The field of National Championship hopefuls began the season at 136 and has now been narrowed down to a field of 12.
The action starts tonight when the No. 8-seed Oklahoma Sooners host the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide in an SEC showdown between two 10-win programs hoping to take the next step toward glory. The winner will go on to face the No. 1-seed Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl.
There are plenty of sportsbooks and betting markets to choose from for those wanting to wager on this game. I’ve taken the time to research and gather the best value on some of the most popular props.
The oddsmakers favor Oklahoma ahead of kickoff as the Sooners are 1.5-point favorites across most of the top sportsbooks on the market. The over/under for the game is currently being offered from 40.5 to 41.5 points.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions and best bets
- Alabama ML: -104 at FanDuel
- Alabama Over 19.5 Total Points: -130 at DraftKings
- Germie Bernard Anytime Touchdown: +170 at FanDuel
Oklahoma gets the nod from oddsmakers, but we’ve seen college football results flip on the rematch. Alabama had a clear advantage in production and control but suffered costly turnovers and too many stalled drives. I expect an improvement in that department to flip the end result here in the playoffs.
The Crimson Tide left their Week 12 disappointed after scoring just 21 points in a loss to Oklahoma. However, the team was plenty productive. Converting and capitalizing on drives is crucial, but unlikely to go as poorly a second time. I like the team to break 20 points tonight.
Germie Bernard has been Alabama’s top pass catcher all season and was a key part of the team’s game plan against Oklahoma a month ago. As the team-leader in touchdowns, I believe he should find paydirt against the team he had seven receptions against earlier this year.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma moneyline analysis
Why Oklahoma could win as the favorite
Best odds: -105 at Fanatics
The Sooners are the projected favorite in this matchup for most major sportsbooks. DraftKings Sportsbook gives Oklahoma the best chance of victory, offering a moneyline of -115, with Fanatics offering the best value to bettors at -105.
You don’t need to look far for a reason to buy into the Sooners tonight. The team bested Alabama just over a month ago on the road. Now hosting this matchup in Norman, the team has a clear upper hand.
The saying goes, “Defense wins championships,” and Oklahoma hopes that motto holds true in this year’s playoff. The team has one of the top units in the country, allowing 13.9 points per game– sixth fewest in the country.
College football is a game often won in the trenches, and Oklahoma also has the advantage there. Alabama’s run game has struggled to find consistency this season, and doesn’t project well against a Sooners team that allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game. Oklahoma could control this game if Alabama can’t find balanced offensive production.
Why Alabama could win as the underdog
Best odds: -104 at FanDuel
Oddsmakers across most of the top sportsbooks view the Crimson Tide as underdogs, but the lines offered vary by platform. Fanatics Sportsbook gives Alabama the best chance to win with a moneyline of -115, while FanDuel provides the best value at -104.
While the Sooners won this game a month ago, the Crimson Tide had the clear advantage on paper. All that matters is the scoreboard, but Alabama had nearly twice as many offensive yards and first downs. This final result could flip if the box score production is similar.
Ty Simpson will need to step up if the Crimson Tide is going to find success this postseason. The junior passer has thrown for over 3,200 yards and 26 touchdowns this season, but has recently entered a production slump. Simpson was once considered a top NFL prospect; he could potentially revive his stock with a great final month of play.
Offensive struggles are the theme of this matchup, but Oklahoma reigns supreme. The Sooners have the lowest-graded unit of all playoff teams, per PFF, and have thrown for under 200 yards in four of their last six games.
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