So the simplest scenario for the Panthers includes beating the Seahawks while the Bucs lose to the Dolphins. In that case, the Panthers would clinch the NFC South title heading into Week 18, since they’d be two games up in the head-to-head with one to play.
But the Panthers can also clinch the division by winning at Tampa Bay in Week 18, regardless of any other results, since division record is the first tiebreaker, and that would leave them 4-2 in the NFC South to Tampa Bay’s 3-3.
There are tiebreakers that favor the Buccaneers, which give them an opening here, too.
In fact, if Tampa Bay wins its final two games of the season, the Bucs are in regardless of the Panthers result in Week 17.
That’s because the Bucs hold a tiebreaker edge in common games (meaning the eight games against the AFC East and NFC West they played this year as part of the divisional rotation).
The Panthers are 3-4 in those games this season, with wins over the Rams, Dolphins, and Jets, along with losses to the Bills, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals. The Buccaneers are 4-3 in those games so far, beating the Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, and Jets, while losing to the Patriots, Bills, and Rams. So if the Bucs beat the Dolphins this week, they’d be 5-3 in common games, and the Panthers couldn’t catch them. If it gets to that point, the Panthers’ Week 2 loss at the Cardinals will loom large, since the Panthers have a 6-4 to 5-6 edge in conference record, which is the fourth tiebreaker.
