If you live in the eastern half of the United States or Canada, you might have been teased. An early-season snow that dusted New York City and blanketed Toronto offered a postcard-perfect December. But as Christmas approaches, the atmosphere has undergone a Grinch-like shift.
Warm weather moving into the East is making it more likely that those lingering snowbanks will turn into slush, dimming the hopes of waking up to a white Christmas. But storms developing out west offer a twinkle of possibility.
The standard for ‘white’
What actually constitutes a white Christmas depends on where you’re celebrating.
In the United States, the National Weather Service sets a bar: at least one inch of snow must be on the ground on Christmas morning, or at least one inch must fall during the day. To the north, Canadians have a slightly different measure.
Environment Canada, the country’s forecasting agency, says at least 2 centimeters (about 0.8 inches) of snow must be on the ground at 7 a.m. A white Christmas is so reliable by that measure that meteorologists also track a “perfect Christmas” — a somewhat rarer event in which not only is there snow on the ground, but snow is actively falling as presents are opened. This year, however, even that standard is in jeopardy.
How often do you see fresh snow on Christmas?
Percentage of years since 2009
Trace amounts1 inch or more
A ‘Hawaiian Christmas’ in the East
“Unfortunately, a white Christmas across most of the country is looking less likely this year,” said Shawn Carter with the Weather Service in the United States..
Since cold snaps in early December, a stubborn weather pattern has pumped above-average temperatures into the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. While quick-moving systems could provide a last-minute replenishment for parts of Eastern Canada and the higher elevations of New England, the broad outlook is bleak for most snow-lovers.
“For the best chance of a guaranteed white Christmas, I’d look to northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula,” Dr. Carter said.
In New York City, the drought has been historical: Until last year, Central Park hadn’t seen a formal white Christmas in 15 years. At 7 a.m. on Christmas Day last year, the snow on the ground was measured right at an inch in Central Park.
The song born in the sun
American culture’s most enduring anthem of winter nostalgia was written under a palm tree. Irving Berlin began composing the song “White Christmas” around 1938 while working in Southern California. “He was spending a lot of time in Hollywood,” said James Kaplan, the author of the book “Irving Berlin: New York Genius.” He said Mr. Berlin, who grew up on the Lower East Side, may have been nostalgic for the snow.
In his original, rarely heard introductory verse, Mr. Berlin made his feelings clear on the difference between a Los Angeles Christmas and one back East:
“The sun is shining, the grass is green, the orange and palm trees sway. There’s never been such a day in Beverly Hills, L.A. But it’s December the twenty-fourth, And I am longing to be up north.”
When Bing Crosby recorded the song in 1942, that verse was cut, stripping away the song’s California context and turning it into a universal longing for a snowy past. At the time, New York City was in the grips of a snowless streak that mirrors the recent 15-year drought; the city didn’t see a white Christmas from 1930 until 1945, a few years after Bing Crosby recorded the song and a few months after the end of World War II.
Since then, others have uncovered the missing verse and added it to their own versions of the song.
Hope in the High Country
This year, even Beverly Hills is facing a dreary holiday. A powerful storm system is expected to pummel the California coast with rain just in time for Christmas Eve.
For those willing to drive into the clouds, the story changes. The Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains are expected to receive a significant dumping of “skiable” snow from this same West Coast storm system. Forecasters are already warning travelers heading to the mountains to go early; the very snow expected to make the holiday white is likely to make the roads treacherous by Christmas Eve.
A dwindling tradition
The maps below illustrate a sobering trend. Four years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its 30-year climate baselines, revealing that white Christmases have become statistically scarcer. While some areas see year-to-year spikes, the long-term data show more regions experiencing a decrease in snow probability than an increase.
As the planet warms, the “ones we used to know” are becoming harder to find. For much of the continent this year, the dream of a white Christmas will remain just that — a song on the radio and a memory of winters past.
Notes and sources
The snow depth forecast is for 12 a.m. Eastern on Christmas Day and is the prediction as of 1 a.m. Eastern on Dec. 22. There is higher uncertainty in parts of the Canadian forecast.
Analysis of historic snowfall percentages is based on the Gridded National Snowfall Analysis and shows how frequently it has snowed between 12:00 UTC (7:00 a.m. Eastern) on December 24th and 12:00 UTC December 25th between 2009-2024.
Kenneth Townsend (terrain shading for snow depth map); Natural Earth (terrain and map features); TomTom and Earthstar Geographics via Bing (satellite image for snow depth map); NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (snow depth forecast); National Centers for Environmental Information (historic snowfall probabilities)
