected game script against the Lions in Detroit. Pittsburgh is in a dome and 7-point dogs.

22. Aaron Jones – 82.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This is an eruption spot against the inept Giants defense, but things have to get much better for him to be relevant. Jones is the RB43 on RB37 usage this month because the Vikings have been rotating Jordan Mason in a lot more. In fact, Jones’ expected half PPR points have sat between 7.2 and 8.9 in 4-straight games, and Mason out-expected him two weeks back. They’ve recently split the snaps near the goal line, too, so Jones needs to catch passes and break off some nice runs to re-gain RB2 value. At least J.J. McCarthy is coming of his best game of his career, but the team needs to get a real look at Mason now that they’re eliminated.

23. Rico Dowdle – 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Update: LT Icky Ekwonu was a DNP on Wednesday.

    • He’s the RB27 on RB29 usage this month. The Panthers used Dowdle as the early-down grinder and goal-line back, while Chuba Hubbard inserted himself in more change-of-pace and passing-down situations. That’s what I’d expect for the rest of the way. What’s interesting this week is the matchup, as the Buccaneers are a clear-cut pass funnel. This month, the Panthers are dead last in neutral pass rate, so that’d be going against their identity. Their injured interior OL should struggle against Vita Vea. Hubbard had a scoreless 3.6 YPC against the Bucs last year for example.

24. Michael Carter – 68.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Bam Knight is out for the year, so it’s back to Carter on early downs with Emari Demercado available for passing situations. It’s an extremely pass-heavy team with 3 backup OL, but Carter would be the favorite for a goal-line TD. That’s key because the team total is actually above average at 22.75 points, and the Falcons are a run funnel on defense because they are so light in the shorts. The Cardinals’ RB1 in usage has averaged 12.1 expected half PPR points (RB18) since the James Conner injury.

25. Tony Pollard – 62.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Titans OL has stepped up recently, and Pollard has benefited. The rotation hasn’t changed, however. He’s the RB11 on RB30 usage this month after multiple explosive plays, though those were non-existent before. Pollard still plays for an offense projected for the 3rd-fewest points (17.0), and the Chiefs’ run defense still gets after it with DT Chris Jones.

26. Breece Hall – 57.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB35 on RB22 usage this month, as the Jets have bottomed out in every way. Hall can’t operate as usual with that level of QB play. He’s had 9.8 and 8.5 expected half PPR points the past two weeks (RB34 usage) and has done nothing with it. The Jets’ team total is at 18.0, and Brady Cook was announced as the starter again. Tough.

27. Kyle Monangai – 55.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB33 on RB27 usage this month, and nothing has changed. Monangai plays about 40% of the time and is capable of a big play or goal line touchdown any week. The Packers have been a run funnel since the Micah Parsons trade, and he’s now out. Packers DT1 Devonte Wyatt is also on IR.

28. Jaylen Warren – 56.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB25 on RB23 usage this month, but the roles have been firmly established. Kenny Gainwell is preferred in the pass game while, Warren is an early-down hammer type and the goal line rusher. The Steelers are 7-point dogs in Detroit this week, so this works against Warren in general.

29. David Montgomery – 50.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB32 on RB43 usage this month, but the Lions are at least projected for the most points on the week at 29.5. In 10 games this year when the Lions have scored between 24 and 44 points, Montgomery is averaging a respectable 11.5 half PPR points. We’ll see if T.J. Watt (lung) can go. It sounds like Steelers’ 1st-round DT Derrick Harmon will return.

30. Quinshon Judkins – 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Browns have backups at LT, C, RG, and RT, and are in the mix for the worst QB play, too. No Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford (IR) last week meant Judkins had a season-high 67% snap rate. It just didn’t matter with the Browns held to 3 points in freezing weather. The Bills are a run funnel defense, so maybe it gets better??? He’s the RB29 on RB26 usage this month. Cleveland is 2nd-lowest in projected points at 16.75.

31. Ashton Jeanty – 73.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB30 on RB12 usage this month, but over the past two weeks without Geno Smith, Jeanty has RB31 usage, too. It’s pathetic in Vegas. Jeanty is 3rd-lowest in success rate per NextGenStats on the year. Every screen they try is immediately sniffed out, too. The Raiders’ 11.75-point team total while in Houston is one of the lowest you’ll ever see.

32. Kenneth Walker – 60.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Seahawks lean on him early, but Walker is too prone for game script wonkiness, Zach Charbonnet goal line carries, or bad blocking up front to be trusted ever. That’s especially true with the Seahawks playing worse ball on offense and with the Rams’ pass funnel coming to town. He’s the RB47 on RB32 usage this month. Damn.

