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Housing prices are projected to continue to rise in 2026, but some economists see inflation rising faster.
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While projections for home price growth in 2026 vary, they are often lower than the estimated inflation rate.
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That would extend the current trend of declining housing wealth in some parts of the U.S., where housing prices don’t rise faster than the rate of inflation.
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Home sales have stalled under the weight of high housing costs, which have remained elevated after several years of increased mortgage rates.
Will the value of your home increase in 2026?
The answer is maybe, but it’s likely to depend on where you live and how much impact inflation has on the economy.
An increase in home values strengthens household wealth, giving consumers more confidence and financial flexibility, while also helping to stimulate broader economic activity. Rising home prices also signal trends in housing demand, interest rates, and overall market health.
Some economists predict that house prices will gain value in 2026.
The National Association of Realtors expects home prices to continue to rise in 2026, with Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projecting home price appreciation of 4% next year. That’s better than the inflation rate projections tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation coming in at 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026. If those projections hold, housing wealth would rise in 2026.
“Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining,” Yun said.
But not everyone is as optimistic. Fannie Mae is projecting a more modest rise of 1.3% in 2026, while Zillow is similarly projecting a 1.2% rise in housing prices, both of which are below the expected inflation levels.
“With new listings outpacing demand and mortgage rates still elevated, affordability remains tight, easing price pressure,” the Zillow forecast stated. “That gives buyers modest leverage and keeps appreciation muted.”
One reason that some economists are projecting slower housing price growth is that more houses are expected to be available on the market.
The increase in inventory will give homebuyers more options, and with mortgage rates expected to remain around 6% in 2026, borrowing costs are expected to keep a lid on the number of house hunters in the market.
“Housing supply has increased in recent months, which will ease home-price growth and provide more housing options for prospective buyers,” said Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni in a release. “The increase in inventories will put downward pressure on home prices across the country.”
Economists also point out that home price changes have varied by location, with many of the pandemic-era hotspots showing signs of cooling off.
A leading indicator of housing prices recently showed that some major metropolitan areas were seeing strong housing price growth, led by Chicago with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%.
“The geographic rotation is striking. Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
Redfin also projects that housing markets will continue to diverge in 2026. The real estate firm projected that the New York City suburbs would be among the hottest housing markets next year, including Long Island and the Hudson Valley in New York, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut. Other housing hotspots are likely to include Cleveland, St. Louis, Syracuse, Minneapolis, and Madison, Wisconsin.
“The Midwest and Great Lakes regions have wide appeal because they’re fairly affordable and provide relatively safe havens against climate-related events like wildfires and floods,” Redfin stated.
Meanwhile, Redfin projected that Miami would continue to cool off in 2026, along with its Florida neighbors Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. San Antonio, Austin, and Nashville were also projected to experience a cooling housing market.
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