After a chaotic year filled with trade wars, market gyrations and the longest government shutdown in history, the U.S. economy has, once again, proved more resilient than many forecasters feared.
But “resilient” isn’t quite the same thing as “good.”
Many Americans are entering 2026 worried about their jobs, stressed about their finances and unconvinced that things will improve in the new year.
The flow of official economic data resumed last week after a prolonged delay caused by the government shutdown. The reports were muddled by technical quirks related to the shutdown, but on balance they suggested the economy remained stuck in the same uneasy limbo it was in before the data blackout began.
Job growth was decent in November, but unemployment rose. Retail sales were solid, but wage growth slowed. Inflation cooled, but remains elevated.
That mixed picture is far better than the dire forecasts of last spring, when many economists warned that President Trump’s tariffs would lead to runaway inflation, a recession — or both.
Instead, data this week is expected to show that gross domestic product, which measures overall economic output, grew at a robust pace in the third quarter. Full-year data, when it becomes available early next year, is likely to show that output, adjusted for inflation, grew at about a 1.5 percent pace in 2025, a downshift from 2024 but far from a recession.
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