One of Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s favorite statistics is the state’s 96,000-unit housing shortage, but analysts say the number is more complicated than it seems at first blush.
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Since he took office in 2023, Gov. Wes Moore (D) has made housing a focus of his administration, and nearly every speech, proclamation and press release since then has featured the state’s 96,000-unit housing shortage.
Does that mean there are 96,000 unhoused people in the state? Hardly. The number is the end product of a complicated formula that measures “latent demand” for housing, but analysts say it’s a solid number and a good starting point for discussions on the issue.
“These are regional measures of housing ecosystems,” said Anjali Kolachalam, policy manager for Up for Growth, a nationwide nonprofit that focuses on easing the far-reaching housing crisis through new housing development.
“What it doesn’t mean is that you can look out your window and see hundreds of thousands of people unhoused … that there are 100,000 people on the streets of Maryland waiting for a house.”
The number comes from Up For Growth’s Housing Underproduction Report. The organization released the 2025 Housing Underproduction Report late last month, which nudged Moore’s favorite statistic down slightly, from a 96,000-unit shortage for the 2023 report to a 94,000-unit housing shortage for 2025.
The report compares available housing units to the “latent demand” of housing in a region, based on the housing market, Kolachalam explains.
“Underproduction is basically a measure of ‘housing you have’ and ‘housing you need,’” she said. “The ‘housing you have’ is basically the existing housing units, second and vacation homes and uninhabitable units. These are units that are currently renter or owner occupied, or they couldn’t be inhabited anyways.”
“Housing you need” reflects demand and includes households that “should have formed but didn’t” due to high housing costs or lack of options, she said.
“Missing households is basically a measure of latent demand,” Kolachalam said. “Latent demand is represented by kids who can’t move out of their parents’ place. Or, people who have more than one roommate when maybe they are looking to live alone because they are a little bit older.”
In the 2025 analysis, Up for Growth determined that nationwide housing underproduction reached 3.78 million units, according to the most recent report reflecting 2023 data. That’s a decrease from the previous report, which found a 3.85 million unit underproduction nationally. Underproduction peaked during the 2021 housing market at 3.89 million units.
The report shows a similar decrease in Maryland over the last two years. The 2023 Housing Underproduction Report shows that Maryland faced an underproduction of 96,000 units in 2021, which is the figure used in a recent executive order Moore issued to reduce administrative hurdles for new development to address the “shortage of at least 96,000 housing units.”
It may seem like an improvement to Maryland’s housing supply, but analysts warn that tracking “housing underproduction” is a complicated data point.
A reduced number does not always mean that more houses have been built, though that could be a factor, the report notes. In some metro areas, such as Baltimore, reduced underproduction could indicate a decrease in demand as people leave those areas for more affordable locations.
“The modest improvement in regional housing market conditions can be linked to concurrent increases in supply and reductions in demand in urban centers,” the report said. “At the same time, housing starts and unit deliveries were strong across many of those same metro areas. High levels of permitting activity in 2022 … ushered in a 15-year production high of single-family detached homes and the highest new apartment construction since 1987.”
A recent report from the Comptroller’s office reported that from 2010 to 2023, Maryland saw 2.3 million residents move to other states. In the report, Comptroller Brooke Lierman said that outmigration is a symptom of the state’s housing affordability crisis.
The Moore administration is not taking any victory laps yet.
“The decrease of 2,000 units estimated by the report is a statistically insignificant change in a statewide context,” said a statement from the Department of Housing and Community Development. “More critical to evaluate is our current rate of housing production. At this rate, Maryland’s 94,000-unit shortage would take another 50 years to address.
“Next week, the Department will publish housing production targets for the State of Maryland that will estimate the needed production rate to solve the state’s housing shortage,” the statement said.
Regardless, housing affordability still tops the list as the No. 1 concern from Maryland voters, with nearly a quarter saying it is the biggest problem facing the state, according to polling by the Maryland Association of Realtors. It said one in three Maryland families are cost-burdened by their monthly rent or mortgage payment, including 52% of Maryland renters who pay more than 30% of their income on rent.
Meanwhile, there’s debate on how useful tracking underproduction is as a data point, as state officials, developers and advocates work to tackle housing unaffordability in the state.
“The 96,000-unit housing shortage figure is a useful starting point,” said Aaron Greenfield, director of government affairs with the Maryland Multi-Housing Association, in a written statement. He noted that Maryland has a “significant supply deficiency.”
“It helps highlight the scale of the challenge, but it does not fully capture the complexity of Maryland’s housing needs, particularly in the rental housing market,” he said. “While 96,000 units communicates the magnitude of the problem, Maryland must focus not only on the total number but also on ensuring we can actually deliver the right mix of housing across income levels.”
Matt Losak, executive director of the Montgomery County Renters Alliance, says that while looking at the state’s “underproduction” metric may help with future planning of housing needs, it does “nothing” to make housing more affordable for those struggling now.
“They’re talking about folks who would move here in the future in anticipating the growth of our population,” Losak said. “They have nothing to do with protecting or preserving the affordability and quality and stability of existing households.”
Losak and other renter advocates support policies such as “good cause evictions” and rent stabilization to help keep people comfortably housed in the state. He is skeptical of having a singular focus on building new units.
“There is a theory that we can build our way out of the unaffordability and instability, but that theory is pockmarked with numerous holes,” he said. “The landlord-developer industry is not going to build their way out of profits … While we have no problem with people building more housing, more types of housing, we just don’t believe that policy is a substitute for renter protections.”
