EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Quarterback Justin Herbert will not play in the Los Angeles Chargers’ Week 18 matchup at the Denver Broncos, coach Jim Harbaugh said Monday.
Trey Lance will start the game at quarterback and practice squad quarterback DJ Uiagalelei will be the backup, according to Harbaugh. Herbert, who fractured his left hand four weeks ago, will not dress.
“He’s got bruises that need to heal,” Harbaugh said of Herbert.
Herbert had surgery to stabilize the fracture exactly four weeks ago. He suffered the fracture in the first quarter of a Week 13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert started one week after the surgery in a Monday night win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He has not missed a start since the injury.
The Chargers (11-5) could potentially rest other starters for the game against the Broncos, but he did not specify any players outside of Herbert. Harbaugh said the team will “see how the week transpires” before making the decision on which starters will play.
“Those conversations will take place during the week, and they’ll be made as an organization,” Harbaugh said.
The Chargers are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC, though they could drop to No. 7 with a loss. They have already clinched a playoff berth. They could move up to the No. 5 seed with a win over the Broncos and some help elsewhere. Harbaugh is instead prioritizing the health of his quarterback as the Chargers prepare for a road playoff game.
The move will perhaps have the biggest impact on the Chargers’ opponent, as the Broncos would clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye with a win. The New England Patriots would get the top seed with a win over the Miami Dolphins and a Broncos loss, while the Jacksonville Jaguars would get the top seed with a win over the Tennessee Titans and losses by the Broncos and Patriots.
Denver’s big break
When Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton was asked Monday to sum up the challenge his team faced in Week 18 against the Chargers, with the No. 1 seed on the line, he responded succinctly.
“Justin Herbert’s one of the best players in the world,” Singleton said. “We’re going to have to focus on that, especially defensively.”
In other words, the Broncos have caught a massive break. They need not apologize for it. Denver (13-3) put itself in position to capitalize on an opponent’s roster-management decisions by winning 11 straight games after its September loss to these same Chargers.
Still, the decision by Harbaugh to sit his MVP candidate quarterback changes the formula significantly for Denver. The Broncos have lost three straight games to the Chargers dating back to last season, and Herbert’s heroics have factored heavily into those defeats.
His third-and-long scramble in Week 16 last season helped seal a win that ultimately dropped Denver to the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. In Week 3 this season, the Broncos led by a touchdown in the fourth quarter when Herbert broke out of a would-be sack, avoided another defender and threw a game-tying touchdown pass to Keenan Allen against tight coverage. It’s an entirely different challenge than almost any other quarterback in the league presents.
The Broncos won’t be upset to not have to worry about Justin Herbert making superhero throws to Keenan Allen. (William Navarro / Imagn Images)
Sean Payton doesn’t figure to allow his team to lose any edge despite not facing Herbert. He’ll no doubt highlight the considerable athleticism of backup QB Trey Lance and point out that the Chargers who do play would like nothing more than to spoil Denver’s top-seed hopes.
The Broncos faced a similar situation last year when, needing a victory at home in the regular-season finale to clinch a playoff spot, Chiefs coach Andy Reid rested most of his starters with the No. 1 seed already secured. The Broncos took advantage with a 38-0 win.
Nobody is asking the Broncos for another shutout. But anything other than a victory in the light of the Chargers’ prudent decision to rest Herbert would be a massive disappointment. — Nick Kosmider, Broncos beat writer
Right decision for Chargers, Herbert
This is the right decision from Harbaugh. Regardless of who the opponent ends up being, the Chargers need Herbert at his healthiest if they are going to have a chance in the wild-card round. Herbert took a beating Saturday against the Houston Texans. The offensive line was overmatched, as it has been most of this season amid numerous injuries. Texans edge rusher Danielle Hunter sacked Herbert on the quarterback’s first dropback of the game. Herbert landed hard on his surgically repaired left hand. He was in obvious pain.
Herbert had multiple screws and a metal plate inserted into his hand on Dec. 1. He has battled through this injury to lead the Chargers into the playoffs. Saturday was one of his best games of the season, given the circumstances. There is just more upside in resting Herbert. He will have at least two full weeks between games. That is two full weeks without getting hit or taking any additional damage to his left hand. And let’s be clear: If Herbert plays Sunday, he will get hit. The Broncos have one of the best fronts in football. The Chargers have one of the worst offensive lines on football. The last time the Chargers and Broncos played in Week 3, Herbert was hit 14 times. Tackle Joe Alt was healthy for that game.
The Chargers only have about a 9 percent chance of clinching the fifth seed this weekend, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. They would need to beat the Broncos. Then they would need either a loss from the Texans or a win from the Buffalo Bills and a loss from the Jaguars. The Texans are heavy favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars are heavy favorites against the Titans. It is an unlikely path to the No. 5 seed, even if the Chargers are able to beat the Broncos.
If the Chargers lose and Bills win against the New York Jets, the Chargers would end up as the No. 7 seed. If the Patriots also beat the Dolphins, the Chargers would be heading to Foxboro, Mass., to take on the Patriots in the wild-card round. The Patriots have about a 52 percent chance of finishing as the No. 2 seed.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye will be making his postseason debut. The Patriots only have one win this season over a team that has clinched a playoff berth, the Bills. New England also lost to Buffalo in Week 15.
When asked Monday if any part of this decision involved trying to identify a more favorable wild-card matchup, Harbaugh said, “Health and winning. That’s it. There’s no way to predict. We’re going on the road in the first round. All potential teams would be good, and we’ll get ourselves ready for that.” — Daniel Popper, Chargers beat writer
