The Patriots will look to bounce back on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, where a win for New England would clinch their first playoff berth since 2021.
Although the Patriots can’t win the division this week, New England still controls its own destiny both in the AFC East race and for a playoff berth after last Sunday’s loss to the Bills. However, the Pats first loss in 83 days will serve as their first test of late-season adversity under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. New England responded to a 1-2 start by rattling off 10-straight wins but letting a chance to clinch the division slip through their fingers by surrendering a 17-point halftime lead in the loss to Buffalo is a bigger test of their culture.
The Patriots vibes have been some of the best this scribe has ever been around. Vrabel often stresses the importance of culture, with four pillars that make up his definition of team identity: effort and finish, ball security and ball disruption, DTF (details, technique, fundamentals), and making great decisions. However, it’s easy to buy into that identity when you’re rattling off 10-straight games. During his introductory press conference in January, Vrabel shared the same sentiment when outlining his definition of team culture.
“When you get hit in the mouth, or you’re down, or the chips are against you, then you can take a snapshot of what your team looks like, and then you’ll find out what culture you have,” Vrabel said.
Although winning the division by beating the Bills would’ve been nice, we’ll get a gauge of the Patriots mettle coming off a difficult loss. Another Vrabelism is that it’s only a loss if you don’t learn from it, so seeing how New England bounces back will be very telling. From this perspective, the two biggest lessons from last week’s loss are keeping the foot on the gas offensively and being assignment-sound on defense.
The Patriots have had some trouble lately with sustaining offense into the second half. On the season, New England is leading the NFL in scoring offense in the first half (16.7 PPG), but is 22nd in second-half scoring (10.6 PPG). Until last week, the Pats didn’t necessarily need to keep scoring into the second half because their opponents weren’t punching back, but offenses like the Bills, Ravens, and teams they’ll play in the playoffs have the talent to push back. Defensively, the front coordination wasn’t up to standard, with too many poor run fits and inconsistent rush-lane integrity in the pass rush – getting back on track starts there.
As for the matchup with Baltimore, what always comes to mind when playing the Ravens, along with facing their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, is physicality. The Ravens offense ranks sixth in rush EPA, and their defense is first in rush EPA allowed since Week 6 — this is some old-school smash-mouth ball that will be won in the trenches. Get your hard hats ready.
Let’s preview the chess match between the Patriots and Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday night.
Offense Key: Prepping for the Ravens Disguised Zones & Cover Zero Package
Sticking with the theme of learning from the Bills loss, Buffalo’s emphasis on two-high safety and disguising coverage in the second half gave the Patriots offense some problems last week.
According to NextGen Stats, Buffalo ran split-safety shells on 86.7% of QB Drake Maye’s second-half drop-backs, with Maye going 5-of-12 for 47 yards with a pair of sacks in the final two quarters. The Bills majored in cover-two man, while disguising their coverage shell 24.1% of the time. The two-high safeties, designed to take away Maye’s terrific deep-passing ability, and the post-snap coverage rotations stressed the Patriots passing game, presenting both execution and schematic challenges.
On Sunday night, the Patriots will face a Ravens defense that has righted the ship after a rough start. In the first five weeks. Baltimore was on pace to allow the most points in franchise history, surrendering 35.4 points per game, which contributed to its 1-4 start. The Ravens were 30th in total EPA, 29th in drop-back EPA, and last in rush EPA through five weeks. Since then, they’ve flipped the script, allowing the second-fewest points in their last nine games (15.9 PPG), including shutting out Bengals QB Joe Burrow for the first time in his NFL career in Week 15.
The Ravens fixed their defense by making several tweaks and learning to play without standout DT Nmadi Madubuike. After leading Baltimore in total pressures a year ago, the two-time Pro Bowler only appeared in two games this season due to a neck injury (IR). Although their Pro Bowl defensive tackle didn’t return, others did for Baltimore, such as EDGE Kyle Van Noy, while a strategic trade to unlock star S Kyle Hamilton also helped. The Ravens traded pass-rusher Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for S Alohi Gilman, who is now playing free safety, so that Hamilton can roam around the defense closer to the line of scrimmage.
Hamilton is a terrific player who deserves his own paragraph here. He might be the most versatile defender in football, with the Ravens using him at all three levels of the defense. He’s tied for eighth among safeties in total pressures (10), is second in run stops (17), can cover the slot or tight ends in both man and zone coverages, and plays deep safety. As the chess piece of all chess pieces, knowing where No. 14 is at all times will be top of mind for Maye and company.
Schematically, Baltimore is a man-coverage heavy, but they’ve played slightly less man-to-man during their defensive turnaround. The Ravens are ninth in man coverage rate since Week 6 (32.8%), using schemed pressures at one of the highest rates in the league (5.7%), where they’ll show pressure and one coverage shell pre-snap, then spin in and out of sending blitzes.
