Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.
It may still be holiday season, but it’ business as usual here at Goldipucks, where the three players on tap are Alex DeBrincat, Sebastian Aho, and Cale Makar. Which one has been too hot, giving his owners a future lump of coal in their stockings? Which has been too cold, and due to give his owners ongoing gifts into 2026? And who is playing just right, giving their owners a nice comforting cup of cocoa by the fireplace? Go ahead and make your list, check it twice, then lock in your guesses to see if your fantasy instincts are razor sharp going into calendar year 2026. Stats for all three players are current though December 28th games.
Alex DeBrincat (39 GP, 20 G, 20 A, 139 SOG, 18:06 TOI, 12 PPPts, 3:25 PP, 68.4% PP%)
Despite being drafted in the second round, DeBrincat went straight to the NHL, becoming a regular at age 20. He made a quick impact, with 76 points in his second season. But his stats cratered the next season, before he rose to 88 and 78 point rates in the following two campaigns, both of which saw him score at or above a goal per every other game, seemingly signaling his arrival as a sniping scorer. But after that he settled into a three season stretch where his scoring pace was 66-70, although last season his goals per game was nearly back to prior rates. For 2025-26 thus far, he’s on track for his second career point-per-game season. Can it continue? Alas, no, as his metrics suggest he’ll fare worse from here onward.
Although DeBrincat’s SH% is barely above his career rate, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG per game, which would be a good bit higher than his prior best of 3.3. Also, his career SH% rate looks better than it may actually be, as in two of the prior three seasons it was 11.4% and 10.3%. Yes, his SH% was 16.0% last season; but the trend has been downward, making his SH% more suspect than it already would be given his rise to new heights in SOG per game.
DeBrincat’s PPPts do not immediately raise alarm bells, except for the fact that nine of his 12 PPPts have come in the form of PPGs. Interestingly, his PP SH% of 23.7% is virtually identical to last season’s 23.6%, except that for 2025-26 he’s taken 38 PPSOG in 39 games, whereas last season he tallied 55 in 82 games. And if he kept up this PPG pace, he’d end the season with 19 PPG, which would be well higher than his prior best of 14. Also, although DeBrincat’s PP SOG total puts him sixth among all NHL forwards, only one of the five above him has a higher PP SH%, with these providing more reasons for concern.
Although I said that DeBrincat’s PPPts seem fine for him, his PP IPP of 63.2% is a bit high given recent trends. Yes, he was at or above that rate in his two prior best seasons; but since then, it’s been 54.3%-60.0%, including both his seasons in Detroit. Despite things not looking awry in this area, they might well be. It’s also a similar story for his 5×5 SH%, as at 9.9% that would be the second highest rate for him in five seasons for DeBrincat, making it atypical, and not in a good way.
As for his overall IPP, that is 72.7%, which would be a career best. The good news is only once in his career was his overall IPP under 65.3%; however, the bad news is it was 65.3% to 69.3% in six prior seasons, only breaking the 70% barrier once, at 71.8%. While his overall IPP is not grossly inflated, the fact it has previously held so steady makes a rise of even this small an amount suspect.
On top of all this, there’s DeBrincat’s secondary assist rate. Not surprisingly for a sniper, his norm is for this to be low, as only twice in the past six seasons was it above 35.0%, and in those two seasons it was 41.7% and 48.6%. For 2025-26 though, it stands at 60.0%, which is quite far above what it was in even his two outlying prior seasons.
Lastly, there’s OZ%. DeBrincat’s have never been sky high, as other than a season at 64.4% and another at 49.8%, they’ve been in the 50s throughout his career. That’s why seeing him on pace to nearly match his career best in scoring rate despite an OZ% of 47.3% thus far is eye opening and definitely concerning. And although there are forwards who can produce at or near a point per game with an OZ% that low, those are proven two-way players, which DeBrincat is not.
As you can see, going down the list of metrics DeBrincat is overachieving in pretty much all of them, although admittedly more substantially in some as compared to others. Still, that collectively makes his 2025-26 thus far most certainly TOO HOT, and he gets rating of 8.5, suggesting that he ought to finish the season with a scoring rate of around 75 or perhaps even a tad less.