33. Blake Corum – 42.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

34. Audric Estime

    • Devin Neal (hamstring) is out, and Alvin Kamara (Cancun) isn’t practicing either. After Neal left, it was a combination of Estime on early downs and Evan Hull on late downs. As the mini bellcow, Neal was the RB28 on RB33 usage, and Estime isn’t going to absorb everything left behind. Estime has busted in his young career but as a prospect I saw a bruiser with some promise. This is his last call to hang around the NFL.

35. Chris Rodriguez – 42.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • We’ll see if he can return (groin), but the Commanders are turning the page after being eliminated. Marcus Mariota will close out the year and that could mean a little more rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt than before. On top of that, this week’s matchup against the Eagles stacks the deck agains them. Washington has a 19.5-point team total.

36. Chuba Hubbard – 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB23 on RB39 usage this month. Last week, Hubbard played on 88% of the late-down snaps as the primary receiving option, while Rico Dowdle handled 77% of the early-down work. A date with the Bucs usually means more dropbacks than carries, but Hubbard’s touchdown equity is pretty low.

37. Devin Singletary

    • He didn’t get a touch, but Singletary was subbed in for the plays within the 5-yard line last week. The difference was Tyrone Tracy operated as a bellcow between the 10s and scored multiple TDs from 10+ yards out. Jaxson Dart did have QB designed runs again, so Singletary could keep getting vultured even if he’s on the field.

38. Kareem Hunt

    • The Chiefs’ team total is down to 20.5 points, and the Titans’ have a great DT pairing to stop the run. Equally as important to Hunt is the split with Isaiah Pacheco now. His 4.2 expected half PPR points last week were a season low.

39. Rhamondre Stevenson – 48.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB44 on RB35 usage this month, and last week was a season-low 6.7 expected half PPR as he operated primarily in pass protection. We didn’t get any hints at who would be the goal line back moving forward, as the Patriots didn’t have a single snap inside the 5-yard line last week. Stevenson has a lot more size, but Henderson stole most of the carries away from Mondre between the 20s. Without a short-yardage role, Stevenson has nearly no value. We’ll eventually find out.

    • al (hamstring) can’t go, it’d be a combination of Estime, Evan Hull, and Taysom Hill. Devin Neal as the clear-cut starter has been the RB28 on RB33 usage, and I don’t think they’d use any of these backs in that exact role.

40. Zach Charbonnet – 38.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 81.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR1 on WR1 usage this month after a huge Week 14. In fact, his 31.8 expected half PPR points were the most by a receiver all year. The Lions are 1st in projected points (29.5) at home this week, and his matchup on the inside is easier than the one Jamo has on the outside. Jared Goff is playing great ball, and Amon-Ra is healthy enough for massive games. It’s helping him out to have Sam LaPorta out and the neutral pass rate creeping into the top-5 this month.

2. Puka Nacua – 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 91.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

4. Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

5. CeeDee Lamb – 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

6. Nico Collins – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

7. Michael Wilson – 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

8. A.J. Brown – 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

9. George Pickens – 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

10. Chris Olave – 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR22 on WR18 usage this month, and Devaughn Vele has been ruled out, as have RBs Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal. Tyler Shough continues to impress with a nice throwing base and ability to work through progressions, so Olave has a real weekly ceiling. That’s particularly true against the Jets without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. There’s a reason why the Jets fired DC Steve Wilks. It’s because they are extremely bad.

11. Mike Evans – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

12. DK Metcalf – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

13. Jameson Williams – 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

14. DeVonta Smith – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

15. Ladd McConkey – 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s been terrible, but the Chargers finally get a cleaner matchup with the Cowboys, who have allowed the most EPA to receivers this year. If DT Quinnen Williams is out, then Justin Herbert should be able to have enough time to hit his underneath YAC threat. We’ll see if Quentin Johnston (groin, limited) comes back.

16. Jauan Jennings

17. Courtland Sutton – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

18. Tetairoa McMillan – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

19. Zay Flowers – 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

20. Jakobi Meyers – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

21. Wan’Dale Robinson – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

22. DJ Moore – 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

23. Jaylen Waddle – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

24. Rashee Rice – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

25. Terry McLaurin – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

26. Justin Jefferson – 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

27. Jayden Reed – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

28. Emeka Egbuka – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

29. Keenan Allen – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • We’ll see about Quentin Johnston (groin, limited), but if he’s out, Allen is in an elite spot against the Cowboys’ pass funnel defense.

