Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Atlanta Falcons on “Monday Night Football.”
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
The 11-4 Rams are a touchdown favorite and need the win to keep pace with the San Francisco 49ers, who won their 12th game on Sunday. Matt Bowen, Liz Loza and Pamela Maldonado offer their picks, prop bets, daily fantasy sports plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:
Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bet
Rams team total OVER 29.5
Maldonado: The Rams average 30.5 points per game and score touchdowns on a league-high 36% of drives. This matchup only amplifies that edge. The Falcons blitz at one of the highest rates in the league and live in Cover 3, both of which Matthew Stafford has shredded all season. Add elite play-action efficiency, heavy-personnel success against light fronts and a massive turnover margin advantage, and 30-plus points is the most likely outcome. Heck, 40-plus is possible.
Week 17 picks
Notable player props, bets
Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua should have their way with the Falcons defense on Monday. Harry How/Getty Images
Kirk Cousins over 33.5 pass attempts (-117), over 0.5 INTs (-159)
Loza: Cousins has registered at least 30 pass attempts in four consecutive efforts while going over 34 in back-to-back outings. The 37-year-old may be out of the playoff running, but his “never say die” attitude figures to be on full display as he showcases his talents in the hopes of gaining a starting gig in 2026. He’s facing a Rams’ defense that is easier to beat via the air than the ground, inviting the sixth-most pass attempts over the last four weeks (34.75 per contest). The Rams defense has additionally recorded the sixth-most picks (15) on the season (and three since Week 14). Meanwhile, Cousins has tossed four INTS over his last five outings. Urgency on the part of both Cousins and L.A.’s defense should result in the over on each of the above props.
Passing props
Rushing props
Puka Nacua over 8.5 receptions (+116)
Bowen: Nacua has at least nine receptions in back-to-back games. And with Davante Adams (hamstring) still down, we should expect the volume to remain steady for Nacua in Sean McVay’s schemed-up pass game.
Receiving props
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,300) has at least 167 receiving yards in three straight games, with multiple touchdowns in two. And he’s going to see the ball at a high rate versus Atlanta. Take the sure thing.
Also in my lineup: Blake Corum ($4,600) has seen 12 or more touches in three straight games and has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four. With the Rams now running a backfield split with Corum and Kyren Williams, this is good value in the lineup.
All of ESPN. All in one place.
Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Matthew Stafford ($16,200) has been on a tear, clearing 360 passing yards in back-to-back efforts while recording a 28:3 TD:INT ratio since Week 7. As road favorites, Stafford might not have to do a whole lot at Atlanta. Still, on the heels of a gutting defeat against a division rival, I expect the intensity to be at peak levels.
Also in my lineup: Kyle Pitts Sr. ($8,800). Cousins appears to have been key in motivating Pitts’ turnaround. The veteran QB has regularly relied on his tight end, averaging 7.4 targets to the position (inside the top 10) over his career. Drake London’s return might take a few looks away from Pitts, but with the Rams’ D-line bringing pressure, Cousins figures to stick with his “new” old reliable.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,300) torched Cover 3 all season with elite yards per route and target share. If the Rams do push 30-40 points, Nacua is most certainly involved.
Also in my lineup: Matthew Stafford ($10,800) has been lethal against pressure with absurd touchdown efficiency and zero interceptions. Pairing Stafford with Nacua captures max correlation. A three-touchdown game and an MVP resume builder is on deck.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
-
The Rams are 11-4 ATS this season, the highest cover percentage in the NFL. They have covered three straight games.
-
The Rams are 10-3 ATS as favorites and 5-1 ATS as road favorites. They are 3-0 ATS after a loss and 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
-
Four straight Rams games have gone over the total.
-
Kirk Cousins is 5-10 outright and ATS on Monday Night Football, but he is 5-1 outright and ATS in his last six instances in that role (2-0 with Falcons).