Sebastian Aho (37 GP, 13 G, 20 A, 84 SOG, 20:00 TOI, 8 PPPts, 3:20 PP, 64.1% PP%)
Grabbed by Carolina as a second rounder in the 2015 draft, Aho went right into the NHL as a teen, producing a solid 49 points. He built upon that with a 68 point pace as a sophomore, before rising to an 80-85 point pace in each of the next three seasons, with many figuring it was only a matter of time before he rose to even higher levels. Indeed he did produce at a 94-point pace in 2023-24; however, in the surrounding seasons, and so far this season, his scoring fell into the 70s. Is Aho on a downward slide from which he won’t bounce back, or is thus just a temporary lull? More likely the former, as Aho looks like he no longer has the makings of a point per game player.
In assessing Aho’s numbers, I was immediately struck by how similar they are to what they were last season as far as TOI, both overall and on the PP. But his SOG rate is on pace to drop for a third straight season and, at 2.3 per game, would mark a career low. His SH% is not benefitting, as it sits right at his career rate. That is not a combination one likes to see. Making matters worse, he’s at 1.7 SOG per game in Q2, and sure enough is producing worse, after a nearly point per game Q1 when his SOG rate was a more normal for him 2.75 per game. In short, things are not heading in the right direction.
Not only is his PP TOI typical for him, but his percentage of time on the PP is as well, making his PPPt pace seem low. But there too he’s been trending downward, making it so his PP IPP of 50%, which seemingly is too low for someone who’s been previously above 70%, less glaring, especially since last season it was 53.5%. Although I do think there is room for a rebound in PP IPP, getting to 70% seems out of reach, and rising even to 60% might be unrealistic.
Aho’s team SH% at 5×5 is 9.1%, which is not great for a top line player. Yet he’s never been in double digits, even in his most successful seasons. He was 9.0% in two of his last four seasons, and 9.8% and 8.6% in the other two, suggesting he does not have realistic room for an increase in the normal course. Then there’s his OZ%, which, at 65.6%, is pacing for not only a career high, but to increase for the fifth straight season. Although it’s a concern he’s not scoring more despite this higher OZ%, at least this trend suggests it’s unlikely to fall. But his secondary assist rate, at 33.0%, must be low? Nope – for him it’s not, but rather is right in his usual range of recent seasons.
Let’s take a look at player comparables for Aho. Four times by age 24 he had a scoring rate of 0.95+ on top of a SOG rate of 2.6 or higher and a goals per game rate of 0.35+. Going back to the 2000-01 season, centers who also accomplished these feats a total of four or more times are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares, Staven Stamkos, Auston Matthews, and Jack Hughes. That is impressive company in which to find oneself; however, unlike Aho they all had several seasons of 90+ scoring rate among those campaigns, whereas he made it to 90+ just once, and not until later. In fact, if we look at centers who, like Aho, had four instances of scoring rates of 0.9 to 1.1 by age 24, we get Anze Kopitar and Mats Sundin. By this point in Sundin’s career he’s taken it to the next level, whereas Kopitar had not, and might make for the most apt comparison. If so, it both bodes well for Aho, in that he should not see his scoring drop below the 70s, but also not great, as Kopitar only had one point per game season, whereas Aho already has two.
If you’re an Aho owner and looking for reason to hope for him to not only return to point per game output, but perhaps even rise above a 90+ rate again, you should not be holding your breath. Yes, Aho is below several of his normal metrics; however, going by last season those metrics might represent the Aho of old. His OZ% is maxed out, and his 5×5 team SH%, which has never been that great, is normal, as are his TOIs and SH%. Whether Aho may have been able to thrive on another team will be a question many will continue to ask; however, as it stands he’s a Cane and his stats are JUST RIGHT, with a rating of 5.25, as chances are he ends the season right around a 75-point pace.