30. Adonai Mitchell – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

31. Jayden Higgins – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

32. Deebo Samuel – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

33. Khalil Shakir – 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

34. Brian Thomas – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

35. Jordan Addison – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

36. Michael Pittman – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

37. Stefon Diggs – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

38. Troy Franklin

39. Chris Godwin – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

40. Romeo Doubs – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

41. Xavier Worthy

42. Jalen Coker

43. Rashid Shaheed – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

44. Jerry Jeudy

45. Kayshon Boutte – 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

46. Darius Slayton – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

47. Darnell Mooney – 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

48. Chimere Dike

49. Alec Pierce – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Trey McBride – 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

2. Kyle Pitts – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • Last week without Drake London was the 3rd-best single-game performance in TE history. It was obviously a season-high in usage, too, at 19.3 expected half PPR points. Pitts has looked healthy this year, and now the offense is getting him both manufactured touches and runaway routes. It’s a great situation with the Falcons catching the Cardinals this time around on a top-10 team total (25.25 points). If London returns, I’d only drop him to TE3.

3. George Kittle – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE3 on TE5 usage this month, and Ricky Pearsall (knee) is going to miss again. The 49ers are also at home against an injured Colts defense on the 3rd-highest team total of the week (26.5 points). Kittle is a monster on tape still, and Brock Purdy looked healthy for the first time in months. It’s go time with a lot to play for in the standings.

4. Colston Loveland – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • This assumes Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) miss. Without them on the field last game, Loveland ran a route on 83% of dropbacks and had an elite 33% targets per route. Without them on the field across the entire year, Loveland has a monster 2.9 yards per route and 28% target share. To my eyes, the rookie looks like a future All Pro talent capable of diving catches, YAC explosives, and feel versus zone. The Packers’ defense looks more average than good without Micah Parsons and DT1 Devonte Wyatt, too.

5. Dallas Goedert – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE8 on TE13 usage this month. The Eagles are passing slightly more now, and Goedert has a beautiful individual matchup. Bobby Wagner is picked on, the Commanders are 4th-worst against fantasy TEs, and the Eagles are back to a 26.0-point team total. It’s an eruption spot.

6. Harold Fannin

   • He’s the TE5 on TE4 usage this month, even with the Browns largely looking terrible. No David Njoku (knee) meant Fannin ran a route on 95% of dropbacks last week, and he had an elite 33% targets per route, too. Shedeur Sanders stinks while playing behind 4 backup OL, but Fannin is the easy button in the offense, especially if Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford (IR) also miss again. The Bills crafty zone defense scares me, but that might mean more free receptions instead of asking Shedeur to read disguised zone looks downfield. Buffalo has been the best fantasy TE defense this year, however.

7. Travis Kelce – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • The team total is only at 20.5 points with Gardner Minshew, who doesn’t offer the extended play ability that granted Kelce a bunch of free production. Kelce does fit the Minshew quick-hitting offense, however, and Rashee Rice (concussion) might miss now. There could be a PPR scam element here as he winds down his career. He said “the Chiefs” instead of “we” on his podcast this week when talking about the 2026 team. He’s the TE14 on TE12 usage this month when everyone was healthy.

8. Brock Bowers – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • I mean, the Raiders are projected for 11.75 points against the Texans. With Kenny Pickett at QB last week, Bowers had 8 nearly worthless targets to the flats on a pathetic 2.0 average depth of target. That led to just 6.8 expected half PPR points because they were nowhere near the end zone or downfield. Bowers is the TE6 on TE6 usage this month, and it’s somehow worse right now.

9. Dalton Kincaid – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE12 on TE11 usage this month, while coming back from two leg injuries. Kincaid will always be a part-time player, but he’s also the most efficient TE on a per-route basis and plays for the Bills, who are once again 2nd in team total this week.

10. Colby Parkinson – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Update: The weather might be really windy.

    • He’s the TE4 on TE8 usage this month, coming off a season-high 12.2 expected half PPR points. The Rams faced a Lions defense last week with better LBs than DBs, and they set a season-high in 3-TE usage. It’s a bit that’s landing and will continue, especially without Davante Adams (hamstring). Parkinson isn’t a full-time player, but he’s the best combination of in-line and receiving skills of their TE rotation. Parkinson has some YAC ability and stands at about 8-foot-4, so some of the Adams’ red zone looks good trickle down to the big dog. The Seahawks are a great defense, but if they’ve been more average against anyone, it’s been TEs. They’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to TEs on the 2nd-most receptions. Parkinson is also the TE they have under contract for next season, too, so they have a plan for him.

