The first round of the College Football Playoff is in the books. Two of the matchups were close and dramatic, if not actually great football games. We saw a lot of missed kicks and special teams snafus, which reminded us how unique and unpredictable college football can be — even in the postseason.
Two lower-seeded teams pulled off big wins on the road, which means the bracket is a little less chalky now. And this weekend’s results set up some incredibly compelling quarterfinal matchups. Here are my first thoughts on all four:
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami
Cotton Bowl — 7:30pm ET, Dec. 31
On Selection Sunday, I said I felt like Ohio State drew the toughest path to the national championship game. That’s in large part because I thought the winner of Texas A&M-Miami would be a tough out, and the Buckeyes would then (likely) need to get through Georgia in the national semifinals to simply make the title game. Now, I still feel strongly that a potential Ohio State-Georgia semifinal game would be a championship-caliber game, but I’m a little less concerned about the Buckeyes’ opponent in the Cotton Bowl.
Yes, Miami’s defense looked very good for most of Saturday’s game against Texas A&M. Yes, it came up with the game-sealing interception when, quite literally, the game was on the line. But Ohio State’s offense is far better and much more consistent than the Aggies’ was. It has faced elite pass rushers and still controlled the game. And the Buckeyes’ defense is pretty exceptional, too — which means that Miami’s offense and its offensive play calling will need to be a whole lot better than it was for most of the first-round game. The ‘Canes got too cute too often and didn’t realize they should just hand the ball off to Mark Fletcher Jr. until late in the game. Miami will have to trust Carson Beck to go out there and try to win the game against Ohio State; playing like you’re scared of Beck making mistakes (which he does do in big moments) is not what’s going to get Miami to the semifinals.
You can expect a ton of NFL scouts tuning into this game. Linebacker Arvell Reese might very well end up the first of five Buckeyes taken in the first round of April’s NFL draft. Meanwhile, Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. are both projected to be taken in the top 10. And, even though they’re not yet draft-eligible, all eyes will be on star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney, too.
Highlights from Sayin’s dominant debut season
Watch the top plays and moments from Julian Sayin’s 2025 season, in which he stepped in as a first-time starter and didn’t miss a beat for one of the country’s elite teams in Ohio State.
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon
Orange Bowl — noon ET, Jan. 1
I love matchups that pit strength against strength, and that’s exactly what this quarterfinal game should give us. On one side, we have Texas Tech’s elite pass rush, led by a pair of consensus All-Americans in David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez. We all spilled a lot of ink this offseason about the money Texas Tech (and its billionaire mega-booster Cody Campbell) spent to build this defense, and you know what? It worked. This has been, undoubtedly, one of the best defenses in the country. The Red Raiders have a plus-17 turnover margin on the season (tied with Indiana for best in FBS) and generate one of the nation’s highest pressure rates. They rank first in the country in rushing defense (allowing 68.46 rushing yards per game), fifth in total defense (allowing 254.4 yards per game) and fifth in opponents’ plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage (33 such plays allowed all season).
And, on the other side: Oregon’s ultra-explosive offense, which we just saw in all its glory in its first-round beatdown of James Madison. The Ducks scored touchdowns on each of their first five possessions, never needing more than five plays per drive to find the end zone. None of Oregon’s first-half drives took longer than three minutes — and that was with a bunch of banged-up receivers nowhere near 100 percent healthy. An offensive line that’s a finalist for the Joe Moore Award certainly helps, too, but everyone involved in the offensive game planning and execution deserves credit for this offense when it is firing on all cylinders. Heading into the quarterfinal round of the CFP, Dante Moore is playing his absolute best and with a ton of confidence. He’s playing so well he will likely have no option but to declare for the NFL draft (and be taken very, very high).
This should be such a fun and physical matchup, and it’ll surely cement the winner as a true national title contender — if it wasn’t already.
Highlights: Moore was a ‘special weapon’ in 2025
Check out the best plays and moments from Dante Moore’s breakout 2025 season leading the Oregon Ducks’ offense.
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama
Rose Bowl — 4pm ET, Jan. 1
Yes, you read that right. The Indiana football team is the No. 1 seed — and favored by a touchdown over the Alabama football team. It’s Curt Cignetti’s world, and we’re all just living in it. In all seriousness, this matchup is a microcosm of the state of the sport. The Hoosiers had lost more games than any other program in college football history, but they hired a great head coach who turned Indiana into a powerhouse seemingly overnight. Now, they’ve even got the program’s first Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Now, the Hoosiers are a ways off from the kind of success and blueblood status that they’ll see on the opposite sideline, but they do represent a new world order in college sports — one that allows programs historically known as doormats to prosper with the right hires, the right development and the right roster investment.
To earn this No. 1 seed, Indiana had to beat Oregon, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. Those were four tough games with opponents that oozed NFL talent. To advance to the CFP semifinals, the Hoosiers will have to beat another extremely talented team in Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been inconsistent at times this season, but it is a team with a very high ceiling — as we saw after Alabama fell behind 17-0 to Oklahoma and stormed back to a 34-24 victory on the road in the first round. Ty Simpson and his talented receiving corps will present a big challenge for the Indiana defense, but it did just stymie a Heisman Trophy finalist (Julian Sayin) and two of the best receivers in the country (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate) in the Big Ten title game.
A fun subplot to this one? The coaches’ familiarity with the opposing programs. Cignetti spent five years at Alabama as an assistant under Nick Saban, while current Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer and his defensive coordinator Kane Wommack spent the 2019 season at Indiana.
Highlights: Best of Mendoza’s incredible season
Watch highlights from Fernando Mendoza’s 2025 season at Indiana, which saw the quarterback skyrocket up NFL draft big boards and become a finalist for the Heisman Trophy.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Sugar Bowl — 8pm ET, Jan. 1
After two first-round CFP games that doubled as regular-season rematches, we’ll get a third in the quarterfinal round. Georgia beat Ole Miss, 43-35, in Athens back on Oct. 18. That feels like a lifetime ago, considering all the Lane Kiffin drama that has ensued since. He won’t be on the sidelines for the Rebels in New Orleans, so that’s one big change from the first meeting. It’ll be up to new Ole Miss head coach (and former defensive coordinator) Pete Golding and a good portion of the 2025 offensive staff (on loan from LSU) to flip the script this time.
And it won’t be easy. Georgia has been playing championship-level football over the past six weeks or so. The way the Bulldogs put together complete, dominant performances against Texas and then Alabama in the SEC championship game is what leads me (and others) to believe this Georgia team can win it all this year. The pressure in this matchup will fall on the Dawgs’ defense, which is tasked with reining in one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.
But, as long as the Georgia defense gets a few key stops, it should be more than OK. Gunner Stockton and Co. should again be able to go up and down the field against this porous Rebel defense, putting up enough points to advance.