Cale Makar (37 GP, 11 G, 32 A, 108 SOG, 25:09 TOI, 13 PPPts, 439PP, 75.9% PP%)
Picked fourth overall in 2017, Makar opted to play two years of college hockey but then went directly into the NHL. His impact was immediate, with a 72 point pace in his first season for the Avs. Some might have felt at the time it was too much success and too soon, and he was ripe for a sophomore slump; but instead Makar was only starting to scratch the surface, as he rose to point-per-game output in his second campaign and has paced for 90+ points in every subsequent season. For 2025-26, he is right at the same 95 or so point mark where he’s been the past two seasons despite the Avs firing on all cylinders. Though is this the high water mark for Makar? In short, no, as not only should he finish 2025-26 at a 100-point pace, but more likely 105+ than under 100.
I’d start with player comparables, but Makar defies them, as least in the modern era. For us to land on any defensemen who finished at or above 1.1 points per game with 2.9+ SOG per game and a 9.0% SH% in four of their first six seasons we have to go back to the early 80s, when Paul Coffey did so five times. Beyond him, in the history of the NHL only Ray Bourque managed to meet the criteria more than twice.
Coffey was similar to Makar in that he was superbly skilled and played for a powerhouse team. We can’t be certain how Coffey’s career would’ve unfolded though, as after age 32 injuries took their toll and he was never the same. Before that happened, five times he eclipsed 100 points, although three of those instances were in his first five seasons. It shows that when a defenseman is elite in his own right, and on top of that also plays for an offensive juggernaut, 100 points is well within reach, and not necessarily one’s ceiling.
We know Makar isn’t in uncharted territory. What about his metrics? It is apparent that his PP scoring, which often was near one PPPt per every other game, is too low, at barely over one per every three games. His PPG pace, normally at one per ten games minimum, is well lower. That being said, Makar is shooting more on the PP than last season when he had a career best 12 PPGs; yet whereas then his SH% was 19.4% on the PP, so far it’s 5.9%, which, amazingly, is well under his overall SH% of 10.2%. For certain that should rise, spiking his PPPts, especially since his PP IPP is 72.2%, which is neither high nor low. Also, although the Avs are on pace to be just the second team since 1995-96 to average four goals per game, the 2021-22 Panthers being the other, Florida had 64 PPGs that season, or three per every four games. In contrast, Colorado stands at 20 in 37 games, placing them in the bottom half of the league in terms of total PPGs. What’s most amazing about that is they lead the league with 6:00 in PP time per game. Although that average likely will fall, even if it indeed does, their conversion rate has nowhere to go but up, with Makar being a huge beneficiary.
Otherwise, Makar’s overall TOI is roughly where it should be, as is his SOG rate and percentage of PP time he sees. And his SH% is right near his career rate. So how can he be doing as well as usual despite the PP shortcomings? Keep in mind that although Makar broke out early, this is the season where he’s hitting his 400 game breakout threshold, which makes it plausible he’d find yet another gear.
Colorado’s 11.6% SH% with Makar on the ice is high, even for him, but not by a lot, as other than one season of 8.5% he’s been at 9.3-10.8% his entire career. His OZ% is under 60% for the first time in his career, but that is not a major drop, as previously he’s been in the range of 60.1-64.8%. IPPs tell a similar story, with an overall IPP of 58.1%, very comparable to the 57.9-61.3% it’s been in the past three seasons. As for his 72.2% PP IPP, other than a drop to 64.5% one time, it’s been 68.4-77.8% in the past five seasons. His secondary assists are low for him, at only 37.5%, with him usually being in the 40-50% range. In all, not only are there no red flags, but in fact more reason to see him improving.
Something else we’re also seeing from Makar this season is even more consistency, as thus far he has a point in 78% of all games, versus 67% and 66% in his two most recent seasons. Despite this, he’s managed to be even more explosive, averaging one multipoint game every 3.5 contests, versus each of the last two seasons when it was just under one per every three contests. To see him making what seem to be gains in both areas shows how amazing a player he is, and again suggests things might only get better.
I’m not sure there are superlatives to describe Makar anymore. The only question seemed to be whether he could hit 100 points. With gains to be had in PPPts and secondary assists, he should only improve, making his 2025-26 TOO COLD, with a rating of 3.25. Look for him to end with a roughly 105 point pace, cementing him as, without question, the best offensive defensemen the NHL has seen in more than a generation.
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Questions for Mailbag
My monthly mailbag is set to run next week and has room for more questions. To get yours to me, send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.
