Packers playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Green Bay to win NFC North

NFL Week 17 picks include Jaguars, Steelers and Niners

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The Green Bay Packers appeared to be on their way toward taking control of the NFC North during their Week 16 game against the Chicago Bears.

Instead, the Packers blew a 10-point lead late in regulation after Romeo Doubs failed to handle an onside kick. That allowed Chicago to earn a come-from-behind win in overtime and make Green Bay a longshot to win the NFC North.

The good news for the Packers? They have already clinched a playoff berth despite losing star players like Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons to season-ending injuries. The Detroit Lions’ loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas guaranteed the Packers their sixth playoff berth in seven seasons under Matt LaFleur, and third consecutive postseason appearance.

Now, the Packers will be hoping to get back into the NFC North race and earn a first-round bye over the final two weeks of the season.

Here’s what to know about the Packers’ playoff chances and their odds of winning the NFC North as they gear up for a key Week 17 clash against the Baltimore Ravens.

Packers playoff chances

The Packers officially clinched an NFC playoff berth after the Lions lost to the Vikings on Christmas Day. Before Detroit’s loss, Green Bay had an estimated 94% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 17, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

Packers playoff scenarios

The Packers have already clinched a playoff berth and now will look to see if they can get back into the NFC North race.

Green Bay’s path toward overtaking Chicago in the NFC North race is narrow and would require a lot of help from the Bears’ opponents to make that happen. Here’s how the Packers can catch the Bears over the final two weeks of the season.

• Bears lose final two games AND Packers win final two games, OR
• Bears lose final two games AND Packers win one of final two games, tie the other, OR
• Bears lose one game, tie the other AND Packers win final two games.

The first path remains Green Bay’s most likely to an NFC North title, as there has only been one tie to date during the 2025 NFL season entering Week 17.

NFC North standings

The Packers enter Week 17 in second place in the NFC North standings. They will finish the week there regardless of their results, as they are a game-and-a-half back of the first-place Bears. Neither the Lions nor Vikings will be able to catch them over the season’s final two weeks.

Here is a full look at the NFC North standings:

1. Chicago Bears (11-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
4. Detroit Lions (8-8)

The Packers are the only team that could potentially catch the Bears in the NFC North race. They can finish ahead of the Bears if they win out and and Chicago loses out.

In the unlikely event the Bears and Packers end up tied in the NFC North standings, Green Bay would win a tiebreaker over Chicago. The duo split their season series, but the Packers are guaranteed to have a better divisional record than the Bears, as Green Bay currently sports a 4-1 mark in the division while Chicago is 2-3.

Packers remaining schedule

The Packers have the 11th-easiest remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon, as neither of their remaining opponents entered Week 17 with a winning record.

Below is a look at the Packers’ remaining schedule:

• Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
• Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Bears remaining schedule

While the Packers have an easier-looking schedule, the Bears are facing the eighth-hardest remaining schedule. That will give the Green Bay faithful some hope the team can catch Chicago in the 11th hour.

Below is a look at the Bears’ full schedule:

• Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
• Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (8-8)

NFC North division winner odds

The Bears are, unsurprisingly, heavily favored to win the NFC North, according to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chicago Bears (-800)
• Green Bay Packers (+550)

NFL playoff picture

Here’s how the AFC and NFC stack up for Week 17:

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West leaders)*
2. New England Patriots (12-3, AFC East leaders)*
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, AFC South leaders)*
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, AFC North leaders)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, wild card No. 1)*
6. Buffalo Bills (11-4, wild card No. 2)*
7. Houston Texans (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (8-7), Baltimore Ravens (7-8).

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3, NFC West leaders)*
2. Chicago Bears (11-4, NFC North leaders)*
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, NFC East winners)*
4. Carolina Panthers (8-7, NFC South leaders)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4, wild card No. 1)*
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4, wild card No. 2)*
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.