11. Juwan Johnson – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE22 on TE19 usage this month, but Devaughn Vele (out), Devin Neal (out), and Alvin Kamara (out) are injured. Johnson’s involvement should go up, and Tyler Shough is peppering the middle of the field and is really reading the field well for a rookie. I’m impressed. A close game with the tanking Jets and their terrible LBs await.

12. Dalton Schultz – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE13 on TE9 usage this month, and the Texans are 4th in projected points at home against the Raiders’ simple zone defense with slow players up the middle. CJ Stroud is seeing the field well and has a willingness to throw over the middle against these looks. It’s an eruption spot.

13. Jake Ferguson – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

14. Hunter Henry – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

15. Mark Andrews – 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Lamar Jackson looked like himself again last week, but Andrews is only the TE38 on TE21 usage this month. It’s been a lot more Isaiah Likely in YAC situations, and then not many dropbacks in general. Andrews needs a red zone score to pay off. Baltimore is at least projected for 25.75 points at home in a near must-win game.

16. Theo Johnson – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

17. Oronde Gadsden – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

18. Darren Waller – 22.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Last week was sensational. Waller looks fast on tape, and he had 13.9 expected half PPR points while chasing points as a slot receiver. The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa and Quinn Ewers nearly went undrafted for a reason, so the range of outcomes is quite wide. Still, the Bengals have allowed a league-high 99 receptions to the position this year with terrible LB and S play. Waller is a can’t miss target right now. (Ewers: “Challenge accepted.)

19. Dawson Knox

    • Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Knox has had 11.4 and 11.5 expected half PPR points in the most recent games with the receiving group looking gross. The Bills will use Knox in play action near the goal line, so there is TD upside in an offense projected for the 2nd-most points again. He’s the TE10 on TE15 usage this month.

20. Brenton Strange – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

21. Tyler Warren – 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Colts had their lowest neutral pass rate of the season last week with Philip Rivers, and Warren took a beating with the ball floating over the middle. Things will be easier against non-Seahawks, but the offense is extremely capped in terms of blades of grass threatened. Warren’s 7.2 expected half PPR points from last week make him a clear fantasy TE2 with tons of teammate competition.

22. AJ Barner – 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

23. T.J. Hockenson – 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

24. Isaiah Likely – 24.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

25. Cole Kmet

26. Gunnar Helm

27. Evan Engram – 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

28. Pat Freiermuth

29. Mike Gesicki

30. Chig Okonkwo – 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Josh Allen

2. Jalen Hurts

3. Lamar Jackson

   • His tape last week was excellent. The Patriots are missing DT Milton Williams and haven’t faced many elite offenses this year. The Bills went nuts in the 2nd half last week against them in one of their lone tests. If Jackson can run like he did last week, the ceiling is back. The Ravens are 7th in projected points (25.75).

4. Drake Maye

5. Joe Burrow

6. Brock Purdy

   • The 49ers are 2nd in projected points (26.5) in a dome against a Colts defense missing a lot of their best players. Purdy ran around and pushed the ball downfield last week out of the bye after having some iffy games on a bad toe before. No Ricky Pearsall hurts, but the Niners are a walking shootout right now.

7. Dak Prescott

8. Jacoby Brissett

9. Jared Goff

10. Justin Herbert

    • We’ll see if DT Quinnen Williams can play, but if not, this is a great spot. The Cowboys have allowed the most EPA to receivers, and hopefully Herbert isn’t chased around as much.

11. C.J. Stroud

    • The Texans are 3rd in projected points (26.25) at home against the Raiders, and Stroud is playing his best ball since his rookie season right now. He’s seeing the field well from the pocket and showing some athleticism beyond it. The OL is much better now than before, and his receivers are all healthy again. This is an eruption spot in every way. The Texans need wins, while the Raiders are borderline tanking and have a starting CB on IR.

12. Jaxson Dart

13. Bo Nix

14. Caleb Williams

15. Jordan Love

16. Baker Mayfield

17. Tyler Shough

18. Trevor Lawrence

19. Kirk Cousins

20. Matthew Stafford – 16.1 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

21. Sam Darnold – 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

22. J.J. McCarthy

23. Aaron Rodgers

24. Bryce Young

25. Gardner Minshew

26. Marcus Mariota

27. Cam Ward

28. Philip Rivers

29. Shedeur Sanders

30. Quinn Ewers

31. Brady Cook

32. Kenny Pickett

The best defenses of the week are the Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Saints, and Eagles, with honorable mentions to the Vikings, Broncos, Titans, and Broncos.